The Structural Relation Between Mortgage and Market Interest Rates

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between primary and secondary mortgage markets and the short-term and long-term market interest rates. Using a series of monthly data on fixed rate mortgage rates and GNMA rates, we explore the dependence and speed of adjustment in these primary and secondary mortgage rates to each other as well as to the long and short-term government rates. The results indicate that residential mortgage rates in general, appear to follow the long-term rate and are not very sensitive to movements in the short-term interest rate.     

关于我国农村金融与农业技术进步的实证分析——基于时间序列数据的研究

金融发展通过＂资本积累＂和＂技术进步＂两条途径来实现对经济增长的影响,技术进步才是决定长期经济增长的关键因素。判断（农村）金融能否可持续发展的标准应该是其能否促进（农业）技术进步。基于1985-2005年的时间序列数据的实证分析,认为我国农村金融发展与农业技术进步之间存在着长期的、均衡的、单向因果关系,即农业技术进步对农村金融发展有着推动作用,而农村金融发展对我国农业技术进步的作用不明显。因此,我国农村金融深化改革应该以促进农业技术进步为导向,以实现农村金融资源的优化配置。     

Real wages,inflation and labour productivity in Australia

This article presents an analysis of real wages, inflation and labour productivity interrelationships using cointegration, Granger causality and, most importantly, structural change tests. Applications of tests to Australian data over the 1965 to 2007 period corroborate the presence of a structural break in 1985 and show that a 1% increase in manufacturing sector real wages led to an increase in manufacturing sector productivity of between 0.5% and 0.8%. Comparable estimates for the effect of inflation on manufacturing sector productivity have limited statistical significance. Granger causality test results suggest that real wages and inflation both Granger cause productivity in the long run.     

The non-linear impact of oil price on the oil demand

ABSTRACT

A panel smooth transition regression model was adopted to analyse the non-linear impact of oil prices on oil demand. Data for 42 countries was obtained from the International Energy Agency for the time period spanning from January 1990 to June 2017. The results indicate that a threshold value does exist. Furthermore, when the oil price was lower than this threshold value, a positive relationship between oil price and oil demand was observed. When the price of oil was higher than the threshold value, however, a negative relationship between price and demand was found.     

Does the Reserve Bank of Australia follow a forward-looking nonlinear monetary policy rule?

ABSTRACT

The conventional monetary policy rule describes a simple linear relationship between the domestic interest rate, inflation rate and output gap. An important extension to this rule is to incorporate the forward-looking behaviour of central banks, where it is assumed that they target an expected level of inflation instead of its current realised value. Using quarterly observations for the period 1993:1-2018:2, this paper investigates whether the conduct of monetary policy in Australia can be described by a forward-looking linear monetary policy rule, or by a nonlinear forward-looking monetary policy rule. In particular, the nonlinear forward-looking monetary policy rule is analysed in a regime-switching framework using a smooth logistic transition regression model. While the results show that the conventional forward-looking linear monetary policy rule describes the application of monetary policy in Australia reasonably well, the interest rate setting behaviour of the RBA is best described by a nonlinear forward-looking monetary policy rule.     

Are imports and remittances cointegrated for the Central and Eastern European countries?

In this article, we investigate the existence of long-run common trends between imports and remittances in 11 Central and Eastern European countries which are part of the European Union. Using the Engle–Granger two-step procedure, we determine that for all countries in our sample there are no long-run common trends (no cointegration) between imports and remittances. However, the results are mixed when running a Granger causality test. For nine countries, we can establish either a bidirectional or unidirectional Granger causality, indicating that past values of one variable have predictive content on the other variable. In two countries, there is no Granger causality between imports and remittances.     

Public or Private Sector Wage Leadership? An International Perspective*

Whether a government acts as a wage leader, placing pressure on private‐sector wages (more open to competition), or whether it plays a passive role and merely follows wage negotiations in the private sector, there are important implications for macroeconomic development, particularly in small open economies and/or countries that are members of a monetary union, such as those of the European Monetary Union. With the notable exception of the case of Sweden, opinion on this issue is still divided. In this paper, we look at public‐ and private‐sector wage interactions from an international perspective (18 OECD countries). We focus on the causal two‐way relationship between public and private wage setting, confirming that the private sector, on the whole, appears to have a stronger influence on the public sector, rather than vice versa. However, we also find evidence of feedback effects from public wage setting, which affect private‐sector wages in a number of countries. When the private sector takes the lead on wages, there are few feedback effects from the public sector, while public wage leadership is typically accompanied by private‐sector feedback effects.     

Can the Islamic bank be an emerging leader? A panel data causality analysis

This short note investigates the ability of Islamic banks (IBs) to play a leading role in revamping and driving conventional banking. To this end, we used a panel of 10 major conventional banks (CBs) and 10 IBs over the period 2006–2013. We applied panel regression tests and carried out a panel causality analysis. Our findings identified no significant causality effect from IBs to CBs and indicated that IBs are not able to play a role of leader.