辽宁省金融脆弱性研究

当前关于金融脆弱性的研究集中于国家这一宏观层面，对于省域金融脆弱性的研究还存在相当大的研究空间。正是基于这样一种相对创新性的视角，在对金融脆弱性现有研究进行综述的基础上对辽宁省的金融脆弱性的诱因进行了分析，并提出推动非银行金融机构的发展、拓展规模较大的银行的非利息收益以提升银行盈利能力以及全力清除不良贷款是应对辽宁省金融脆弱性的可行策略。     

汇率波动、货币错配与银行稳定:理论及经验分析

伴随着经济的开放,汇率波动对银行经营的影响亦越来越大.本币贬值会改变企业和银行的资产负债状况,加剧银行危机.汇率波动与银行脆弱性的理论基础来自三种观点:道德风险论、原罪论和承诺问题论.在本币升值的情况下,银行资产的货币错配可能引发银行危机.我国人民币存在持续的升值压力,随着资本项目的进一步开放,利益驱动下的货币错配将大量暴露在汇率变动的风险中.     

双循环格局下“引进来”与“走出去”能否纠正资本错配?——来自省级层面的经验证据

提高资本配置效率是加快构建双循环新发展格局的重要抓手。在测算分析中国各省份资本错配程度的基础上,通过构建面板数据模型实证检验了"引进来"与"走出去"的资本错配纠正效果。研究结果表明:中国大部分省份的资本错配程度呈下降趋势,但省域之间资本错配程度的非均衡性特征突出,中西部地区的资本错配程度明显高于东部地区;"引进来"与"走出去"有助于提高资本配置效率,起到纠正资本错配的效果;"引进来"与"走出去"战略能够有效地纠正中西部地区的资本错配,提高其资本配置效率,但其在东部省份的作用效果并不明显。在考虑反向因果和异常值的影响后,研究结论依旧稳健。     

中国货币错配引致原因的实证分析: 1986～2005

货币错配是发展中国家普遍存在的一种经济金融现象,研究这一现象对我国汇率制度改革和金融深化过程中经济金融政策的制订具有重要的意义。文章首先简单介绍了国外对货币错配引致原因的最新研究成果,在此基础上对1986年至2005年间我国货币错配的引致原因进行了实证检验,实证结果表明,国家的经济规模、金融市场的发展水平和实际有效汇率的变动等因素对我国的货币错配程度有着显著的影响,最后结合我国货币错配现象的特点对以上因素的影响机制进行了分析。     

隐瞒信息、寻租与保障房错配

审计署及部分省审计厅发布的保障性安居工程审计结果表明,部分不符合条件家庭"不应进却进""应退却未退"保障房,造成了部分保障房错配。在上述典型事实的基础上,厘清造成保障房错配的各影响因素,进而构建不符合条件家庭与保障房分配政策执行者之间的博弈模型进行不对称信息静态博弈分析,求解不符合条件家庭隐瞒信息或寻租行为与影响因素之间的定量关系。因此,为了提高保障房的配置效率,需要提高监管精准度、降低监管成本、加大处罚力度、压缩保障房利润空间等。     

The (un)importance of geographical mobility in the Great Recession

Unemployment during and after the Great Recession has been persistently high. One concern is that the housing bust reduced geographical mobility and prevented workers from moving for jobs. We characterize flows out of unemployment that are related to geographical mobility to construct an upper bound on the effect of mobility on unemployment between 2007 and 2012. The effect of geographical mobility is always small: Using pre-recession mobility rates, decreased mobility can account for only an 11 basis points increase in the unemployment rate over the period. Using dynamics of renter geographical mobility in this period to calculate homeowner counterfactual mobility, delivers similar results. Using the highest mobility rate observed in the data, reduced mobility accounts for only a 33 basis points increase in the unemployment rate.     

The role of foreign currency debt in financial crises: 1880–1913 versus 1972–1997

We show that exposure to foreign currency debt does not necessarily increase the risk of having a financial crisis. Some countries do not suffer from financial fragility despite original sin. Before 1913 British offshoots and Scandinavia afflicted with it avoided financial meltdowns. Today many advanced countries have original sin, but few have had crises. In both periods, aggregate balance sheet mismatches are associated with a greater likelihood of a crisis. The evidence suggests that foreign currency debt is dangerous when mis-managed. This is part of the difference between developed countries and emerging markets both of which borrow in foreign currency.     

工业用地空间错配对长三角城市群产业分工的影响研究

研究目的：考察工业用地空间错配对长三角城市群产业分工的影响效应及作用机制，为从土地资源配置视角深化产业分工提供科学依据。研究方法：动态面板模型、中介效应模型。研究结果：（1）样本考察期内，长三角地区工业用地空间错配有所改善，中心城市总体呈短缺型错配，外围城市总体呈过剩型错配。（2）工业用地空间错配对产业分工具有显著且稳健的负面影响。（3）区域异质性分析表明，工业用地空间错配对产业分工的负面影响呈现中心城市＞外围城市＞城市群总体；时间异质性分析表明，随着2016年长三角地区土地约束加码，工业用地空间错配对产业分工的负面影响增强。（4）影响机制分析表明，工业用地空间错配促进了产业由中心城市向外围城市转移，但中心城市高端制造业流失和外围城市承接产业同质化，抑制了产业分工深化。研究结论：稳步推进工业用地空间错配的纠偏和制定科学的产业转移规划，是深化城市群产业分工、推进城市群高质量发展的有效途径。     

Gender wage inequality and labour mobility in the hospitality sector

The main aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly we analyse the effects of educational mismatch on workers’ occupational mobility and secondly, we quantify the contribution of educational mismatch and labour mobility on gender wage inequality. The decomposition of the gender wage gap was controlled by different types of gender segregation. We use matched employer-employee data from 302 hotels in Andalusia. The evidence suggests that not only is external mobility far higher than internal mobility in this sector, but also that it is the main cause of wage inequality. The reason for this is the existence of labour discrimination against women, which manifests as a lack of access to labour improvements under the same conditions as men. Educational mismatch has a limited effect on internal and external mobility. Finally, gender discrimination is the overall cause of gender wage inequality and is mainly due to horizontal segregation and external mobility.     

货币错配与通货膨胀目标制的不可行性：针对我国现实

现阶段我国正面临人民币汇率稳定与物价稳定的"两难冲突",国内外一些学者主张我国应该采用通货膨胀目标制。从货币错配的角度探讨通货膨胀目标制在我国的可行性表明,由于存在较严重的货币错配及特殊的国情,现阶段我国尚不具备实行通货膨胀目标制的条件,短期内,通货膨胀目标制在我国并不具有可行性,货币政策适合以货币供应数量和价格作为混合使用的政策调控目标。