集体钉住汇率制与地区金融稳定——兼评人民币汇率制度改革

20世纪90年代以来,东亚地区是国际金融比较动荡的地区之一。麦金农主张东亚各经济体实行“集体钉住美元”制度,以保证地区金融稳定。从理论和实践分析,集体钉住汇率制有其内在的稳定机制,也有内源性的动荡缺陷,稳定性和脆弱性同存。目前东亚各国和地区非正式的共同“软钉住美元”,有一定的合理性;但从长远看,这种集体钉住美元制度难以维持。当前人民币汇率改革不会影响东亚地区的金融稳定,维持国内金融稳定,才能防止地区金融动荡。     

我国商业银行体系脆弱性形成因素及应对策略

美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机迅速蔓延,并对世界经济体系和金融体系造成严重损害。我国商业银行体系脆弱性现况明显,本文从我国国有银行的现况进行分析,然后对其原因进行分析。介绍了因子分析的思想及方法,然后运用因子分析模型进行了数据分析。最后提出防范国有商业银行脆弱性的对策和建议。     

城乡收入差距、民工失业与中国犯罪率的上升

本文利用1988—2008年省级面板数据研究后发现:首先,没有明显的证据表明省内城乡收入差距的扩大必然增加各省的犯罪率。其次,中国犯罪率的上升和"第五次犯罪高峰"的产生与城市登记失业率有关:一方面,它意味着民工失业率也可能在上升,城市居民和民工失业的增加都会直接推动犯罪率上升,而由于失业的民工缺乏最低生活保障和社会保险,他们会更加脆弱并更容易走向犯罪,因此会更容易推动犯罪率的上升;另一方面,城市失业率的上升还会推动地方政府采取更加歧视民工的就业政策来保护城市居民的就业,因而在犯罪率上升和犯罪高峰持续的过程中起到了推波助澜的作用。本文的解释对于理解中国经济社会的发展及制定降低犯罪率的公共政策提供了重要启示。     

Why do some consumers shop in this pharmacy? A cross-check of vulnerable characteristics and store types

Research on vulnerable consumers remains unfailing in macromarketing and social marketing. Yet it is unclear how to operationalize the vulnerable consumers by demographics and further to this it is rarely touched how the vulnerable consumers defined by different measures make decision when choosing the place to shop especially in pharmacy retailing sector. The authors conduct a comparative study of variously-defined vulnerable consumers for their shopping store types in an urban Chinese city to investigate how people with distinct backgrounds develop their decision making rules and choose different types of retail pharmacies. This paper casts light on customer heterogeneity associated with different dimensions of vulnerability by using consumer demographics, and indicates that four dimensions of vulnerability exist as cognitive capability, social relations, behaviors, and the institutional protection in health-related sector. These four aspects of vulnerability play a significant role in identifying different shop selection patterns. Findings suggest that efforts to boost store patronage targeting on various consumer groups should have different strategies to reach consumers’ mindsets.     

基于动态因子Copula模型的我国银行系统性风险度量

本文基于2007年至2019年我国14家上市银行的股票收益率,构建偏态t-分布动态因子Copula模型,利用时变荷载因子刻画单家银行与整个系统的相关性,计算联合风险概率作为系统性风险整体水平的度量,基于关联性视角提出了新的单家机构系统脆弱性和系统重要性度量指标——系统脆弱性程度和系统重要性程度。该方法充分考虑了银行个体差异性和系统的内在关联性以及收益率的厚尾性和非对称性,从而能够捕捉到更多的信息且兼具时效性。研究表明:银行机构在风险聚集时期相关程度更大,联合风险概率能够准确识别出系统性风险事件且在我国推行宏观审慎评估体系以后有明显降低;整体而言,大型商业银行系统重要性水平最高,同时风险抗压能力也最强;本文使用的度量方法降低了数据获取成本且更具时效性,有助于为宏观审慎差异化监管工作提供借鉴和参考。     

Living on the edge: Household vulnerability to food-insecurity in the Punjab,Pakistan

This study investigates the prevalence, sources and distribution of household vulnerability to food-insecurity in the Punjab, Pakistan. Applying a multilevel model on a large dataset of about 90,000 households, we find that the share of households at risk of becoming food-insecure (vulnerability) is higher than the share that is current food-insecure. Households in rural areas are least vulnerable. In contrast, residents of cities and urban areas experience high level of vulnerability that exceeds the average in the Punjab. The risk-induced vulnerability is higher than the structural-induced vulnerability and vulnerability to idiosyncratic shock is higher than vulnerability to covariate shocks. Findings imply that households in the Punjab are vulnerable not as a result of poor resource endowments but because of risk. The Pakistani government should go beyond mere observed food-insecurity to address the needs of the relatively larger population that is at risk of being food-insecure in the future.     

Vulnerability to stunting in the West African Sahel

This paper presents a simple simulation framework for understanding and analyzing vulnerability to stunting. We utilize Demographic and Health Surveys merged with satellite data on climatic shocks. Children aged 0–5 years are grouped into three categories: consistently stunted, vulnerable, and non-vulnerable. The first group constitutes those who are stunted and will also be stunted in any hypothetical period. Non-vulnerable are those whose likelihood to be stunted is zero. The vulnerable face a probability between 0 and 1 of being stunted. The probability is calculated as the share of years in which the child would be stunted, given the village level distribution of weather shocks over the period 2000–2013. We provide estimates of vulnerability to stunting in Burkina Faso, Northern Ghana, Mali, Northern Nigeria, and Senegal by aggregating over villages, districts and countries.     

一种社区商业模式脆弱性探析

脆弱性分析在诸领域中作为新兴研究方法,越来越受到关注。研究社区商业脆弱性是实现社区商业良性发展的重要内容。本文利用脆弱性原理,针对便利城模式表现出脆弱性的不同侧面,在环境因素干扰及居民多样化需求下,便利城结构发生不稳定性和波动现象,通过建立脆弱性模型及气压场模型,分析了便利城结构脆弱性现象及产生原因并提出应对策略。     

Vulnerability assessment of water resources to climate change in Chinese cities

Climate change is an inevitable trend,which challenges security of water resources in China,especially in cities.Assessing vulnerability of water resource to climate change in cities has important role for policy makers. The paper constructs a vulnerability function,including exposure,sensitivity and adaptive capacity,according to the vulnerability concept proposed by IPCC,establishes an assessment indicators system of water resources to climate change in cities,and analyzes vulnerability features of Chinese cites based on 655 cities＇data in 2006.The vulnerability assessment results show that there are distinctive differences among all the cities,between east,central and west cities,between ordinary,big and mega cities,while there is no statistical significant difference between north and south cities.Based on the research,the paper suggests that strategic emphasis should focus on the central cities and ordinary cities     

再议因患寡而患不均:中国家庭住宅权属差异及其对内需增长的影响

住宅权属差异导致了家庭住宅财富差异,进而影响了家庭消费偏好.本文基于一个非住宅耐用品消费决策的随机最优控制模型,采用1991—2006年 CHNS 数据并运用动态面板数据模型,考察了家庭住宅权属差异对耐用品消费的影响.本文的主要发现是,同理论预期一致,自有住宅家庭的耐用品消费明显高于租住房屋家庭,而且住宅权属消费效应随着家庭脆弱性增强而下降.本文的政策含义是要通过降低家庭脆弱性、创新保障性住房分配模式来缩小居民住宅权属差异和促进消费增长