死亡率免疫理论及其在长寿风险对冲中的应用

基于死亡率免疫理论探讨保险公司长寿风险的自然对冲问题,研究年龄、性别与保险期限等因素与保单久期和凸性之间的关系,发现保险公司欲达到长寿风险的完全对冲,其寿险业务和年金业务必须达到的最小ρ比例应该等于年金和寿险保单的久期之比,表明保险公司可以通过选择调整寿险和年金业务的比例来对冲长寿风险的影响。     

Life Expectancy Heterogeneity and the Political Support for Collective Annuities

Individuals, differing in productivity and life expectancy, vote over the size and type of a collective annuity. Its type is represented by the fraction of the contributive (Bismarckian) component (based on the worker's past earnings) as opposed to the non‐contributive (Beveridgean) part (based on average contribution). The equilibrium collective annuity is either a large mostly Bismarckian program, a smaller pure Beveridgean one (in accordance with empirical evidence), or nil. A larger correlation between longevity and productivity, or a larger average life expectancy, both make the equilibrium collective annuity program more Beveridgean, although at the expense of its size.     

Sustainability of A Pay‐as‐you‐Go Pension System in A Small Open Economy with Ageing,Human Capital and Endogenous Fertility

The aim of the article is to theoretically investigate if a pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) pension system is sustainable in the presence of a declining population and increasing longevity of the retired generation. For this purpose, we use an overlapping generation model with endogenous fertility, endogenous longevity and human capital accumulation in a small open economy. We find that pensions will always increase as long as it is beneficial for parents to invest in human capital. Furthermore, we get the result that the ratio between pension benefits and the consumption of the young generation will strive to a positive limit value, and that a pure PAYG pension system will not run into any solvency problem due to a decreasing fertility rate or ageing.     

Product pricing and solvency capital requirements for long-term care insurance

This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of premiums, reserves and solvency capital requirements (SCRs) for long-term care (LTC) insurance policies using Activities of Daily Living and US data. We compare stand-alone policies, whole life insurance policies with LTC benefit riders (LTC insurance combined with whole life insurance), life care annuities (LTC insurance combined with annuities) and shared LTC insurance in terms of net premium cost and SCRs. Net premiums and best-estimate reserves for base LTC insurance policies are determined using Thiele’s differential equation. Product features such as the elimination period and the maximum benefit period are compared using a simulation-based model. We show how a maximum benefit period can reduce costs and risks for LTC insurance products. SCRs for longevity risk and disability risk are based on the Solvency II standard formula. We quantify the extent to which whole life insurance policies with LTC benefit riders and life care annuities provide lower SCRs than stand-alone LTC insurance policies.     

Let chaos reign,then rein in chaos—repeatedly: managing strategic dynamics for corporate longevity

Combining longitudinal field research and executive experience, we propose that corporate longevity depends on matching cycles of autonomous and induced strategy processes to different forms of strategic dynamics, and that the role of alert strategic leadership is to appropriately balance the induced and autonomous processes throughout these cycles. We also propose that such strategic leadership is the means through which leadership style exerts its influence on corporate longevity. Our findings can be related to organizational research on structural inertia, learning and adaptation, as well as to formal theories of complex adaptive systems. They also contribute to resolving the seeming contradiction between a study of corporations that attributes exceptional long‐term success to leadership style, and the more common proposition that strategy is the determinant of long‐term performance. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Intended and unintended termination of international joint ventures

This study proposes that international joint ventures (IJVs) are terminated either when the initial purposes of the formation of the IJV have been achieved (intended termination), or when unanticipated contingencies that emerge in the external, internal, or inter‐partner conditions after the establishment of the IJV impede the continuation of its operation (unintended termination). Our study examines the factors that affect intended and unintended termination and the longevity of IJVs. The findings show that approximately 90 percent of all IJV terminations are unintended and 10 percent intended, and that the frequency of intended termination and unintended termination varies noticeably depending on the initial purposes of formation. This suggests that the termination of IJVs is significantly contingent on their formation. The findings also show that the longevity of IJVs varies according to the initial purposes of formation, the initial conditions under which the IJV is formed, and the types of unanticipated contingencies that it encounters. The key theoretical issues and practical implications of the distinction between the intended and unintended termination of IJVs are also discussed. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国区域长寿的环境机制

用健康地理学综合研究方法,开展了中国典型长寿区的环境研究。发现中国长寿区主要分布在我国南方,尤其是川渝、中原和东南地区以及长江三角洲、珠江三角洲聚集区;长寿区的饮用水呈弱碱性,Se、Fe、K含量适度,且高Ca、Co、Mn,低Cr、Cd、Pb;土壤、粮食中有益的微量元素较高;百岁老人头发中Li、Mg、Mn、Ca、Zn等元素普遍含量较高,Cd、Cr、Cu、Ni低。百岁老人健康还得益于良好的社会环境因素,如生理健康、心理状态积极、膳食清淡、蔬菜比例高等。该研究首次定量提示了长寿与自然环境和人文环境的关系,为促进中国"长寿之乡"发展,实现我国生态文明建设提供科学依据。     

ENVIRONMENTAL DYNAMICS AND THE LINKS BETWEEN GROWTH,VOLATILITY AND MORTALITY

I construct a model of a growing economy with pollution. The analysis of the model shows that the interactions between capital accumulation, endogenous lifetime and environmental quality determine both the long‐run growth rate and the pattern of convergence (i.e., monotonic or cyclical) towards the balanced growth path. I argue that such interactions can provide a possible explanatory factor behind the, empirically observed, negative correlation between growth and volatility. Furthermore, the model may capture the observed pattern whereby economic growth and mortality rates appear to be negatively related in the long run, but positively related in the short run.     

MEASURING VARIATIONS IN LIFETIME WELFARE EX ANTE AND EX POST: SOME EXPLORATORY CALCULATIONS

Whereas longevity‐adjusted consumption measures have become increasingly used as indicators of lifetime standards of living, it remained unnoticed that those measures, by relying on period – rather than cohort – life tables, constitute indicators of expected – rather than actual – lifetime standards of living. In order to estimate the actual gap between ex ante and ex post measures of lifetime welfare, this paper computes, for 19th‐century European economies, longevity‐adjusted consumption measures based on period and cohort life tables. It is shown that the gap between ex ante and ex post measures is statistically significant, and that attempts to reduce it are likely to be unsuccessful, because standards of living tend to exhibit, over temporal horizons as long as a human life, structural breaks, which make the ex ante measurement of lifetime welfare highly speculative.     

Lee—Carter框架下基于Wang变换的生存债券定价研究

为了给人寿保险公司和退休基金套期长寿风险提供一种非传统风险转移方式,我们设计了一种以公共死亡率指数为标的的一种生存债券.通过经典的Lee-Carter模型预测死亡率指数,并利用著名的Wang变换为带息票生存债券定价.