Crossing spatial analyses and livestock economics to understand deforestation processes in the Brazilian Amazon: the case of São Félix do Xingú in South Pará

The Amazon is the largest tropical forest area on Earth, and has been undergoing rapid deforestation for the last four decades. In the Brazilian Amazon, large‐scale pasture for cattle ranching and soybean production are the main land uses, leading to a yearly deforestation rate of 0.5%. These conversions are mostly located in frontier areas distributed along the so‐called “arc of deforestation”. Within this large zone, various land use change processes are interacting through several modes of land valuation and organisation. From several case studies in the State of Pará (Brazil), the current project aims at analysing how landscape dynamics are related to infrastructure development, ecological conditions, zoning policies and to the evolution and the organisation of the production, consumption and marketing chains of livestock products. This paper presents the results for one test site, the region of São Félix do Xingú, South of Pará This region is the focus of land speculation, cattle expansion, and deforestation. Road construction, investments in electrical energy, financial credit for cattle, and the land reform policies have all fuelled this process. All these factors make this region one of the most dynamic agricultural frontiers in the Brazilian Amazon. The main objective of the paper is to improve our understanding of deforestation processes by crossing spatial analyses and 1ivestock economics.studies, and to characterise the role and impact of various natural and anthropic factors in the location and development of the main types of farmers, and their policy implications.     

Diversification and sophistication of livestock products: The case of African countries

This study assesses the level of sophistication of livestock products in Africa by evaluating technology intensity and economic complexity of each product. Using trade data from 1995 to 2012, livestock commodity exports are classified based on technology intensity. Employing a method of reflection in computing the economic complexity of export products, we find that one fifth of African livestock commodity exports are manufactured with low technology while the rest is composed of raw materials. The results also show that the ten most complex livestock commodities represent about a third of African livestock total exports while the world level is almost double this figure. Yet African countries spend a huge share of their wealth on importing complex products. The results imply that by exporting non-complex products Africa loses nearly a third of the total value of its livestock exports. To boost the value of livestock products, African countries should exploit their untapped potential while securing the domestic market to achieve import substitution. This can be done by integrating with global value chains or developing niche markets at the regional or international markets and improving productive capabilities.     

Convergence between satellite information and farmers’ perception of drought in rangelands of North-West Patagonia,Argentina

Drought is a complex natural hazard with social and environmental implications. Satellite information is increasingly used to support decision-makers in preventing or coping with the negative impacts of drought. The integration of local and scientific knowledge to support drought monitoring is still far from being the main procedure in the development of drought monitoring and early warning systems. This study aimed at assessing the degree of convergence between satellite information on the effect of droughts on rangeland vegetation, from time series analysis, and farmers’ perception of drought in North-West Patagonia, Argentina. We characterised the scientific evidence of drought in terms of duration, spatial distribution, most severe years and recovery for the period 2000–2018 by identifying inter-annual NDVI changes. Farmers’ perceptions and experiences of drought were studied with open-ending interviews, with respect to occurrence, duration and recovery for that period. Satellite information matched farmers’ perception of drought at a regional scale, emphasising the value of remote sensing tools in supporting regional policy decision-making. However, farmers’ perceptions and recall of past drought impacts were more diverse than satellite information at a local level, highlighting the need for knowledge integration at finer scales.     

牲畜保险、需求与参与率研究——基于浙江省生猪养殖户微观数据的实证研究

牲畜保险是农业保险的重要组成部分,生猪保险作为大宗农产品的风险保障近年来受到政府高度重视。农业保险参与率问题是农业保险的基本问题,生猪保险参与率的研究相对较少。本文利用一手资料对生猪保险的需求进行研究,使用Logistic模型,采用农户疫苗花费等代理变量对生猪保险参与率问题进行了实证研究,并对农户退保行为进行分析。研究发现:影响农户生猪保险参与率的因素主要有农户的风险规避程度、对生猪保险认知程度、养猪规模等变量。降低生猪保险理赔环节和交易成本,提高农户对农业保险的认识可以在一定程度上提高生猪保险参与率。     

Livestock intensification as a climate policy: Lessons from the Brazilian case

Brazil is trying to identify ways to ally economic growth with climate change mitigation. Productivity gains in livestock have been pointed out as a promising alternative to achieve that goal. Thus, this paper analyses the economic impacts of a policy of productivity gains in the Brazilian livestock. Besides, we evaluate if the policy may conciliate agricultural growth and deforestation control, bearing in mind the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use changes. The analysis was carried out through a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, tailored to represent land-use changes, GHG emissions and removals. Besides, it made progress modeling the heterogeneity of climate, soils, and emissions in inter-regional models with many regions. The results show that productivity gains can effectively “save” land and thus avoid deforestation, especially in the Amazon and Cerrado (savannah) biomes. The policy also may boost the economic growth, spreading it to other regions of Brazil, like Centre-West and North, and increasing income and consumption in those places. However, as a climate policy, focused on the reduction of GHG emissions, the results may be counterproductive. The net amount issued may increase, as a result of the positive stimulus of the policy on the economy, and GHG emissions are directly related to the economic growth.     

我国畜产品出口中的动物福利壁垒探析

随着国际贸易格局的变动和人类生态意识的增强,在畜产品的国际贸易领域,逐渐形成了新的壁垒——动物福利壁垒。我国在动物福利方面尚处于萌芽阶段,发达国家的动物福利壁垒给我国的畜产品出口带来巨大影响,我国应充分发挥政府、行业协会、企业、消费者四个层次的作用,提高我国畜产品应对动物福利壁垒的能力,改善我国畜产品出口贸易状况。     

我国畜产品贸易动物福利壁垒的博弈分析

我国在“入世”以前,关税、数量限制是影响畜产品出口的主要壁垒。而近年来,越来越多的发达国家开始关注畜产品在养殖、生产和加工过程中的状况,并以动物福利为借口限制我国畜产品的出口。我国作为世界畜产品的出口大国,在动物福利方面还是空白,如果不采取应对措施,我国的畜产品出口将会受到严重影响。本文介绍了动物福利的基本情况,利用博弈论分析了畜产品贸易中各利益主体的价值取向,并提出了应对措施。     

我国畜产品贸易动物福利壁垒的博弈分析

我国在“入世”以前，关税、数量限制是影响畜产品出口的主要壁垒。而近年来，越来越多的发达国家开始关注畜产品在养殖、生产和加工过程中的状况，并以动物福利为借口限制我国畜产品的出口。我国作为世界畜产品的出口大国，在动物福利方面还是空白，如果不采取应对措施，我国的畜产品出口将会受到严重影响。本文介绍了动物福利的基本情况，利用博弈论分析了畜产品贸易中各利益主体的价值取向,并提出了应对措施。     

Integrating livestock feeds and production systems into agricultural multi-market models: The example of IMPACT

The various ways in which livestock production systems can be incorporated into economic, partial-equilibrium, multi-market models are presented, and the challenges outlined. A particular focus and illustrative case is livestock feed. Foremost among the challenges is the reconciliation of scientific understanding of livestock feed requirements and production characteristics with the available national data. Another challenge is in estimating herd structures. An economic, multi-market modeling approach is presented which has been widely used in policy analysis and advocacy, and an account is given of the necessary recent enhancements for addressing livestock.