Diversification strategy with random yield suppliers for a mean–variance risk-sensitive manufacturer

We consider the diversification strategy for a mean–variance risk-sensitive manufacturer with unreliable suppliers. We first analyze the linear model and find that the suppliers are selected according to the descending order of their contributed marginal expected profit, and increasing the manufacturer’s risk-averseness leads to a more even allocation of demand across the suppliers. Then, we study the general newsvendor model. By approximating the leftover inventory with a normal distribution, we establish the general properties of the active supplier set and show that the supplier selection rule is similar to that under the risk-neutral setting when the demand uncertainty is large. Moreover, we conjecture that the selection rule also applies when the demand uncertainty is low, which we verify with an extensive numerical study. Our paper makes two contributions: First, we establish the properties of the optimal diversification strategy and develop corresponding insights into the trade off between cost and reliability under the mean–variance framework. Second, we perform comparative statics on the optimal solution, with a particular emphasis on investigating how changes in the supplier’s cost or reliability affect the risk-averse manufacturer’s ordering decisions and customer service level.     

Dual sourcing of a newsvendor with exponential utility of profit

Dual sourcing strategies supplement inflexible, low-cost country sourcing with quick response manufacturing. Due to short product life cycles, combined with uncertain demand, dual sourcing strategies are very common in several industries, in particular in the sporting goods or fashion industries.Even though scholars have given some attention to the analysis of dual sourcing strategies, the importance of the decision-maker’s risk preferences has not been covered yet.In this paper we analyse dual sourcing strategies using an extended single-product newsvendor model with two order points. Different risk preferences will be modelled using an exponential utility function. Within realistic parameter ranges, the optimal order quantities can only be numerically computed. The findings of this paper show that dual sourcing strategies are always preferable to an exclusive offshore approach, as long as the onshore ordering costs are smaller than the selling price of the considered product. The more risk-averse the decision-maker, the smaller the offshore order quantity will be.     

A serial supply chain of newsvendor problem with safety stocks under complete and partial information sharing

We consider a supply chain where multiple members are serially connected. The decision is to determine the ordering quantity of a member to the next upstream member in the supply chain. The basic cost model is similar to the newsvendor problem with additional consideration to safety stock. This paper presents optimal approaches for coordination of the supply chain under both complete and partial information sharing in order to maximize the total expected benefit. For complete information sharing we develop an optimal coordination algorithm. For partial information sharing, we propose an optimal coordination algorithm based on the Alternating Direction Method and the Diagonal Quadratic Approximation Method. A numerical example is discussed to show the optimal convergence of ordering quantities and discuss the properties of the proposed algorithms.     

Online marketing: When to offer a refund for advanced sales

Advance selling is a marketing strategy commonly used by online retailers to increase sales by exploiting consumer valuation uncertainty. Recently, some online retailers have started to allow refunds on products sold in advance. On the one hand this reduces the net advance sales, but on the other hand it allows a higher advance sales price. This research is the first to explore the overall effect of allowing a refund on profits from advance sales, identifying conditions where advance selling with or without refunds (or no advance selling at all) is best. We analytically compare the profits of three advance selling strategies: none, without refund, and with refund. We show that selling in advance and allowing a refund is optimal for products with a relatively small profit margin and small strategic market size, and that the added profit can be considerable. Our results guide managers in selecting the right advance selling strategy. To facilitate this, we graphically display, based on the two dimensions of regular profit margin and strategic market size, under what conditions the different strategies are optimal.     

A distribution-free newsvendor model with balking and lost sales penalty

In this paper, we extend the classical single period newsvendor model in an environment of customer balking, which occurs when customers are reluctant to buy a product if its available inventory falls below a threshold level. Since failure to make a sale usually results in a cost penalty, in addition to the opportunity cost of lost sales, we incorporate such costs in our model. Furthermore, we extend our model to include fixed ordering costs. Our analysis is based on the assumption that only the mean and the variance of the distribution of demand are known, without assuming any specific distributional form. We illustrate the concepts developed here through simple numerical examples and demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by solving a set of 1000 randomly generated test problems.     

Joint pricing and procurement of fashion products in the existence of clearance markets

This paper focuses on the joint pricing and procurement of fashion products in the existence of clearance markets. It is assumed that the expected regular season demand is a linear decreasing function of the price and the end of period excess inventory is sold at a known discounted price in a clearance market where the demand is a random variable that follows a general distribution. It is shown that the expected profit function is unimodal and the optimal procurement quantity and price can be found from the first order conditions. Existence of a clearance market increases the profit, price, and the procurement quantity. In order to prove this, the optimal procurement and pricing policy of a price-setting retailer who does not have a clearance market is provided. As opposed to the literature, it is shown that the expected profit function of this problem is unimodal as well. A numerical study demonstrating the magnitude of the increase in profit, procurement quantity, and price is reported.     

Mean-downside-risk and mean-variance newsvendor models: Implications for sustainable fashion retailing

Newsvendor models have been well-established for studying supply chain management problems with fashionable products. In this paper, we explore the mean-downside-risk (MDR) and mean-variance (MV) newsvendor models under both the exogenous and endogenous retail price decision cases. We first construct analytical models with the MDR and MV objectives. We then show that the analytical solution schemes for both the MDR and MV problems are the same. With the measures for sustainability such as the expected quantity of goods leftover, the expected sales to expected goods leftover ratio, the rate of return on investment, and the probability of achieving a pre-determined profit target, we proceed to compare the levels of sustainability by the fashion retailers which employ the mean-risk and the risk neutral models. Insights are generated.     

批发价合同实验研究

供应链合同通常提供一些激励以调整供应链的成员关系来协调供应链,使分散决策的供应链的整体利润与一个集中的系统下的利润尽量接近。本文在模拟实验中,将合同关系的价格、采购量条款作为决策变量进行了着重研究。通过对供应商——零售商博弈模拟实验得出的450个数据进行的批发价、订购量和利润三方面的分析和处理,把实验结果和理论预测进行了对比,分析了实验结果内在原因,并提出了进一步研究方向。     

随机顾客选择需求模型及其在库存管理中的应用

分析一种随机需求模型，它的不确定性由两个不确定因素同时引起；到达市场的顾客的数量的不确定性和每个顾客选择的数量的不确定性。根据顾客选择的数量服从贝努里分布及顾客数量服从离散型分布的情况下建立了随机顾客选择需求模型，并应用于库存管理决策Newsvendor模型中。     

A two-period newsvendor model for prepositioning with a post-disaster replenishment using Bayesian demand update

Humanitarian aid agencies usually resort to inventory prepositioning to mitigate the impact of disasters by sending emergency supplies to the affected area as quickly as possible. However, a lack of replenishment opportunity after a disaster can greatly hamper the effectiveness of the relief operation due to uncertainty in demand. In this paper, a prepositioning problem is formulated as a two-period newsvendor model where the response phase is divided into two periods. The model acknowledges the demand to be uncertain even after the disaster and utilises the Bayesian approach to revise the demand of the second period. Based on the revised demand, an order is placed at the beginning of the second period to be replenished instantaneously. A two-stage solution methodology is proposed to find the prepositioning quantity and post-disaster replenishment quantity, which minimise the total expected costs of relief operations. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the solution methodology, and sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the effect of model parameters. The results highlight the indifferent characteristics shown by the replenishment quantity with the variation in model parameters.