Comparing the True Cost of Living Indices of Demographically Different Households

The comparison of true cost of living indices between demographically different households (relative equivalence scale) is argued to be sensitive to the way demographic characteristics enter demand analysis. In particular, parameters reflecting the cost of demographic characteristics at base prices, though themselves do not have welfare (equivalence scale) interpretation, can alter the benchmark from which demographically varying inflation effects are measured. The empirical analysis, based on a rank‐3 demand system applied to UK individual household data, shows that the inflation adjustment of child benefits can vary with the way demographic costs at base period prices are specified.     

Information–driven trading at the Prague Stock Exchange: Evidence from Intra–Day Data

Many observers argue that informed and insider trading is widespread in the emerging financial markets of transition countries, yet rigorous treatment of this issue has been virtually non–existent. The current paper estimates the extent of informed trading on the Prague Stock Exchange (PSE) using intra–day transaction data. Our estimates confirm that the average share of informed trading is equal to 0.32, which is high relative to developed markets and varies considerably among stocks. Using the Easley et al. (1996) approach on the very best segment of the PSE we obtained a high average probability of informed trading. Since data used in this study cover the period after the major attempts to improve market regulations, our results indicate that the PSE needs further strengthening to recover credibility and to become a real source of corporate financing. JEL classification: G14, G15.     

Changing monetary transmission mechanisms within the EU

The paper presents a comparative analysis of monetary transmission mechanisms and changes in them after the secondERM in March 1983. The empirical model investigates the determination of money, income, prices, and interest rates in Germany, Denmark, and Italy based on the cointegratedVAR model. It provides empirical results on the macroeconomic effects of joining theERM and financial deregulation.     

The impact of Air Service Agreement liberalisation: The case of Nigeria

The positive impact of air transport liberalisation as suggested by economic theories and empirical studies has inspired many developing countries like Nigeria to liberalise some of its Air Service Agreements (ASAs). This paper seeks to examine the extent to which international air service liberalisation has impacted upon Nigeria ten years after it was introduced. The research developed a cross-sectional model with passenger traffic as the dependent variable, while macroeconomic factors (trade and GDP), historical links, distance and ASAs (a proxy for liberalisation) served as independent or predictor variables. The analysis revealed a set of ASA stages in the country's policy-making process (restricted Bilateral Air Service Agreement, Open Skies Agreement and Yamoussoukro Declaration). Further analysis showed that the predictor variables were all significant in explaining passenger demand. The model demonstrated that the liberalisation of market access to the Open Skies Agreement level could stimulate traffic growth by at least 65 percent. The findings can assist in guiding policy and industry stakeholders in future decisions relating to liberalisation and ASAs.     

Estimating Recreation Preferences Using Hedonic Travel Cost and Random Utility Models

Over the last decade, several authors have questioned thevalidity of the hedonic travel cost model, arguing instead that the random utility model is a superior method forvaluing recreational site attributes. This paper demonstrates that the two methods emanate from a similar utilitytheoretic framework; yet in practice these methods differ in the assumptions made in their application.Constraining the underlying utility functions to be consistent, both models are applied to the valuation ofrecreational site attributes in the Southeastern United States. The way in which each method estimates preferencesfor site attributes is shown to depend critically on the method and the functional form of theunderlying utility function.     

Some comments on the Sraffian Supermultiplier approach to growth and distribution

Abstract

The article discusses the Sraffian Supermultiplier (SSM) approach to growth and distribution. It makes 5 points. First, in the short run, the role of autonomous expenditure can be appreciated within a standard post Keynesian framework (Kaleckian, Kaldorian, Robinsonian, etc.). Second, and related to the first, the SSM model is a model of the long run and has to be evaluated as such. Third, in the long run, one way that capacity adjusts to demand is through an endogenous adjustment of the rate of utilization. Fourth, the SSM model is a peculiar way to reach what Garegnani called the “second Keynesian position.” Although, it respects the letter of the “Keynesian hypothesis,” it makes investment quasi-endogenous and subjects it to the growth of autonomous expenditure. Fifth, in the long run it is unlikely that “autonomous expenditure” is really autonomous. From a stock-flow consistent point of view this implies unrealistic adjustments after periods of changes in stock-flow ratios. Moreover, if we were to take this kind of adjustment at face value, there would be no space for Minskyan financial cycles. This also creates serious problems for the empirical validation of the model.     

成功实施六西格玛的若干因素探析

六西格玛是追求完美的管理哲学,它在应用中的首要问题是对其正确的理解,其次是甄别影响六西格玛成功实施的主要因素,文章分析了实施过程中常见的问题及原因。     

Seasonal Adjustment of Employment to Demand and Revenues in Tourist Hotels During Expansion and Stagnation

Abstract

The monthly distribution of employment in hotels is, presumably, strongly related to demand for hotel services and to the derived revenue. Analysis of the monthly distributions of these indicators at tourism hotels in Israel during the years 1992-1997 revealed two types of maladjustment. First, the amplitude of the distribution for bed-nights and revenues is much higher than the counterpart distribution for employment. Second, the distributions differ in their measure of skewness. While the employment distribution is negatively skewed towards the autumn months, the distributions of the revenues and more so that of the demand for bed-nights services, are positively skewed towards the spring. Hotel management seems to be more alert to reducing the employment maladjustment during years of stagnation than years of expansion. Several hypotheses are suggested in order to explain the maladjustment. A part of it is probably associated with the allocation of overtime working hours. Another portion seems to be related to the efforts made by hotel management to retain trained workers year round in return for their consent to work for low pay.     

边境城市发展需求管理理论初探与研究——以广西区崇左市为例

对边境城市的关注与建设是关系到国家社会安定团结的重要策略。以崇左市这个边境城市的建设为背景,从马斯洛需求层次理论和科学建设城市观的角度出发,把边境城市的发展提到了对其城市建设的需求管理上,把成功打造边境城市品牌的名片纳入到了边境城市提升经济地位的中心策略里,强调了满足边境城市发展的需求管理理论,可以有效地建立于邻国的友好往来、互惠互利的关系,并给边民们在心理上建立了有效的安定繁荣的心理效应,使得他们能够在此安居乐业,共创美好和平的新生活。     

数字偏好与股票收益异常——来自上海证券交易所的经验证据

本文研究股票代码对股票收益的影响。研究发现,由于数字偏好效应的存在,投资者刻意回避代码以“4”结尾的股票。在较长时间内,尾数是“4”的股票收益低于给定风险水平下的市场必要收益。但这一现象受到股市行情的影响,牛市行情时,投资者回避“4”的行为表现明显,而熊市行情时则会趋向消失。具体表现为：牛市行情下,“4”组合的资产收益小于给定风险水平下的市场必要收益,熊市行情则无此现象。本文从行为金融莹晶当磨时杖一仑蜃由市扬耳夔讲符T觎崧