A Dynamic Analysis of Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Terminations

This paper provides a side-by-side comparison of loan-level statistical models for fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgages. Multinomial logit models for quarterly conditional probabilities of default and prepayment are estimated. We find that the estimated impacts of embedded option values for prepayment and default are generally quite similar across both FRM and ARM loans, providing additional empirical support for the basic predictions of the options theory. We also find that differences in estimates of conditional probabilities of prepayment and default associated with mortgage age, origination period, original LTV, and relative loan size, indicate the continued significance of these other economic and demographic factors for empirical models of mortgage terminations.     

Valuing Mortgage Insurance Contracts in Emerging Market Economies

We develop a new option-based method for the valuation of mortgage insurance contracts in closed form in an economy where agents are risk neutral. While the proposed valuation method is general and can be used in any market, it may be particularly useful in emerging market economies where other existing methods may be either inappropriate or are too difficult to implement because of the lack of relevant data. As an application, we price a typical Serbian government-backed mortgage insurance contract.     

Pricing mortgage insurance contracts under housing price cycles with jump risk: evidence from the U.K. housing market

Previous studies have investigated the determinants of housing price cycles in the housing market; however, we observed the phenomenon of housing price jumps in the 2007 subprime crisis. This paper presents a discussion on the housing price cycle and abnormal price jumps to describe the behavior of housing prices in the United Kingdom. The empirical results show that the impact factors of housing cycles are market risk and the switching factor. Furthermore, the impact factors of jump risks include the bursting of the housing bubble and financial crises. Therefore, in this paper, we employ the Markov switching model with jump risks to value the MI contracts and analyze the influences of housing price cycles, jump risks, risks of market interest rate, and the prepayment risks on MI premiums. The results of sensitivity analysis show that more volatile housing price index returns, as well as longer periods of higher volatility in housing prices, raise MI premiums. Moreover, the MI premium is positively related to the absolute value of the average jump amplitude and the shock frequency of abnormal events. There is the tradeoff between the market interest rate and the prepayment risk. The influences of market interest rate are different on MI premium with/without prepayment risks.     

‘We Live on Estimates': Everyday Practices of Prepaid Electricity and the Urban Condition in Maputo,Mozambique

This article examines the transition to prepaid electricity happening in Maputo, Mozambique, in order to reflect on the contemporary geographies of urban energy infrastructure and urbanization in sub‐Saharan Africa and other cities of the South. The article draws on fieldwork and archival research conducted in 2013 and 2014, arguing that prepayment constitutes a productive juncture in the urban experience of electricity infrastructure in Maputo's postcolonial moment, not merely a neutral technology or a disciplining technique of government (as argued by some scholarship). The article examines the multiple rationalities implicated in the use of the electricity infrastructure via prepayment and the organization of urban life it engenders (and of which it is also a product) by focusing on the everyday practices surrounding prepaid electricity of urban dwellers in neighbourhoods where the ‘modern infrastructural ideal' may never be fully realized. As a result, it contributes to an understanding of the experience of urban energy in cities where ‘slum urbanism', uncertainty and provisionality are dominant aspects of the urban condition.     

先收费后服务对消费者心理的影响

收费时机是定价策略的一个重要组成部分，企业采用先收费的定价策略容易忽略消费者的感受，对品牌关系、态度及行为、甚至对企业的长期利益都可能带来不利影响。本文探讨了先收费对消费者心理的影响机制，并从消费者和企业关系规范的角度提出先收费具体契合哪种社会规范，发现当先收费不符合预期惯例时，消费者的感知风险提高、感知价值（包括感知体贴和感知信任）受损，且便利感受下降，进而影响其态度和行为意愿。所以，先收费被更多地认为是传递了企业想要与消费者建立交易型关系而非互惠型关系的信号。     

The timing of prepayment: A theoretical analysis

This article develops the analytical methods necessary to determine the prepayment patterns of a mortgage contract. The most obvious measure of how many years a mortgage is likely to last is the expected time to termination. It is this measure that we most fully explore. However, since the method employed is able to characterize the probability of prepayment in any given time period, the means is provided to determine any measure of the time to termination.     

Housing-Price Cycles and Prepayment Rates of U.S. Mortgage Pools

Empirical mortgage prepayment models generally have trouble explaining differences in mortgage-prepayment speeds among pools with similar interest rates on the underlying mortgages. In this article, we model some of the sources of termination heterogeneity across mortgage pools, particularly the role of regional variations in housing prices in generating atypical prepayment speeds. Using a sample of Freddie Mac mortgage pools from 1991 to 1998, we compare two classes of empirical models: a rational option-pricing model using a backward-solving pricing algorithm and an empirical hazard model. In both empirical estimation strategies, we find evidence that differences in house-price dynamics across regions are an important source of between-pool heterogeneity. This finding is then shown to be robust to alternative ways of parameterizing pool heterogeneity in mortgage termination models.     

Controlling for Burnout in Estimating Mortgage Prepayment Models

Burnout is a consequence of unobservable predictive variables. This paper describes a methodology for estimating mortgage prepayment models which corrects for burnout. The paper generalizes the approach of Deng, Quigley, and Van Order (Econometrica, 68, 275–307, 1998) and Stanton (Rev. Finan. Stud.8, 677–708, 1995) in modeling the impact of unobservable variables as a probability distribution. The estimator is applied to a sample of loan histories and the results compared to a conventional logit analysis of the data. Predictions and simulations from both models are compared to illustrate the properties of the new estimator.     

INTENSITY-BASED VALUATION OF RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGES: AN ANALYTICALLY TRACTABLE MODEL

This paper presents an analytically tractable valuation model for residential mortgages. The random mortgage prepayment time is assumed to have an intensity process of the form h _t = h ₀( t ) +γ ( k − r _t )⁺ , where h ₀( t ) is a deterministic function of time, r _t is the short rate, and γ and k are scalar parameters. The first term models exogenous prepayment independent of interest rates (e.g., a multiple of the PSA prepayment function). The second term models refinancing due to declining interest rates and is proportional to the positive part of the distance between a constant threshold level and the current short rate. When the short rate follows a CIR diffusion, we are able to solve the model analytically and find explicit expressions for the present value of the mortgage contract, its principal-only and interest-only parts, as well as their deltas. Mortgage rates at origination are found by solving a non-linear equation. Our solution method is based on explicitly constructing an eigenfunction expansion of the pricing semigroup, a Feynman-Kac semigroup of the CIR diffusion killed at an additive functional that is a linear combination of the integral of the CIR process and an area below a constant threshold and above the process sample path (the so-called area functional). A sensitivity analysis of the term structure of mortgage rates and calibration of the model to market data are presented.     

煤炭企业物资采购预付款风险管理与控制

结合当前形势对煤炭企业物资采购预付款风险进行分析,从精细化管理角度出发提出了建立预付款首接风险责任制、供应商管理机制、全程跟踪机制、预警机制、预付款指标奖惩制度和后续管理6个管理机制,以此形成完善的风险防范运行机制,强化风险管理,降低预付款采购风险。