辽宁省金融脆弱性研究

当前关于金融脆弱性的研究集中于国家这一宏观层面，对于省域金融脆弱性的研究还存在相当大的研究空间。正是基于这样一种相对创新性的视角，在对金融脆弱性现有研究进行综述的基础上对辽宁省的金融脆弱性的诱因进行了分析，并提出推动非银行金融机构的发展、拓展规模较大的银行的非利息收益以提升银行盈利能力以及全力清除不良贷款是应对辽宁省金融脆弱性的可行策略。     

War and economy. Rediscovering the eighteenth-century military entrepreneur

Abstract

The detrimental effects traditionally assigned to warfare in the development of pre-industrial economies have obscured the prominent role that military entrepreneurs played in economic development in this period. Historiography minimises the extent to which war and the concomitant strengthening of the central state provided a whole new range of opportunities for capital investment, a tendency that has been strengthened by the paradigm of Redlich’s ‘decline of the soldier-entrepreneur’ and the technological determinism of the debate on the Military Revolution among others. The aim of this introduction is to look into the background of this relative lack of interest and to reaffirm the mutual dependence of eighteenth-century state-formation and the business of war.     

Bank Monitoring and Environmental Risk

Abstract:  Loan announcement effects for 152 Canadian companies are examined to investigate the efficiency of monitoring by banks facing lender environmental liability. Market reaction to the announcement of bank debt to 'environmental' firms is more positive and significant than for 'non-environmental' firms and, for firms in industries with a higher likelihood of experiencing spill events, is more positive and significant, reinforcing earlier results that establish a relationship between specific loan/borrower characteristics and announcement period excess returns and providing further evidence on the 'uniqueness' of bank loans by demonstrating the superior ability of banks to monitor corporate borrowers exposed to environmental liability.     

银行不良贷款违约损失率结构特征研究

本文对中国银行业面临的信用风险违约损失率(LGD)展开研究,以温州某商业银行不良贷款数据为样本,通过描述性统计,对LGD的结构特征:信用风险暴露规模特征、期限特征、地域特征以及担保特征等进行了详细分析。结果表明LGD与风险暴露规模呈负相关,LGD与贷款期限呈正相关,不同地域、不同担保方式的违约贷款其LGD差异性显著。以上这些结论可为商业银行信用风险管理、信贷投放导向以及信用风险监管提供现实帮助。     

Forecasting recovery rates on non-performing loans with machine learning

We compare the performance of a wide set of regression techniques and machine-learning algorithms for predicting recovery rates on non-performing loans, using a private database from a European debt collection agency. We find that rule-based algorithms such as Cubist, boosted trees, and random forests perform significantly better than other approaches. In addition to loan contract specificities, predictors that refer to the bank recovery process — prior to the portfolio’s sale to a debt collector — are also shown to enhance forecasting performance. These variables, derived from the time series of contacts to defaulted clients and client reimbursements to the bank, help all algorithms better identify debtors with different repayment ability and/or commitment, and in general those with different recovery potential.     

商业银行流动性过剩问题的再认识

最近,学术界对商业银行流动性问题议论颇多,议论的焦点是银行的流动性过剩及由此引发的种种后果.本文基于既往研究中值得深思的四个问题,从商业银行超额储备构成出发对流动性过剩的内涵、判断标准及影响因素进行界定,以商业银行保持流动性成因的微观视角管窥我国商业银行流动性过剩问题.在此基础上,本文认为商业银行流动性过剩问题的解决与资本市场的发展并无必然的直接联系,并针对流动性过剩问题的不同形成原因提出了相应的几点看法.     

Property rights protection and access to bank loans

Poor protection of private property has limited the access to bank loans by private enterprises in developing and transition economies. Under those circumstances, private entrepreneurs have resorted to various ways of enhancing the de facto protection of private property. Using a dataset of 3,073 private enterprises in China, this paper empirically investigates the impact of political participation and philanthropic activities – informal substitutes for the lack of formal protection of private property – on the access to bank loans.     

欠发达地区民间借贷的对策研究

近几年民间借贷案件数量不断上升,金融风险问题增多。从民间借贷风险防范的视角,以欠发达地区安徽省某地级市为例,介绍了欠发达地区民间借贷的现状,剖析了民间借贷存在的风险问题,如投资渠道不够畅通、民间借贷市场发展不规范、群众诚信意识不强、群众风险意识薄弱,提出风险防范建议,如加强政府对正规金融的支持、加强金融监管、加强诚信机制建设、增强民众金融素养。     

公共管理新视角:化解和防范村级不良债务

村级债务形成的根源在于传统的行政管理模式。目前村级不良债务化解已经进入攻坚阶段,村本级经济组织有所作为的空间有限,镇级及其以上级政府扮演着重要角色。如何借鉴和运用新公共管理思想来防范新的不良债务,成为完善乡村治理、建设社会主义新农村的重要步骤。     

An Analysis of SBA Loan Defaults by Maturity Structure

The financial intermediation literature on small business lending focuses on the determinants and costs to credit access. There is, however, little research examining the repayment behavior of small firms that actually receive loans. In this paper, we address this shortcoming in the literature by examining the default behavior of a sample of Small Business Administration 7(a) guaranteed loans with three distinct maturity structures. We employ a discrete-time hazard approach and show that SBA defaults are time-dependent and that the factors impacting default behavior, as well as its timing, are maturity specific. Specifically, we show the importance of loan maturity, seasoning, economic conditions, and other firm-specific factors in predicting the likelihood of SBA loan defaults. JEL classification: G21