Sanov meets Cramér again

We introduce a new method for proving large-deviation principles (LDPs). This method amounts to "mixing" a collection of LDPs with a sequence of probability measures that obeys itself an LDP. As an illustration, we construct from empirical measures a sequence of capacity-valued maps that can be considered as an indexed collection of LDPs. The index 1 coincides with Sanov's theorem. By taking a Poisson mixture we establish a new connection with Cramér's theorem.     

Endogenous Growth and Negative Externalities

Received March 5, 2001; revised version received August 5, 2002 Published online: April 30, 2003     

蒙代尔-弗莱明模型在发展中大国的适用与延伸

M-F模型是开放经济宏观经济学的基本模型,其存在的缺陷和局限是理论拓展的主要方向。本文对M-F模型的前提假定和分析过程作出了放松和修正,使其适用于发展中大国的情形。并在M-F模型的货币政策效应分析基础上,提出M-F模型在发展中大国的延伸分析方法,即Semi-M-F模型分析方法,指出发展中大国的货币政策是部分起作用的。最后,对Semi-M-F模型分析方法在中国的应用进行评述。     

Probability theory in fuzzy sample spaces

This paper tries to develop a neat and comprehensive probability theory for sample spaces where the events are fuzzy subsets of The investigations are focussed on the discussion how to equip those sample spaces with suitable -algebras and metrics. In the end we can point out a unified concept of random elements in the sample spaces under consideration which is linked with compatible metrics to express random errors. The result is supported by presenting a strong law of large numbers, a central limit theorem and a Glivenko-Cantelli theorem for these kinds of random elements, formulated simultaneously w.r.t. the selected metrics. As a by-product the line of reasoning, which is followed within the paper, enables us to generalize as well as to bring together already known results and concepts from literature.Acknowledgement. The author would like to thank the participants of the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory for the intensive discussion of the paper. Especially he is indebted to Professors Diamond and Höhle whose remarks have helped to get deeper insights into the subject. Additionally, the author is grateful to one anonymous referee for careful reading and valuable proposals which have led to an improvement of the first draft.This paper was presented at the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory, Linz, Austria, February 5–9, 2002.     

美国贸易逆差:增长惯性与可持续性

美国的经常项目逆差特别是贸易逆差“历史悠久”，尤其是近年来高速增长，已引起人们广泛的关注。1990年代来的美国贸易逆差，已很难单从汇率、贸易政策及产品竞争力等单个变量来加以解释。通过运用滞后一年的时间数列回归分析及相关分析，本文得出的结论是：当期美国贸易逆差是前期美国贸易逆差的惯性增长，并且只要美国能够维持强势美元，资本与金融账户的盈余足够冲抵贸易逆差，美国的贸易逆差便具有可持续性。在本文的最后一部分，作者针对近期美国人制造的“人民币升值论”，结合近10年来中美双边贸易现实，说明美国贸易逆差与人民币汇率之间没有必然联系，人民币升值不可能改善美国的贸易收支状况。     

我国财政支出结构的优化问题研究

当前,我国正处在经济高速发展的快车道,市场经济体系逐步成熟和完善起来,市场逐步放开,市场化程度日益提高.而财政作为国家调控经济的最主要手段,尤其是财政支出方面对整个社会阶层都产生敏感而切身的利益影响.对此,运用实证分析和对比分析等方法针对我国当前财政支出结构的扭曲状况,才能进一步提出优化对策.     

云南第二个百万人口大城市规划设想

本文通过对建立云南第二个百万人口大城市———个开蒙城市群———的必要性和可行性以及其空间结构、职能分工的分析 ,探讨了我国西部地区在用地用水等自然条件受到较大限制的情况下 ,壮大中心城市实力 ,完善区域城镇体系 ,推动城市化整体进程的有效途径     

深化高校财务改革的初步实践

近年来,安徽工业大学在深化财务改革、规范财务管理、开展增收节支等方面进行了一系列有效的尝试 与实践,提高了教育经费的使用效益,促进了全校各项工作目标的实现。     

Real Exchange Rate and External Balance: How Important Are Price Deflators?

This paper contrasts real effective exchange rate (REER) measures based on different deflators (consumer price index, GDP deflator, and unit labor cost) and discusses potential implications for the link—or lack thereof—between the REER and the external balance. We begin by comparing the evolution of different measures of REER to confirm that the choice of deflator plays a significant role in REER movements. A subsequent empirical investigation based on 35 developed and emerging market economies over 1995–2017 yields comprehensive and robust evidence that only the REER deflated by unit labor cost exhibits contemporaneous patterns consistent with the expenditure-switching mechanism. Finally, we show that a standard open-economy model with nominal rigidities and trade in intermediate goods is able to generate these aforementioned patterns.     

关于社会保险的深层次思考

正确认识社会保险税并非一般意义上的税，而是介于税费之间，从而跳出了目前的费改税之争，对当前我国社会保障制度的构建具有重要的指导作用。关于社会保险模式的选择，结合我国实际，针对不同群体可选择“并列型和个人主导型”。运用收支两条线和提高社会保障立法层次构建起社会保障运行的制约机制。同时，要在工会的参与实施下，通过制度规则建企，构建社会保险的补充形式，如企业保险、社区互助等。