Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa*

Two of the main forces driving European emigration in the late nineteenth century were real wage gaps between sending and receiving regions and demographic booms in the low‐wage sending regions. Our new estimates of net migration for the countries of sub‐Saharan Africa show that exactly the same forces driving African across‐border migration are at work today. The results suggest that rapid growth in the cohort of potential young emigrants, population pressure on the resource base, and slow economic growth are likely to intensify the pressure for migration out of Africa and into high‐wage OECD countries over the next two decades.     

Estimating the Impact of Transgenic Bt Cotton on West and Central Africa: A General Equilibrium Approach

West and Central Africa (WCA)’s cotton sector is experiencing rising production costs and lower yields, reversing decades of growth. Declining input use, soil fertility and inefficient chemical pest controls are contributing factors. We evaluate the potential impact of Bt cotton on WCA using a multiregion general equilibrium model and multicountry estimates of Bt-induced productivity. We find that Bt cotton raises growers’ returns, land value and welfare. Released labor from cotton is shifted to food crops hence reducing labor shortage constraints. Overall, results indicate that potential gross benefits from Bt cotton are substantial for WCA cotton sector, and that the economic costs of nonadoption are equally significant.     

Estimating Market Power in the South African Banking Sector

Indicators of market power can be ambiguous because cost economies associated with scale and not market imperfections may influence results. This article illustrates that without direct measures of concentration, estimates of costs, scale economies and profitability can be used to identify market power in banking. Secondly, via this method, econometric estimates provide meaningful evidence of market power in the South African banking sector over the study sample period (1979–1998). A reasonable conclusion is that while industrial structure is important, careful consideration needs to be given to cost economies and profitability when assessing market power. In addition, there is a need to consider appropriate policy to reduce market power in banking in South Africa.     

Does the World Bank have any impact on human development of the poorest countries? Some preliminary evidence from Africa

In an attempt to better understand the impact of the World Bank on human development in poor countries, we use cross-country data on African countries for the 1990–2002 period to examine this relationship. The coefficient estimates of our parsimonious fixed-effects models indicate that while loans and grants of the Bank have had a positive impact on some relatively short-term indicators of health and education in an average African country, there is little evidence to suggest that such loans and grants have helped these countries to consolidate on the short-term gains.     

Female participation in African labor markets: The role of information and communication technologies

This article investigates the effects of information and communication technologies (ICT) on female labor force participation in a sample of 48 African countries. We specify and estimate linear regression and dynamic panel data models with fixed effects (FE) and system-generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) estimation over the period 2001–2017. The three main results are that ICT use (mobile phone and internet) significantly stimulates female labor force participation in Africa; this effect is enhanced by financial development and female education; the effect of ICT on female employment in Africa is strongest in the industrial sector. These results remain robust to the provision of social, cultural, and institutional variables.     

Review: Food loss and waste in Sub-Saharan Africa

The research, development practitioner, and donor community has begun to focus on food loss and waste – often referred to as post-harvest losses (PHL) – in Sub-Saharan Africa. This article reviews the current state of the literature on PHL mitigation. First, we identify explicitly the varied objectives underlying efforts to reduce PHL levels. Second, we summarize the estimated magnitudes of losses, evaluate the methodologies used to generate those estimates, and explore the dearth of thoughtful assessment around “optimal” PHL levels. Third, we synthesize and critique the impact evaluation literature around on-farm and off-farm interventions expected to deliver PHL reduction. Fourth, we suggest a suite of other approaches to advancing these same objectives, some of which may prove more cost-effective. Finally, we conclude with a summary of main points.     

Are consumers at the base of the pyramid willing to pay for nutritious foods?

Base of the Pyramid (BoP) consumers living in the urban informal settlements of developing countries spend over 60% of their income on food, yet malnutrition and micronutrient deficiency remain widespread among these populations, pointing to the inadequacy of the foods they consume in terms of quality and quantity. In this paper we examine BoP consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for nutritious multi-composite porridge flour (improved flour) in the informal settlements of East Africa. The analysis is based on experimental data collected from 600 households in the informal settlements of Kampala, Uganda and Nairobi, Kenya (300 in each country) in 2016. We use Tobit regression models to analyse determinants of WTP for the improved porridge flour. Results show that both Kenyan and Ugandan BoP consumers are willing to pay a premium for the improved porridge flour. In addition, providing nutrition information about the flour, characteristics of household head, economic status of the household, and presence of young children between six and 59 months in the household, influence WTP for the safe and nutritious porridge flour. The paper concludes by providing recommendations for enhancing nutrition among poor consumers in the informal settlements of developing countries.     

The impact of maize price shocks on household food security: Panel evidence from Tanzania

Using three waves (2008/09, 2010/11, 2012/13) of the Tanzanian National Panel Survey, this study investigates the impact of maize price shocks on household food security. Between 2008/09 and 2012/13, calorie intake stagnated for urban households, yet sharply deteriorated for rural households. The latter was driven by a significant decline in the consumption of the major staple maize which showed strongest price hikes among all major food items. Fixed-effects regressions indicate a clear negative relationship between maize prices and average household energy intake. Almost all population groups were found to be negatively affected by maize price shocks, with rural landless households being the most vulnerable group. In particular, a 50 percent rise in maize prices decreases caloric intake for rural (urban) households on average by 4.4 (5.4) percent, and for rural landless households by 12.6 percent. Results further indicate that subsistence agriculture can act as an effective strategy to insure against food price volatility.     

Net neutrality and market power: The case of South Africa

Net neutrality rules have been implemented in many developed countries, often in response to concerns over network operator market power and potential blocking or throttling of content. However, developing countries typically have significantly lower levels of internet penetration and usage. Market power in respect of internet access looks quite different given that mobile is the predominant means of connection and there are often three or more mobile operators. In South Africa, there is a quasi-monopoly in the paid satellite broadcasting market and broadband providers zero-rating content from third parties (such as Netflix) may bring about more competition. We test the main theories of harm arising in the net neutrality debate, including network operator market power and exclusion among content providers using data on the number of announced prefixes and peers and IP addresses and considering examples of bundling and zero-rating conduct by operators. We find that net neutrality rules are less likely to be required in South Africa and other developing countries and that strict enforcement of such rules could in fact hinder competition in markets for content, telecommunications networks and other related markets.     

A model of West African millet prices in rural markets

In this article we specify a model of millet prices in the three West African countries of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Using data obtained from USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) we present a unique regional millet price forecasting model that takes advantage of the panel nature of our data and accounts for the distance of rural markets from capital cities. Another novel aspect of our analysis is our use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to detect and control for variation in conditions for productivity. We find that including NDVI information significantly improves price forecasts.