声誉机制与棘轮效应对预算松弛影响的研究

本文将单一期间代理模型扩展到多期间代理模型来研究委托一代理关系，从预算棘轮效应和经理人声誉相结合的角度来揭示预算松弛产生的原因，并得出两者的联合作用将显著增加预算松弛产生的可能性，这使我们对影响预算松弛的因素有了进一步的认识，丰富了预算管理理论。     

联合确定基数合约:对魏茨曼模型的一个改进

本文针对国内外委托代理理论主要局限于理论分析层面而实用性不强的特点,在概要评论有关利润基数确定的相关文献的基础上,通过对美国一家公司委托代理实际案例的研究,提出了旨在能够解决实际委托代理关系的"联合确定基数法"。文章分析了联合确定基数法与棘轮效应模型的区别和联系,以数学方法论证了联合确定基数法的若干命题,描述了公司利润基数确定的利益诱导机制,并对比分析了联合确定基数法与西方教科书中的"激励设计模型"。本文试图以联合确定基数法为核心内容的一次性动态模型,代替蕴含着讨价还价过程的多次性动态模型。     

Dynamic yardstick mechanisms

This paper shows that the inability of principals to commit to long-term contracts is irrelevant when dealing with several agents whose private information is correlated. This sharply contrasts with the dynamics of contracting without such correlation. The paper also explores what limitations on yardstick mechanisms can justify the use of long-term contracts. We found that the inability of a principal to commit not to renegotiate long-term contracts is without consequence even if there is a bound on transfers that an agent can be asked to pay. In contrast, short-term contracting fails to implement the commitment solution with constraints on transfers. Second, absent current yardstick, the possibility of using correlated mechanisms in the future allows the principal to implement the first-best with a renegotiation-proof long-term contract whereas this cannot be achieved with short-term contracting.     

Do liquidity induced changes in aggregate dividends signal aggregate future earnings growth?

Extant empirical literature does not provide abundant evidence for the information content hypothesis regarding firm-level dividend signaling. Although this is consistent with the argument against an optimal firm-level dividend policy, this does not imply an absence of an optimal aggregate dividend level. Aggregate dividends and earnings may exhibit stronger associations if aggregation filters out firm-specific earnings information and indicates macroeconomic trends. Using macroeconomic data, we show that aggregate payout ratios signal aggregate future earnings growth for horizons up to 4 years, and that excess aggregate liquidity plays an important role in this relationship.

The simple analytics of information and experimentation in dynamic agency

Summary. The dynamics of a stochastic, two–period principal–agent relationship is studied. The agent's type remains the same over time. Contracts are short term. The principal designs the second contract, taking the information available about the agent after the first period into account. Compared to deterministic environments significant changes emerge: First, fully separating contracts are optimal. Second, the principal has two opposing incentives when designing contracts: the principal ‘experiments,’ making signals more informative; yet dampens signals, thereby reducing up–front payments. As a result, ‘good’ agents' targets are ratcheted over time. Received: November 28, 2000; revised version: December 1, 2000     

预算结余索取权安排、棘轮效应和预算松驰关系研究

预算结余和棘轮效应涉及的均是本期对下期的影响。本文研究这两种制度安排对预算编制松驰和预算执行松驰的影响。采用实验方法收集数据,统计分析发现：（1）在各种预算索取权安排下,预算责任人都有制造预算编制松驰的激励;当棘轮效应不存在时,各种制度安排下的预算编制松驰程度无显著差异;当棘轮效应存在时,不同预算结余制度安排下,预算编制松驰程度不同,留用利益比例与预算编制松驰负相关;（2）当棘轮效应不存在时,如果预算结余留用比例足够高,预算责任人可能没有制造预算执行松驰的激励;当棘轮效应存在时,在各种预算索取权安排下,预算责任人都有制造预算编制松驰的激励;无论棘轮效应是否存在,在不同的预算结余索取权安排下,预算执行松驰程度不同,留用比例与预算执行松驰负相关。（3）棘轮效应对预算编制松驰有抑制作用,对预算执行松驰有促进作用。     

后TRIPS时代国际知识产权保护新趋势——以《反假冒贸易协定》为考察中心

在假冒与盗版日益严重的背景下,有效的知识产权保护对于全球经济的持续增长极其重要。《反假冒贸易协定》代表了发达国家将知识产权国际保护推向更高标准的趋势。虽然不透明的谈判和“富国俱乐部”模式导致《反假冒贸易协定》在批准的过程中引发众多争议,但是批准的受阻并不会使《反假冒贸易协定》走向破产。我国需警惕《反假冒贸易协定》引发的棘轮效应,积极应对发达国家发动的知识产权攻势。     

基于消费者行为的品牌延伸机理分析

通过学习理论、棘轮效应理论、风险理论和需求层次理论对品牌延伸的作用机理进行了深入的探讨,从理论层面进一步阐述了品牌延伸实现了消费者对品牌原有产品的信任和忠诚向品牌延伸产品的低成本转移这一近乎公认却又缺乏细致分析的观点,为品牌延伸的相关研究奠定了理论基础。     

基于面板模型的河北省农民消费结构变动分析

运用面板模型分析了河北省农民结构变动情况及其影响因素结果表明:1995—2009年河北省农民消费水平有了很大提升,正由"基本需求层次"向更高的"享受型层次"转型,增收仍是拉动消费的主要手段。今后的农村工作应继续着力于促进农民增收方面,以收入增幅提升消费水平。同时,要继续采用"刺激农村居民消费"的政策,通过政府补贴等措施进一步刺激农民消费,释放农村消费市场潜力来带动河北省经济的全面发展。     

Ground rental rates and ratchet clauses

The present paper investigates the effect of a ratchet clause on the appropriate rental rate for a ground lease, in the circumstance where land value is periodically reassessed. The effect of the ratchet clause depends primarily upon the life of the lease and the volatility in land returns. For a lease with a 20‐year life, and land value reviewed every 5 years, the effect of the ratchet clause is to lower the appropriate rental rate by around one percentage point. Partial ratchet clauses are also examined, and are shown to have an effect equal to approximately 80 per cent that of a full ratchet clause.