Viewpoint: Future of food safety and nutrition - Seeking win-wins,coping with trade-offs

The possible implications of global trends such as climate change and resource scarcity on food security are high on the political agendas. While the food sufficiency aspect of food security takes centre-stage, the future of food safety and nutritional quality of diets often seems to be taken for granted. This paper builds on the results of a foresight study on EU food safety and nutrition towards 2050 to discuss potential future points of tension for food policy. Increasing food production while using fewer resources and reducing food waste while ensuring food safety are just two examples. Innovation at different levels in the food system will be needed to address future challenges. Fast technology uptake and the launch of new food-related products can put pressure on the ability to deliver timely risk assessments, the scope of which might also need to cover other legitimate factors. Future food policies need to be more sensitive to impacts on food safety and nutrition and health aspects. A holistic food systems approach must be taken to identify and discuss in advance possible tensions and trade-offs and to address them upfront in a systematic and transparent manner.     

Governance of ecosystem services trade-offs in peri-urban landscapes

Peri-urban landscapes (PULs) are specific transitional forms of urban landscapes undergoing dynamic land-use changes. PULs’ transformations are driven by close and significant influence of an urban core, cross-administrative boundary character, and diversity of governance actors. PULs have significant potential to provide ES and respond to the urban and peri-urban demand for ES, but they are also particular contexts where significant and different ES trade-offs can occur. Majority of existing forms of governance are not able to deal and address such trade-offs, which thus call for more innovative and effective governance approaches and mechanisms, aimed at achieving ES synergies and reducing ES conflicts.This paper discusses the characteristics of PULs in the context of governance questions related to the management of ES trade-offs in the urban peripheries. The drivers of ES trade-offs are presented and different trade-off relationships between and within the main ES types are analyzed. The paper drafts a way forward from the current state-of-the-art related to governance of peri-urban ES trade-offs by providing recommendations for more effective governance that would address these trade-offs. Due to the very dynamic character of PULs, it is difficult to manage land-use changes and ES trade-offs. Hence, the governance approaches need to be adaptive and integrative at multiple levels, while engaging diverse actors to balance ES trade-offs that have mixed urban and rural character.     

Perceived trade-off between education and sports career: evidence from professional football

To explore the attitudes towards risky career choices of young people in highly competitive environments, we surveyed almost 1000 football players in the youth academies of German professional clubs (Bundesliga), who must generally decide early in their careers whether or not to risk quitting school to focus solely on a professional football career. Based on the survey responses, we empirically analysed which factors influence these youths’ tendencies to choose a high-risk career option over a lower risk one. Our results seem to indicate that such risk taking in competitive environments can be explained by potential benefits expected from this decision, as well as judgments about the likelihood of achieving the desired career. Risk attitudes towards career choices vary by differences in individuals’ estimates of the potential benefits and in particular, in their own assessments of the likelihood of success, which is an important driver of risk acceptance. We also found that opportunity cost considerations influence risk acceptance: the better the low-risk option, the less willing the individual to give it up for a high-risk alternative. In addition, both national origin and level of cultural integration play a role in attitudes towards risky career choices, with reductions in the latter increasing the risk premium of quitting school.     

The drivers of sugarcane expansion in Goiás,Brazil

Between 2003 and 2013, sugarcane area expanded six-fold, from 142,000 ha to 847,000 ha, in Goiás State and the Federal District, Brazil. And while there has been much research on land-use dynamics of sugarcane expansion in established sugarcane growing regions, little is known about the dynamics associated with its expansion in sugarcane frontiers like Goiás. Understanding these dynamics provides critical information for environmental, economic, and political decisions. Here, we investigate the agricultural land-use change dynamics associated with sugarcane production in Goiás and interrogate the relationship between biophysical, institutional, and logistical factors associated with sugarcane expansion. Our results demonstrate that pasture is seven times more likely to be converted to sugarcane than soy, and most new sugarcane area was not sourced in native Cerrado vegetation. Although there exist few biophysical limitations to sugarcane expansion, capital, infrastructure, and institutions constrain production. Lastly, we show that areas where soy is currently cultivated may be converted to sugarcane in the future given the expansion of transportation and sugarcane infrastructure. Thus, we suggest incentivizing the cultivation of sugarcane on degraded pastures and supporting increased pasture stocking rates to ensure continued protection of both natural vegetation and food production while supporting the expansion of sugarcane in the state.     

Trade-offs of European agricultural abandonment

Agricultural land abandonment is a policy challenge, especially for areas with unfavorable conditions for agriculture and remote and mountainous areas. Agricultural abandonment is an important land use process in many world regions and one of the dominant land use change processes in Europe. Previous studies have shown that abandonment can have both positive and negative effects on several environmental processes, influenced by location and scale. Preferred policies and management of these areas are debated given concerns for the loss of (traditional) agricultural landscapes and potential impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We present a European-scale impact assessment of the possible effects of agricultural abandonment, based on eight indicators that are on the forefront of the agricultural abandonment debate. Using a multi-scale modelling approach, we expect between 71.277 and 211.814 km² of agricultural abandonment in 2040. Impacts on the indicators and trade-offs between the impacts are spatially variable. A typology of typical trade-off bundles at a 1 km² resolution resulted in four typical trade-off clusters. All clusters identified are characterized by a loss of agriculture-related values, such as agro-biodiversity and cultural heritage. For two clusters, this was accompanied by positive effects on indicators such as carbon sequestration, nature recreation and mammal habitat suitability. Overall, our results indicate that location and scale are key to assess the trade-offs originating from agricultural abandonment in Europe. Identification of typical trade-offs bundles can help to distinguish potential desirable outcomes of agricultural abandonment and assist in targeting measures to areas that face similar management challenges.     

Trade-offs between conservation and socio-economic objectives in managing a tropical marine ecosystem

Understanding the trade-off relationships between ecological, economic and social objectives is important in designing policies to manage or restore ecosystems. Using the northern South China Sea (NSCS) as a case study, we explore the trade-offs between conservation and socio-economic objectives in managing fisheries in tropical marine ecosystems. Using a numerical optimization routine and ecosystem modelling (Ecopath with Ecosim), the study shows that current management of the NSCS is sub-optimal both in terms of conservation and economic objectives. Therefore, improvement in both conservation status and economic benefits can be achieved by reducing fishing capacity. However, the implementation of conservation plans may be hindered by the reduced number of fisheries-related jobs and the lack of alternative livelihoods. Similar trade-offs are apparent in many tropical marine ecosystems. Thus, this paper supports claims from previous studies that solving the alternative livelihood problems appears to be a priority for improving management and conservation in these ecosystems. A buy-back scheme that is funded by fishers might be effective in reducing fishing capacity. However, public funds are required if management objectives focus strongly on conservation. This might be justified by the direct or indirect benefits to society that could be provided by well-conserved ecosystems. This study highlights the conflict between maximizing conservation and social objectives, although win-win solutions between conservation and economic objectives may be possible.     

Trade-offs between carbon sequestration and rural incomes in the N’hambita Community Carbon Project, Mozambique

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of trade-offs between carbon sequestration and farmers’ incomes from land-use systems implemented in a community-based project, in Mozambique. Systems either focus on carbon sequestration or combine sequestration with cash crop cultivation. The latter provide carbon payments with potential income from cash crop sales. Uncertainty about the future costs and benefits of maintaining and utilizing the land-use systems over time is addressed via application of Monte Carlo simulations. Our results show that compared with sequestration-only systems those that combine sequestration and cash crop production have higher net benefits, although they have less carbon-sequestration potential. Homestead planting provides the most attractive balance among competing policy goals. Carbon payments contribute to cash income and may enable smallholders to overcome initial project investment costs.     

Investment decisions: The trade-off between economic and environmental objectives

While there are broader socio-political, psychological, and structural factors that influence investment decisions (see Harris et al., 2016), in line with the critical approach, this study provides an empirical insight into the notion that financialization, specifically the tendency to prioritise economic over environmental objectives, has a strong bearing on how managers view investment trade-off decisions in relation to sustainability issues. The study empirically investigates this notion by examining the investment trade–off preferences of Australian managers in relation to three decision attributes – economic outcomes (i.e. financial returns), environmental impact (i.e. carbon emissions) and stakeholder pressure to consider environmental issues. We use the discrete choice experimental method to quantify the trade-offs between the above mentioned three attributes. In addition, we also investigate the potential effect of three contingency factors on individual's preferences. Specifically, at the organisational level, we explore the effects of financial and environmental rewards and at the individual level, we explore the effect of environmental consciousness. In line with the financialization hypotheses our results indicate that managers prioritise financial returns over carbon emissions and stakeholder pressures with the preference for financial returns found to be positively associated with rewards for financial performance. However, in line with the pragmatic approach and despite the overall dominance of financial returns, there is evidence that manager's focus on financial returns can be influenced, with the preference for financial returns negatively associated with rewards for environmental performance and environmental consciousness. In addition, while stakeholder pressure was not found to be associated with any of the three contingency factors and, manager's emphasis on carbon emissions was not associated with financial rewards, manager's emphasis on carbon emissions was found to be positively associated with both rewards for environmental performance and environmental consciousness. Therefore, our findings suggest that corporate management have an important role to play, both in respect to the design of performance rewards systems and the recruitment of environmentally conscious managers, in order to promote the sustainability agenda.     

Environmental impact, quality, and price: Consumer trade-offs and the development of environmentally friendly technologies

The paper examines the effect of heterogeneous consumer trade-offs - between environmental performance, quality of service characteristics, and price - on the generation and diffusion of environmentally benign technology paradigms. We find that the direction, timing, and environmental impact of new paradigms is shaped by the distribution of consumer trade-offs. Of key importance are the initial distributions of consumer preferences, and how those distributions evolve over time. This has serious implications on environmental pollution, and for policy makers seeking to influence the ‘greening’ of consumer demand.     

Foresight — balancing between increasing variety and productive convergence

Extensive involvement of social actors and perspectives is an increasing trend in foresight. Simultaneously, however, the theoretical literature suggests that there is a trade-off between increasing variety and productive convergence. The paper examines, through a sample of recent foresight exercises, how European foresight balances between variety and convergence. The findings support the existence of a trade-off, and suggest that it can be classified in two sub-categories: one between involvement and instrumentality, the other between creativeness and stakeholding. The study offers several options for reconciling and counterbalancing the mutually exclusive inclinations in the organising of foresight.