FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model

We develop an open-economy New Keynesian Model with foreign exchange (FX) intervention in the presence of a financial accelerator and shocks to risk appetite in international capital markets. We obtain closed-form solutions for optimal monetary and FX intervention policies assuming the central bank cannot commit to future policies, and we compare the solution to that under policy commitment. We show how FX intervention can help reduce the volatility of the exchange rate, of inflation, and of the output gap, thus mitigating welfare losses associated with shocks in the international capital markets. We also show that, when the financial accelerator is strong, there is a risk of indeterminacy (self-fulfilling currency and inflation movements) although FX intervention can reduce this risk and thus reinforce the credibility of the inflation targeting regime. Model simulations match well the impact of a VIX shock obtained by local projections on a panel of inflation targeting emerging markets.     

Utilizing the access value of customers

Customers are critical resources for the success of any business, not only because they bring in sales and profits directly, but also because of their access value in a world that is becoming increasingly interconnected. However, the mechanisms by which the customer access value may be exploited and the implication for management has not been well understood. Access value can be defined as the worth of utilizing patrons for further marketing and sales of value-added or third party products. The access value, which mainly results from the aggregation of the customer base and customer data, is essentially a corporation's internalized asset. This article shows that the size of the customer base and the extent of engagement have a significant impact on the customer access value. To develop and gain the benefits of customer access value, traditional business models often need to be transformed: firms and platforms should provide free or subsidized products to attract people and then embed value-added products to make money. The success of the new business model depends on not only the right pricing and product strategies, but also an embedding strategy.     

浅谈黑客常用的攻击方法与防范措施

互联网发展至今,除了它表面的繁荣外,也出现了一些不好的现象,其中网络安全问题特别被人们看重。近年来出现了许多黑客软件,经常使用的获取口令、放置特洛伊木马程序、网络监听、寻找系统漏洞等九种攻击方法很容易对他人造成损害。为防范黑客攻击,必须加强安全防范体系建设,对互联网用户加强安全教育,牢固树立安全防范意识,在使用过程中,要坚持采取关闭不必要的服务、安装补丁程序、关闭无用的甚至有害的端口、删除Guest账号、限制不必要的用户数量、及时备份重要数据、使用加密机制传输数据等基本的防护手段。     

货币危机理论综述

20世纪 90年代 ,在欧洲、拉美、东南亚以及其它地区发生的货币危机 ,引起了世界范围对货币投机攻击和固定汇率崩溃的关注。为了理解货币危机发生的原因和后果 ,研究人员进行了大量的理论和经验方面的研究工作。本文主要对有关货币危机理论文献进行较为详细的综述 ,为以后的研究提供一个平台。     

弹群组网应用与关键技术

随着弹药技术及网络技术的快速发展,弹群组网作战系统作为未来作战体系中的重要角色受到了世界各国的高度关注。简要概述了国外弹群组网作战系统的发展趋势,并对弹群组网作战能力进行了定性分析;在此基础上,建立了基于多层面、多子网、同构与异构并存、有中心与无中心网络的弹群组网混合体系架构,并对其功能及特点进行了详细分析;对弹群组网作战系统亟待解决的关键技术进行了梳理,为其工程应用提供了理论参考。     

使用深度学习的社交物联网信任预测模型

社交物联网是社交网络概念在物联网中整合后兴起的一个蓬勃发展的研究领域。提出了一种适用于社交物联网网络的改进型节点级信任模型,并通过与其他信任模型的对比仿真实验证明在恶意节点的攻击下,提出的模型拥有更好的稳定性和适用性,总体波动较小。同时,针对实际社交物联网网络中新加入网络的陌生节点可能遇到的网络延迟影响信任值评估的问题,在改进型节点级信任模型的基础上进一步使用了深度学习模型对其进行信任值预测。仿真证明,使用深度学习预测后模型的系统性能明显优于不使用深度学习的模型,成功交互率提升约1.8%。     

虚拟经济视角下的货币冲击与通货膨胀问题研究

中国当前面临的通货膨胀压力从本质上看,是人民币供给量快速增长导致流动性膨胀的结果.事实上,货币供给的冲击对于实体经济和虚拟经济的影响是不同的:虚拟经济对于货币冲击的吸收能力大于实体经济.因此,我们必须大力发展虚拟经济,丰富其产品的种类,增加交易数量,从而能够有效地吸收货币冲击,防止通货膨胀.     

Measuring and testing the long-term impact of terrorist attacks on the US futures market

This study compares the accuracy and information content of economic forecasts for G7 countries made in the 1990s by the OECD and IMF. The benchmarks for comparison are the average forecasts of private sector economists published by Consensus Economics. With few exceptions, the private sector forecasts are less biased and more accurate in terms of mean absolute error and root mean square error. Formal tests show these differences are statistically significant for forecasts of real growth and production, less so for forecasts of inflation and unemployment. Overall, there appears little information in the OECD and IMF forecasts that could be used to reduce significantly the error in the private sector forecasts.     

攻击型受欺负儿童的特点研究

攻击型受欺负儿童是与攻击者及单纯受欺负者有关的不同群体,这类儿童在社交、学习等方面均表现较差,且有不良情绪问题,是处境较为不利的一类儿童。因此,本研究将系统考察攻击型受欺负儿童的特点,以期系统把握其整体状况,了解家庭各相关变量的影响作用,为家庭教育和心理健康指导提供依据。     

车载移动通信网（VANET）物理层安全问题

基于Ad Hoc网络的车载移动通信网(VANET)由于网络基础的原因,以及VANET自身的特点,带来了很多安全的问题。根据VANET的特点,对VANET进行自顶向下的分层,并针对物理层的攻击进行总结和归纳,再利用现有技术对其中一些攻击给出应对措施。底层的物理层安全的保证对整个VANET的安全至关重要。