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1.
2.
Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances.
We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is
followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria.
The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact
on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes
of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables
and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models.
JEL no. F32, C23, C53 相似文献
3.
陈石松 《安徽工业大学学报(社会科学版)》2004,21(2):5-6
毛泽东具有高超的科学预见的能力。毛泽东的科学预见能力在于他掌握了社会调查的方法 ,正确地运用对立统一规律和量变到质变的规律 ,以及采取“从群众中来 ,到群众中去”的方法。学习毛泽东关于中国革命的科学预测理论与方法 ,对于处理当今国际国内的各种复杂问题有着十分重要的意义。 相似文献
4.
In-depth data analysis plus statistical modeling can produce inferentialcausal models. Their creation thus combines aspects of analysis by close inspection,that is, reason analysis and cross-tabular analysis, with statistical analysis procedures,especially those that are special cases of the generalized linear model (McCullaghand Nelder, 1989; Agresti, 1996; Lindsey, 1997). This paper explores some of the roots of this combined method and suggests some new directions. An exercise clarifies some limitations of classic reason analysis by showing how the cross tabulation of variables with controls for test factors may produce better inferences. Then, given the cross tabulation of several variables, by explicating Coleman effect parameters, logistic regressions, and Poisson log-linear models, it shows how generalized linear models provide appropriate measures of effects and tests of statistical significance. Finally, to address a weakness of reason analysis, a case-control design is proposed and an example is developed. 相似文献
5.
Repeated measurements often are analyzed by multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). An alternative approach is provided by multilevel analysis, also called the hierarchical linear model (HLM), which makes use of random coefficient models. This paper is a tutorial which indicates that the HLM can be specified in many different ways, corresponding to different sets of assumptions about the covariance matrix of the
repeated measurements. The possible assumptions range from the very restrictive compound symmetry model to the unrestricted
multivariate model. Thus, the HLM can be used to steer a useful middle road between the two traditional methods for analyzing repeated measurements. Another
important advantage of the multilevel approach to analyzing repeated measures is the fact that it can be easily used also
if the data are incomplete. Thus it provides a way to achieve a fully multivariate analysis of repeated measures with incomplete
data.
This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
6.
Statistical inference based on the Weibull distribution, a distribution widely used in reliability and survival analysis,
is usually difficult as it often involves numerical computation and approximation. However, this distribution can be transformed
to near-normality by a simple power transformation. Based on this transformation, a prediction interval (PI) for its median
can be easily constructed through an inverse transformation. The procedure for selecting the best power transformation through
minimizing Kullback-Leibler information is described. The property of this transformation-based PI is investigated. Simple
correction factors are also proposed. It is shown that the transformation-based PI with corrections performs well, irrespective
of the sample size and parameter values. Simulation results show that the new PI generally outperforms the existing PI. Numerical
examples are given for illustration. 相似文献
7.
本文首先由我国的CPI计算出通货膨胀率,综合分析了我国通货膨胀率和GDP增长率数据。其次,用带有动量项和自适应学习率的BP神经网络预测出2008~2009年我国CPI,从而推算出2008~2009年我国通货膨胀率分别是4.99%和4.91%左右。并提出了一些相应的政策建议。 相似文献
8.
Sunil Poshakwale 《Journal of Business Finance & Accounting》2002,29(9&10):1275-1299
This paper examines the random walk hypothesis in the emerging Indian stock market using daily data on individual stocks. The statistical evidence in this paper rejects the random walk hypothesis. The results suggest that daily returns earned by individual stocks and by an equally weighted portfolio show significant non–linear dependence and persistent volatility effects. The non–linear dependence takes the form of ARCH–type conditional heteroskedasticity and does not appear to be caused by nonstationarity of underlying economic variables. Though conditional volatility is time varying, it does not explain expected returns. 相似文献
9.
In this paper, we provide a model for diffusion of products, which are available in limited quantity until a known expiration date, after which the unsold products have no value. We consider the case of a performing arts company. The model development is built on the foundation of classical product diffusion model by Bass (1969) and the psychological effect known as the scarcity principle (Cialdini, 1985). Our empirical analysis results show that the proposed model can provide significant improvement in prediction of the products characterized by the scarcity effect. 相似文献
10.
面向售后服务的汽车备品需求预测研究 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
根据面向售后服务的汽车备品需求特点的差异,本文将其分为专用配件和通用配件并分别选用不同的预测模型.对专用配件,采用基于时间序列相关的线性回归模型,并运用加权最小二乘法(WLS)估计参数.对通用配件,选用GM(1,1)模型进行需求预测. 相似文献