A Bayesian analysis of a variance decomposition for stock returns

We apply Bayesian methods to study a common vector autoregression (VAR)-based approach for decomposing the variance of excess stock returns into components reflecting news about future excess stock returns, future real interest rates, and future dividends. We develop a new prior elicitation strategy, which involves expressing beliefs about the components of the variance decomposition. Previous Bayesian work elicited priors from the difficult-to-interpret parameters of the VAR. With a commonly used data set, we find that the posterior standard deviations for the variance decomposition based on these previously used priors, including “non-informative” limiting cases, are much larger than classical standard errors based on asymptotic approximations. Therefore, the non-informative researcher remains relatively uninformed about the variance decomposition after observing the data. We show the large posterior standard deviations arise because the “non-informative” prior is implicitly very informative in a highly undesirable way. However, reasonably informative priors using our elicitation method allow for much more precise inference about components of the variance decomposition.     

两合计划:从政府需要角度透视其职能转变

立足政府需要,从侧面对当前政府职能转变过程进行分析和探讨,希望以政府本身作为理性实体的运作为基础,对该问题进行解释。     

Designing Optimal Crop Revenue Insurance

When the indemnity schedule is contingent on the farmer's price and individual yield, an optimal crop revenue insurance contract depends only on the farmer's gross revenue. However, this design is not efficient if, as is the case with available contracts, the coverage function is based on imperfect estimators of individual yield and/or price. The producer's degree of prudence and the extent of basis risks have important influences on the optimal indemnity schedule. In this broader context, optimal protection is not provided by available U.S. crop insurance contracts and may include combinations of revenue insurance, yield insurance, futures, and options contracts.     

The effect of exchange rate changes on trade balances in the short and long run

Using generalized impulse response functions, this study tests for the trade J‐curve for three transitional central European countries – the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland – in their bilateral trade with respect to Germany. Our findings suggest that for each country there are some characteristics associated with a J‐curve effect: after a (real or nominal) depreciation the export‐to‐import ratio briefly drops to below its initial value within a few months and then rises to a long run equilibrium value higher than the initial one.     

Strategizing through analyzing and influencing the network horizon

How does a firm keep on being valuable in a network? One requirement is that the firm has a sufficient overview of the network and its dynamics. In other words, a firm's strategy depends on the firm's overview of the network—its network horizon. How comprehensive or limited should its network horizon be? Is it necessary to know the network beyond the direct counterparts? Such issues have not received much attention. In this article, we discuss network horizons and argue that limited network horizons are both inevitable and useful. However, such myopia requires that a firm's counterparts effectively and efficiently mediate between the firm and the rest of the network. Based on a case study, we introduce and discuss three mediating functions of counterparts: a joining, a relating, and an insulating function, and we claim that in order to support a firm's strategizing, managers need to analyze and influence counterparts' mediating functions and thereby the firm's network horizon.     

提高我国自主创新能力的思考

本文依据当代经济发达国家经济社会发展经验的总结,并从我国当前全面建设小康社会的客观需要出发,分析了提高自主创新能力在国家经济社会发展战略中的核心地位,提出构建体制基础和科技基础以及营造生态环境,是推行自主创新战略的基本措施。     

从热工理论基础教学刍议课程改革

热工理论基础是经典、传统、系列化、内容广泛的课程,但对不同专业所需侧重点是不一样的。要 根据不同专业的实际需要,对课程内容和形式进行优化,符合职业技术教育的特点。     

武汉市私营企业发展的理论分析

武汉市同东部沿海城市相比，差距越拉越大，武汉市综合实力在19个副省级城市的排位中不断后移，改变这一格局需大力发展私营企业。武汉市发展私营企业的理论依据一是私营经济发展迎来重要战略机遇期；二是私营经济是全面建设小康社会的发动机；三是发展私营经济是重要的就业平台。     

论我国高等教育产业化的可能途径

笔者通过探讨推动我国高等教育产业化的可能途径以及当前所要解决的问题,并就我国高等教育产业化的发展前景进行了较系统的分析,认为我国高等教育走产业化之路是一种客观必然趋势。