Pricing mortgage insurance contracts under housing price cycles with jump risk: evidence from the U.K. housing market

Previous studies have investigated the determinants of housing price cycles in the housing market; however, we observed the phenomenon of housing price jumps in the 2007 subprime crisis. This paper presents a discussion on the housing price cycle and abnormal price jumps to describe the behavior of housing prices in the United Kingdom. The empirical results show that the impact factors of housing cycles are market risk and the switching factor. Furthermore, the impact factors of jump risks include the bursting of the housing bubble and financial crises. Therefore, in this paper, we employ the Markov switching model with jump risks to value the MI contracts and analyze the influences of housing price cycles, jump risks, risks of market interest rate, and the prepayment risks on MI premiums. The results of sensitivity analysis show that more volatile housing price index returns, as well as longer periods of higher volatility in housing prices, raise MI premiums. Moreover, the MI premium is positively related to the absolute value of the average jump amplitude and the shock frequency of abnormal events. There is the tradeoff between the market interest rate and the prepayment risk. The influences of market interest rate are different on MI premium with/without prepayment risks.     

A “Pure” long-term interest rate and the demand for money

This article presents the appropriate rate by which to discount a constant, certain, infinite stream of future payments: that is, the yield on a noncallable perpetuity or consol. The American consol series is a daily risk-free “pure” long term interest rate which is undistorted by tax effects, call premiums, and varying duration and reinvestment assumptions. If Hamburger had used the American consol series instead of the U.S. Government Long Term Bond Rate in his money demand function, he would have found more of the “missing money.” His average error (actual minus predicted money demand) as a percentage of actual money demand would have been reduced from 1.43% to 0.93% a 35% error reduction.     

Economic burden associated with inadequate antidepressant medication management among patients with depression and known cardiovascular diseases: insights from a United States–based retrospective claims database analysis

Abstract

Aims: The current study examined the association between insufficient major depressive disorder (MDD) care and healthcare resource use (HCRU) and costs among patients with prior myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke.

Methods: This was a retrospective study conducted using the MarketScan Claims Database (2010–2015). The date of the first MI/stroke diagnosis was defined as the cardiovascular disease (CVD) index date and the first date of a subsequent MDD diagnosis was the index MDD date. Adequacy of MDD care was assessed during the 90 days following the index MDD date (profiling period) using 2 measures: dosage adequacy (average fluoxetine equivalent dose of ≥20?mg/day for nonelderly and ≥10?mg/day for elderly patients) and duration adequacy (measured as the proportion of days covered of 80% or higher for all MDD drugs). Study outcomes included all-cause and CVD-related HCRU and costs which were determined from the end of the profiling period until the end of study follow-up. Propensity-score adjusted generalized linear models (GLMs) were used to compare patients receiving adequate versus inadequate MDD care in terms of study outcomes.

Results: Of 1,568 CVD patients who were treated for MDD, 937 (59.8%) were categorized as receiving inadequate MDD care. Results from the GLMs suggested that patients receiving inadequate MDD care had 14% more all-cause hospitalizations, 4% more all-cause outpatient visits, 17% more CVD-related outpatient visits, 13% more CVD-related emergency room (ER) visits, higher per patient per year CVD-related hospitalization costs ($21,485 vs. $17,756), higher all-cause outpatient costs ($2,820 vs. $2,055), and higher CVD-related outpatient costs ($520 vs. $434) compared to patients receiving adequate MDD care.

Limitations: Clinical information such as depression severity and frailty, which are potential predictors of adverse CVD outcomes, could not be ascertained using administrative claims data.

Conclusions: Among post-MI and post-stroke patients, inadequate MDD care was associated with a significantly higher economic burden.     

Inverted breakeven analysis for profitable marketing decisions

This article develops a modified model of breakeven analysis which provides a viable conceptual tool to the industrial marketing management to determine in actual industrial marketing situations whether a given product should be produced and marketed by the supplier firm.     

Discovering an accountant's tax accrual workpapers: Should auditors join the priveleged few?

This article explores the legal controversy over the limits of the Internal Revenue Service's (IRS) power to summons documents in an investigation of corporate income tax liability. The controversy focuses upon IRS access to an independent auditor's tax accrual workpapers. Required by federal securities laws, these workpapers record the accountant's predictions of the likelihood of successful IRS challenges to aggressive corporate tax positions. Routine IRS access to the tax accrual workpapers would stifle management's candid disclosure of questionable tax positions to the auditors. This article defines the limits of an auditor's work-product privilege premised on the social need for full disclosure of a company's contingent tax liabilities to assure the setting aside of adequate reserves to cover those contingencies. While the privilege should serve to protect those investing in American businesses, its primary purpose is to maintain a public trust in the integrity of certified financial statements.     

统计学在英语词语搭配研究中的应用

阐述与分析了弗斯等专家的词语搭配概念，认为狭义和广义的英语词语搭配界定都需要通过定量分析，即统计学的计量方法来确定搭配存在与否。并通过统计测量的方法，举例说明了搭配力的Z分值、T分值以及表示搭配强度的MI值，以此来说明统计学的方法在英语词语搭配中的广泛应用。     

多元智能理论视野下的英语合作学习模式探究

霍华德.加德纳教授的多元智能理论(MI理论)对"智能"进行了全新的诠释,他认为每个人身上都有8种独立的智能,这些智能之间独特的组合方式构成了人与人之间的差异。目前,人们越来越关注MI理论对教育的促进作用,合作学习是MI理论原则应用于教育领域的一种方式,英语听说课的研究实验表明:以MI理论为指导的合作学习模式有利于学生英语听、说能力的提高,学生之间的个体差异性缩小,学生的学习兴趣和自信心增强。     

Synthesis of qualitative and quantitative approaches to long-range forecasting

Integration of qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches is usually attempted and appraised in the context of improving forecast accuracy. This paper examines the feasibility and potential merits of integrating these two approaches to produce a useful range, rather than to improve the accuracy, of long-range forecasting. Two approaches of synthesis, one beginning with qualitative future scenarios and the other beginning with quantitative econometric models, are described, illustrated, and compared.     

多元智能理论在大学英语教学中的实践应用及其启示

20世纪90年代,霍华德.加德纳教授(Howard Gardner)的多元智能理论(简称MI理论)被引入中国,并引起研究热潮。通过对以语言智能、数理逻辑智能、交际智能以及自我意识智能为主的教学方式进行实验研究,能够验证MI理论的切实可行性,并为促进大学英语教学以及学生发展提供有效参考。