Impact of state-dependent oil price on US stock returns using local projections

In this paper, we investigate the impact of oil prices on both aggregate and industry US real stock returns over the period 1973–2017. The empirical analysis contributes to the related literature introducing a state-dependent oil price (high and low) and the local projections approach. Our main finding is that, depending on the nature of the shock and industry, the negative effects of oil price shocks become exacerbated -and the positive effects get moderated- if oil prices are already high.     

Time Inhomogeneous Multiple Volatility Modeling

Price variations at speculative markets exhibit positive autocorrelationand cross correlation. Due to large parameter spaces necessaryfor joint modeling of variances and covariances, multivariateparametric volatility models become easily intractable in practice.We propose an adaptive procedure that identifies periods ofsecond-order homogeneity for each moment in time. To overcomethe high dimensionality of the problem we transform the multivariateseries into a set of univariate processes. We discuss thoroughlythe implementation of the adaptive technique. Theoretical andMonte Carlo results are given. We provide two applications ofthe new method. For a bivariate exchange rate series we comparethe multivariate GARCH approach with our method and find thelatter to be more in line with the underlying assumption ofindependently distributed innovations. Analyzing a 23-dimensionalvector of asset returns we underscore the case for adaptivemodeling in high-dimensional systems.     

区域主导产业发展中的地方政府行为研究

地方政府的活动范围应根据市场发挥作用的程度、社会自治的能力加以界定,更好地发挥市场的作用,优化市场经济运行的环境应是政府行为的着眼点。从地方政府官员的意识、赶超愿望、获得新闻界的关注程度等角度探讨地方政府的行为诱导机制,阐明地方政府财政能力、协调能力等方面是导致区域主导产业畸型增长的内因,提出改变地方政府行政模式,是实现地方政府目标与区域主导产业可持续发展的关键所在。     

Awareness of Distributed Denial of Service Attacks' Dangers: Role of Internet Pricing Mechanisms

Denial of Service (DoS) attacks consist of overwhelming a server, a network or a Web site in order to paralyze its normal activity. The additional parameter in Distributed Denial of Service (DdoS) attacks is the distributing strategy. It means that DDoS attacks do not come from a single computer but stem from all accessible channels and servers. Consequences are multiple, ranging from system errors, temporary inability to access the Web site for normal users to challenging the actual reliability of the Internet. Despite this, Internet users show carelessness. The explanation lies in the specificities of DDoS attacks. We explore possibilities to raise users' awareness about the actual amplitude of problems caused by DDoS attacks. We suggest a careful examination of Internet pricing mechanisms and switching from flat to usage-constraining pricing schemes.     

A comparison of several approximations to the power function of the likelihood ratio test in covariance structure analysis*

In this paper we compare alternative asymptotic approximations to the power of the likelihood ratio test used in covariance structure analysis for testing the fit of a model. Alternative expressions for the noncentrality parameter (ncp) lead to different approximations to the power function. It appears that for alternative covariance matrices close to the null hypothesis, the alternative ncp's lead to similar values, while for alternative covariance matrices far from H_o the different expressions for the ncp can conflict substantively. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the ncp proposed in Satorra and Saris (1985) gives the most accurate power approximations.     

Stability and Segregation in Group Formation

This paper presents a model of group formation based on the assumption that individuals prefer to associate with people similar to them. It is shown that, in general, if the number of groups that can be formed is bounded, then a stable partition of the society into groups may not exist. (A partition is defined as stable if none of the individuals would prefer be in a different group than the one he is in.) However, if individuals' characteristics are one-dimensional, then a stable partition always exists. We give sufficient conditions for stable partitions to be segregating (in the sense that, for example, low-characteristic individuals are in one group and high-characteristic ones are in another) and Pareto efficient. In addition, we propose a dynamic model of individual myopic behavior describing the evolution of group formation to an eventual stable, segregating, and Pareto efficient partition. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, H41.     

《笨花》与《棉花垛》乡土叙述的比较——兼及对《铁凝的<笨花>批判》的批判

《笨花》因为和作者早年的《棉花垛》有相似之处而受人非议。《笨花》以乡土叙述的方式描绘了河北农村的风土人情,但是《笨花》中还混杂了多种西方话语,即宗教、女性话语和民族解放话语,这些与乡土社会本应是相抵牾的。然而作者为了塑造乡土社会的和谐风貌,通过对各种话语的挪移,而使它们与乡土叙述的冲突彻底消解,造成了文本张力的缺失。     

Indonesian Local Government Spending,Taxing and Saving: An Explanation of Pre‐ and Post‐decentralization Fiscal Outcomes*

As a result of Indonesia's decentralization program, local governments have gained significantly more responsibility for service delivery, considerably larger fiscal resources, and much greater authority over the use of those resources than before. The present paper develops a simple budget model to describe and explain the substantial differences in pre‐ and post‐decentralization local government fiscal behavior related to spending, taxing and saving. During the post‐decentralization period special attention is paid to the fiscal behavior of natural resource rich regions. Among other things, the evidence suggests that: post‐decentralization local government spending is partly responsive to increasing needs and partly the subject of elite capture; local government taxation has become more aggressive under decentralization and appears to be mostly driven by local bureaucratic expectations related to routine overhead budgets; and the increased savings of local governments during the post‐decentralization period is determined to a large degree by delayed central government transfer payments.     

Should Chinese Local Governments Be Allowed to Issue Bonds?

I.IntroductionDespite China’s impressive economic growth,its fiscal sustainability has increasinglybecome one of the most watched risk indicators facing the economy.Although China’sexplicit national debtto GDP ratio israther manageable by theOECD standard,at about20 percent of GDP,given its small share of tax revenue to GDP,currently at18.5percent ofGDP,this fiscalsystem may stumble upon major challenges in themedium to long term ifChina’slargecontingent fiscal liabilitiesare als…