EMPIRICAL PERFORMANCE OF GARCH MODELS WITH HEAVY‐TAILED INNOVATIONS

We introduce a new type of heavy‐tailed distribution, the normal reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution (NRIG), to the GARCH and Glosten‐Jagannathan‐Runkle (1993) GARCH models, and compare its empirical performance with two other popular types of heavy‐tailed distribution, the Student's t distribution and the normal inverse Gaussian distribution (NIG), using a variety of asset return series. Our results illustrate that there is no overwhelmingly dominant distribution in fitting the data under the GARCH framework, although the NRIG distribution performs slightly better than the other two types of distribution. For market indexes series, it is important to introduce both GJR‐terms and the NRIG distribution to improve the models’ performance, but it is ambiguous for individual stock prices series. Our results also show the GJR‐GARCH NRIG model has practical advantages in quantitative risk management. Finally, the convergence of numerical solutions in maximum‐likelihood estimation of GARCH and GJR‐GARCH models with the three types of heavy‐tailed distribution is investigated.     

跨国公司与发展中国家的社会稳定--兼论对中国的影响

跨国公司作为全球化的驱动器既给发展中国家的政治、经济与社会稳定带来正面影响，甚至成为社会稳定的一种标志，但又不可避免地产生一些负面效应。中国要在开放中坚持双赢的策略并加大风险意识，同时应倡导跨国公司承担更大的社会责任。     

悬浮床加氢裂化工艺技术经济分析

介绍了重油悬浮床加氢裂化工艺的最新发展，对国内新开发的悬浮床加氢裂化工艺特点作了介绍。并将悬浮床加氢和三种重油轻质化工艺——固定床加氢、延迟焦化、重油催化裂化在技术经济上作了分析对比。在原油品质越来越差的今天，针对劣质重油而开发的的悬浮床加氢裂化工艺具有非常广阔的应用前景。     

己内酰胺浓缩工艺初探

文章通过对己内酰胺精制装置改扩建项目的对比分析,探讨改用“环己酮氨肟化技术”后,己内酰胺浓缩部分采用新工艺去杂的可能性,提出适合新技术条件下的己内酰胺浓缩工艺,并运用流程模拟软件“ASPEN”对新老工艺进行模拟计算,分析新工艺去除杂质的可行性。     

Intended electoral participation in transition countries

This paper examines the determinants of intended electoral participation. We analyze attitudes to both referenda and voting in national elections. Sample survey data are obtained from the Eurobarometer survey of transition countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The empirical results suggest that intended electoral participation increases with age, income and education. But attitudinal variables are also important and in particular confidence in the free market economy and satisfaction with the general development of the country impact positively on intended electoral participation. Received: Received: April 2003 / Accepted: August 2004, Accepted: Received: April 2003 / Accepted: August 2004, JEL Classification: H26, K42 We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of CERGE-EI. We are also grateful for the helpful comments of three anonymous referees, the journal editor and R. Filer and L. Squires.     

关于提高印花税税率的冷思考

印花税税率调高会带来交易费用的上升,可以抑制短期投机,从而在一定程度上稳定市场。但在我国证券税制不完善的情况下,股票交易的印花税存在缺乏法律依据、税种错位、职能错位、征收范围错位等问题,其身兼数职,扮演了多税种合一的角色,仅靠调整印花税难以真正达到压缩股市泡沫、促进资本市场健康发展的效果,还会带来印花税其他职能的丧失。因此,开征差异性证券交易税,对印花税进一步改革已迫在眉睫。     

我国行业协会的职能分析

目前,我国行业协会的基本职能是为企业服务、协助政府部门加强行业管理以及自律、协调、监督和维护企业合法权益;为适应新形势,我国行业协会还应从开拓国际市场、影响政府产业政策及参与立法、协助企业调解与职工关系等方面拓展其职能.     

论我国税收信息化的建设及其意义

我国税收信息化的建设与发展,特别是金税工程的建设、税收征管软件的推广应用和出口退税管理系统的信息化建设,极大地促进了我国税收管理的现代化进程。     

垃圾焚烧飞灰的固定化技术概况

在我国采用焚烧法处理生活垃圾呈增长的趋势,如何处理焚烧过程产生的飞灰业已成为受人关注的问题。目前国外采用水泥固化、沥青固化、飞灰热处理(熔融及烧结)、化学药剂固化等方法对其进行无害化处理,经固定化处理后的飞灰可进入填埋或进行资源化利用。这些方法对我国的从业者具有一定的参考作用。此文介绍了国内外飞灰处理的研究进展。     

浅析工业设备支撑体系方案优化的思路

设备承重支撑体系是一种特殊的结构形式,在我国工业项目中的应用范围越来越广,设备支撑结构体系类似于民建钢框架结构、钢框架-支撑结构体系。重型设备的支撑点主要集中在结构体系的局部楼层,导致上下楼层质量、刚度比例偏差较大,设备布置偏心,不满足抗震设防要求[1]。随着传统工业的工艺技术不断革新、新型工艺技术的发展、重型设备的出现,优化钢结构承重支撑体系势在必行。在满足承载能力和使用要求的前提下,可打破常规规则与相对不规则结构形式间的界限。依据结构专业设计条件[2]、操作楼层和承重楼层分别设计的优化思路,对降低钢材用量、节约项目成本具有现实意义。鉴于此,论文主要对现阶段工业承重体系的优缺点进行分析,提出其承重钢结构体系优化的构想和措施。