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1.
集体钉住汇率制与地区金融稳定——兼评人民币汇率制度改革 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Chen Quangong 《国际金融研究》2006,(2)
20世纪90年代以来,东亚地区是国际金融比较动荡的地区之一。麦金农主张东亚各经济体实行“集体钉住美元”制度,以保证地区金融稳定。从理论和实践分析,集体钉住汇率制有其内在的稳定机制,也有内源性的动荡缺陷,稳定性和脆弱性同存。目前东亚各国和地区非正式的共同“软钉住美元”,有一定的合理性;但从长远看,这种集体钉住美元制度难以维持。当前人民币汇率改革不会影响东亚地区的金融稳定,维持国内金融稳定,才能防止地区金融动荡。 相似文献
2.
The abstract representation of a transportation system as a network of nodes and interconnecting links, whether that system involves roadways, railways, sea links, airspace, or intermodal combinations, defines a network topology. Among the most common in the context of transportation systems are the grid, ring, hub-and-spoke, complete, scale-free and small-world networks. This paper investigates the role of network topology, and the topology’s characteristics, in a transportation system’s ability to cope with disaster. Specifically, the paper hypothesizes that the topological attributes of a transportation system significantly affect its resilience to disaster events. Resilience accounts for not only the innate ability of the system to absorb externally induced changes, but also cost-effective and efficient, adaptive actions that can be taken to preserve or restore performance post-event. Comprehensive and systematically designed numerical experiments were conducted on 17 network structures with some relation to transportation system layout. Resilience of these network structures in terms of throughput, connectivity or compactness was quantified. Resilience is considered with and without the benefits of preparedness and recovery actions. The impact of component-level damage on system resilience is also investigated. A comprehensive, systematic analysis of results from these experiments provides a basis for the characterization of highly resilient network topologies and conversely identification of network attributes that might lead to poorly performing systems. 相似文献
3.
Understanding the cascade dynamics of delay propagation under inclement weather is crucial to proactive railway management. In this paper, we proposed a Switching Max-Plus System (SMPS) to model the delay propagation on railway networks, which extends the conventional MPS by incorporating multiple system matrices to capture the dynamic impacts of inclement weather. An algorithm based on the All-Paired Critical-Path (APCP) graph was developed to solve the SMPS, which calculates secondary delays without backtracking the precedent events. The proposed model and its solution algorithm were validated using discrete-time simulations on both artificial and empirical networks. The robustness of railway services was also analyzed using the concepts of vulnerability and diffusivity. 相似文献
4.
Research on vulnerable consumers remains unfailing in macromarketing and social marketing. Yet it is unclear how to operationalize the vulnerable consumers by demographics and further to this it is rarely touched how the vulnerable consumers defined by different measures make decision when choosing the place to shop especially in pharmacy retailing sector. The authors conduct a comparative study of variously-defined vulnerable consumers for their shopping store types in an urban Chinese city to investigate how people with distinct backgrounds develop their decision making rules and choose different types of retail pharmacies. This paper casts light on customer heterogeneity associated with different dimensions of vulnerability by using consumer demographics, and indicates that four dimensions of vulnerability exist as cognitive capability, social relations, behaviors, and the institutional protection in health-related sector. These four aspects of vulnerability play a significant role in identifying different shop selection patterns. Findings suggest that efforts to boost store patronage targeting on various consumer groups should have different strategies to reach consumers’ mindsets. 相似文献
5.
This paper focuses on the estimation of direct damages caused by three flood scenarios with different return periods in the section Făgetul de Sus – Ghimeş – Palanca Pass of Trotuș River, with the aim of highlighting the need of improved land use plans. The damage for three land use classes (residential building, infrastructure and agriculture) were estimated using the damage curves developed by the European Joint Research Centre (JRC) as well as site specific maximum damage values. The data were processed with the help of the ArcMap 10.2 software and FloodRisk tool from QGIS software. Furthermore, the flood risk was assessed using the damage – probability curves, which associates the damage with the corresponding frequency of occurrence. This method was identified and adapted to the characteristics of the study area in order to develop a methodology of flood risk assessment that is answering the question: does the lack of land use plans increase the vulnerability and the flood damage? The results showed that the greatest damages are registered for the residential building land use class for a flood probability of 0.001. In this case the damages reach up to 60% on the scale range of deterioration factor, the total damage value being 2 million euros. For the same hazard probability the total registered damage value for roads is 7500 euro, for railways is around 12,000 euro, while for agriculture is around 84,000 euro. These results highlight the need of protection measures and land use plans development and implementation. Regarding the protection measures we consider that the egalitarianism would be the concept that should be applied in the study area and also an improved cooperation between government, specialized agencies and local authorities at local level would lead to a more efficient flood risk management process. The proposed methodology can be applied for micro-scale analysis, providing quantitative results regarding the flood damage and flood risk assessment. It includes a detailed vulnerability analysis of the elements-at-risk with the aim of developing a more comprehensive approach of flood risk assessment. 相似文献
6.
《Food Policy》2019
This paper presents a simple simulation framework for understanding and analyzing vulnerability to stunting. We utilize Demographic and Health Surveys merged with satellite data on climatic shocks. Children aged 0–5 years are grouped into three categories: consistently stunted, vulnerable, and non-vulnerable. The first group constitutes those who are stunted and will also be stunted in any hypothetical period. Non-vulnerable are those whose likelihood to be stunted is zero. The vulnerable face a probability between 0 and 1 of being stunted. The probability is calculated as the share of years in which the child would be stunted, given the village level distribution of weather shocks over the period 2000–2013. We provide estimates of vulnerability to stunting in Burkina Faso, Northern Ghana, Mali, Northern Nigeria, and Senegal by aggregating over villages, districts and countries. 相似文献
7.
《Food Policy》2016
This study investigates the prevalence, sources and distribution of household vulnerability to food-insecurity in the Punjab, Pakistan. Applying a multilevel model on a large dataset of about 90,000 households, we find that the share of households at risk of becoming food-insecure (vulnerability) is higher than the share that is current food-insecure. Households in rural areas are least vulnerable. In contrast, residents of cities and urban areas experience high level of vulnerability that exceeds the average in the Punjab. The risk-induced vulnerability is higher than the structural-induced vulnerability and vulnerability to idiosyncratic shock is higher than vulnerability to covariate shocks. Findings imply that households in the Punjab are vulnerable not as a result of poor resource endowments but because of risk. The Pakistani government should go beyond mere observed food-insecurity to address the needs of the relatively larger population that is at risk of being food-insecure in the future. 相似文献
8.
乡镇企业的环境污染问题其产生原因是多方面的,主要有乡镇企业地理环境的自身脆弱性,相关利益者的不作为以及乡镇企业的环境产权不明晰等原因,为此应该采取法律、行政、经济和教育等各种措施来加大对乡镇企业环境污染问题的治理。 相似文献
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本文基于2007年至2019年我国14家上市银行的股票收益率,构建偏态t-分布动态因子Copula模型,利用时变荷载因子刻画单家银行与整个系统的相关性,计算联合风险概率作为系统性风险整体水平的度量,基于关联性视角提出了新的单家机构系统脆弱性和系统重要性度量指标——系统脆弱性程度和系统重要性程度。该方法充分考虑了银行个体差异性和系统的内在关联性以及收益率的厚尾性和非对称性,从而能够捕捉到更多的信息且兼具时效性。研究表明:银行机构在风险聚集时期相关程度更大,联合风险概率能够准确识别出系统性风险事件且在我国推行宏观审慎评估体系以后有明显降低;整体而言,大型商业银行系统重要性水平最高,同时风险抗压能力也最强;本文使用的度量方法降低了数据获取成本且更具时效性,有助于为宏观审慎差异化监管工作提供借鉴和参考。 相似文献
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从理论上论述了政府干预科技创新与金融创新耦合系统脆弱性的必要性、途径及作用机制。基于以耦合系统内部结构为表征的实体子系统脆弱性和以公共创新环境、耦合系统综合效益为测评工具的虚像子系统脆弱性3个维度构建耦合系统脆弱性指数,分别采用静态面板固定效应回归及动态面板两阶段系统GMM回归,实证检验了我国政府干预对耦合系统脆弱性的实质影响。研究表明:在各类干预举措中,政府采购政策与知识产权保护政策效应明显,特别是知识产权保护政策效应潜力巨大;财政政策领域明显存在过度干预现象,其它政策效应或不显著或有违初衷,亟待调整与完善。 相似文献