中国与美国技术差距缩小了吗

首先对中国技术创新水平进行了跨国跨期比较分析,并探寻了中国技术创新水平现状以及与美国的技术差距;其次,构建了理论模型,从长期和短期视角剖析了后发国家的技术追赶机制,进而对中美技术差距的影响因素进行了计量分析。研究表明：①在技术追赶过程中,短期内,后发国家应积极发挥后发优势,根据自身技术水平权衡模仿创新和自主创新,而在长期,随着技术差距逐渐收敛于稳定值,后发国家应加强自主创新;②相对于美国,尽管中国技术水平仍较滞后,但中美技术差距呈缩小态势;③当前,自主创新、FDI的溢出吸收以及劳动力资本和生产性投资有助于缩小中美技术差距,但高科技产品进口却导致了技术差距的扩大;④随着“刘易斯拐点”的到来和中国工业化进程的深入,劳动力、资本等传统要素对缩小中美技术差距的作用正在逐渐减弱。     

Government in standardization in the catching-up context: Case of China's mobile system

This paper categorizes the multiple-faced roles of the government in technology standardization in the catching-up contexts. It presents a case that China has developed a third generation (3G) of mobile system, TD-SCDMA, and deployed it in the Chinese market. The authors attribute the success of this national standardization initiative to that the government is able to balance the interests of different stakeholders of mobile technology and market, and enroll them into the process of TD-SCDMA development and industrialization. The TD-SCDMA case demonstrates that the government in the standardization process can act as a project founder, risk undertaker, interest moderator, collaboration facilitator, and process monitor. Practical implications for developing countries in pursuing their indigenous innovation strategy are given.     

Development as leapfrogging,not convergence,not catch-up: towards schumpeterian theories of finance and development

Our aim is to demark a pathway towards Schumpeterian theories of finance and development. To do this, we offer four basic propositions for discussion. First, we suggest that ‘convergence’ and ‘catch-up’ are, from a Schumpeterian perspective, theoretically inadequate concepts as they frame development narratives similarly to the Rostovian idea of a linear path towards some sort of ‘equilibrium imposed on history’. Leapfrogging by means of innovation and finance is put forward as a better approach to analyzing development trajectories. Second, we contend that rather than the often-assumed convergence among nations, history shows that ‘divergence’ is a more common result of development trajectories; this is especially visible in the last half a century. Third, we outline the key features of this Schumpeterian framework, centered on the concept of leapfrogging through innovation and finance. We conclude by highlighting the essential roles of finance and financial governance within this alternative framework for understanding successful development trajectories, and posit that this construct may be labeled a Schumpeterian entrepreneurial state.     

“赶超型”产业政策与市场绩效:基于东亚地区国际竞争力的比较视角

借鉴西方产业组织SCP分析范式,以国际竞争力为导向,在比较日本、韩国及我国台湾地区“赶超型”产业政策、市场结构、市场行为、市场绩效的基础上,分析产业政策的传导机理。从同质性角度,提出了产业政策的“倒U”假说;从异质性角度,比较了均衡与非均衡的产业政策特点。就市场结构而言,日本产业呈现规模与竞争兼容,韩国产业是规模有余、竞争不足,而台湾地区产业则是规模不足、竞争有余。就市场行为而言,日本企业表现为“创新型”,韩国企业是“扩张型”,台湾地区企业是“标准型”。基于均衡的产业政策,日本“赶超型”产业政策的传导较好地抑制了产业政策的副作用,表现出更强的国际竞争力。     

Income convergence within the MENA countries: A panel unit root approach

This article aims at testing the convergence hypothesis in MENA region using new tests of a unit root in panel data. Evans and Karras [Evans P., & Karras G. (1996). Convergence revisited. Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, 249–265] and Bernard and Jones [Bernard A., & Jones C. I. (1996). Productivity across industries and countries: Time series theory and evidence. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 135–146] recommend this technique to evaluate the income convergence hypothesis. According to them it avoids econometric problems of the cross-countries growth regressions testing convergence and sample bias of the multivariate cointegration techniques. We test for both absolute and the conditional convergence with panel unit root tests using the Summers and Heston's data 5.6 and 6.1 on the periods of 1960 to 1990 and from 1960 to 2000. The absolute convergence hypothesis use panel unit roots test with no fixed individual effects. The catching-up hypothesis is not rejected for most groups of countries of the region during both periods. If we allow a break in the unit root tests, the hypothesis is not rejected for more groups. The conditional convergence requires panel unit root tests with fixed individual effects. Again, during the whole periods, the conditional convergence is not rejected for the major part of the remaining groups of MENA countries.     

技术能力、路径依赖与技术赶超研究

分析了技术领先地区（国）和技术落后地区（国）之间的技术溢出效应,基于Verspagen模型,建立了基于技术能力和路径依赖的技术赶超模型。研究表明,后发地区（国）实现技术差距缩小和技术赶超的关键不仅在于自身技术能力的提高,还要打破路径依赖的锁定效应;后发地区（国）不可忽视经济主体“有意识的行为”,实现从路径依赖到路径创新的演化。因此,后发地区（国）一方面要培育自身技术能力,另一方面要提高经济主体的创新意识和创新能力,尽快摆脱技术对路径依赖的负面影响,实现技术赶超。     

Technological convergence and trade patterns

Textbook trade theory would suggest that emerging and developing countries specialize in lower-tech industries. In this paper the authors take a dynamic view on development and trade integration and distinguish three types of catching-up processes (the continuous-convergence approach, the climbing-up-the-ladder approach and the jumping-up approach). Using data for 25 countries and 32 industries the authors empirically analyze the different patterns of catching up over the period from 1981 to 1997. Further, they discuss linkages between technological convergence, dynamics of comparative advantage and trade patterns. JEL no. F14, L6, O10, O14, O30, O41.     

A re-examination of the technological catching-up hypothesis across OECD industries

This study re-examines the catching-up hypothesis at the industry level across the main OECD countries, using panel data econometric models involving technological gap indicators calculated with a nonparametric distance function suggested by Färe et al. [Färe, R.S., Grosskopf, M.N., Norris, M., Xhang, Z., 1994. Productivity growth, technical progress, and efficiency change in industrialized countries. American Economic Review 84, 66–83]. The results show that there is statistical evidence of a catching-up process at the industry level. Moreover, both tradables and nontradables sectors exhibit catching-up effects and technology adoption from abroad. This result complements the findings by Bernard and Jones [Bernard, A.B., Jones, C.I., 1996a. Comparing apples to oranges: productivity convergence and measurement across industries and countries. American Economic Review 86(5), 1216–1238., Bernard, A.B., Jones, C.I., 1996b. Productivity across industries and countries: Time series theory and evidence. Review Of Economics and Statistics 78, 135–146], Gouyette and Perelman [Gouyette, C., Perelman, S., 1997. Productivity convergence in OECD services industries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 8, 279–295] and Hansson and Henrekson [Hansson, P., Henrekson, M., 1997. Catching up, social capability, government size and economic growth, in V. Bergström, eds, Government and Growth, Oxford: Clarendon Press, 61–126] that there is no (or even a slow) catching-up effect in the manufacturing sector. Moreover, social capability indicators evaluated for each country show that “Non-European” and “Central European” tradables sectors have a rather similar degree of inefficiency while “North European” countries are less efficient for both tradables and non-tradables. Lastly, both the cross country and the cross sectors dispersions of inefficiency levels are smaller for tradables sectors than for non-tradables.     

On the hump-shaped output effect of monetary policy in an open economy

Results of empirical research have revealed a characteristic hump-shaped effect of a monetary policy shock on output: The effect of the shock builds to a peak after several months and then gradually dies out. We analyze, in the context of a ‘new open economy macroeconomics’ model, factors that imply a hump-shaped response of output to a monetary policy shock. We find that a hump-shaped effect of a monetary policy shock on output is likely to result if the model features a “catching-up with the Joneses” effect, pricing-to-market behavior of firms, and imperfect international financial market integration. We thank two anonymous referees for very helpful comments. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Accumulation, innovation and catching-up: an extended cumulative growth model

This paper presents an extended model of cumulative growth inwhich the effects of innovation and catching-up are considered.Innovation adds another source of cumulative growth to thatof traditional models and allows a consideration of the importanceof non-price determinants of international competitiveness.Catching-up is the major force leading to convergence in productivityowing to the effect of the diffusion of technology. The modelallows one to analyse whether cumulative forces may lead tostable growth and whether this solution generates convergencein productivity levels. The structural model is tested for aset of OECD countries over the period 1965–94.