Measuring the road safety performance of Iranian provinces: a double-frontier DEA model and evidential reasoning approach

Abstract

Road traffic accidents are critical public issue in developing countries, and they annually waste a significant amount of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In order to urgently consider how this problem is related to the current policies, a proper safety evaluation of regional programmes in crash reduction is fundamental to the governments. The current research aims to employ a double-frontier Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model to assess the productivity of Iranian regional safety programmes in reducing the number of road fatalities. The safety efficiencies of Iranian provinces are simultaneously estimated using the double frontier DEA to reflect both the optimistic and pessimistic points of view. Then, the Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach is applied to aggregate the obtained efficiency values. These provinces are ranked based on the data panel for 2014–2016. Finally, a double-frontier Malmquist productivity index (MPI) is used to comprehensively measure the safety performance of Iranian roads over a period of time.     

An assessment of Charter airline benefits for Port Elizabeth and the Eastern Cape

Tourism is becoming a vital component for economic development in South Africa. The income generated by the tourism industry is about 6% of the GDP, which is significant but still falls short of the goal set by the White Paper on Tourism in 2000. In the light of South Africa hosting the 2010 Football World Cup, it is important to identify ways of sustainable tourism development that would continue to increase the benefits to the economy long after the event＇s over. The main objective of the research was to explore an idea for increasing the level of tourist income generated in the Port Elizabeth （Eastern Cape） area. The idea was researched by means of conducting a cost-benefit analysis of two tourist related projects. These projects would introduce Charter airline services between Europe and Port Elizabeth. A second objective was to identify constraints on the project or market failures which would prevent their implementation. The economic theory behind the operation of an airline showed that lease costs and aeroplane operating costs are the two most important factors determine Charter airline＇s profitability. In order to offset these costs, airlines must achieve high passenger load factors. Charter airlines have the advantage over scheduled airlines, in that they will only fly if a minimum level of people has pre-booked seats. Two aeroplanes were chosen for comparison purpose： an Airbus A 340-300 and a Boeing 767-300ER. The private benefits calculated were based on load factors between 80 and 95 percent for ticket prices of USD 667 and USD 773. In addition, to private costs and benefits, social benefits were also estimated in the form of additional secondary revenue generated. With the introduction of net social benefits, both projects become profitable. A 50 percent substitution of revenue generated by the Charter tourists reduces the profits for the both projects drastically. A project based on a Boeing 767-300ER is the most efficient project as it has the highest NPV and BCR values. A reduction in the lease cost of the Airbus 340-300 could make projects based on it more competitive. A few constraints on the establishment of a Charter airline operator based in Port Elizabeth are： the lack of adequate runway for the landing of the long-haul carriers and the need of a larger liberalisation of the aviation policy by eliminating protectionism. The cost benefit analysis undertaken in this research does not take into account social costs and benefits to the economy of establishing a Charter airline based in Port Elizabeth, such as an employment, infrastructure development and poverty alleviation. Nevertheless the analysis does suggest that there are strong private and social benefits warranting the establishment of an airline business between Europe and Port Elizabeth. The economic benefits of the tourism industry and its link to airline travel are outlined in section 3. It is shown that the growth of the airline industry is a major component and contributor to tourism growth.     

收入分配的极化测度理论研究述评

随着收入分配问题研究的深入,极化(polarization)的重要性也引起了更多的重视。本文从极化的概念入手,详细梳理了近二十年来学术界关于极化测度理论的两大类研究成果,并指出了这两类极化测度指标之间的区别、联系以及在实际运用过程中选取指标所要考虑的因素,最后阐述了极化理论研究尚存的不足以及未来的研究方向。     

电流变效应的机理进展

电流变液体是一种由固体小颗粒和绝缘液体组成的智能材料,在电场作用下黏度和软硬度连续可调.在移走电场后,流变性能具有可逆转性,其响应速度极快,可达毫秒级.电流变材料潜在的巨大经济和社会效益使其从20世纪40年代至今一直是一个研究热点.随着材料的研究,相继提出了双电层理论和“水桥”机理、极化模型、导电模型以及解释巨ER效应...     

企业风险传导条件、类型及路径研究

企业风险具有传导性。与之前学者们对企业风险管理的研究相比,认为企业风险传导是风险管理研究的新课题,也是风险管理研究体系的重要组成部分。剖析了企业风险传导的条件,对企业风险传导进行分类,探讨性提出企业风险传导依赖的路径。