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1.
《Food Policy》2020
Although optimal monetary policy stabilizes food inflation theoretically, empirical studies remain limited not only in the context of volumes and the estimation approaches, but are focused on selected advanced and emerging countries to the neglect of Africa where poverty and dominance of food in the consumption basket are more pronounced. We provide empirical evidence in the context of South Africa using quantile regressions. Rising food prices are destabilized even further by restrictive monetary policy; a finding that has ramifications for inflation targeting, especially given that a quarter of the country’s population is food poor. 相似文献
2.
《Socio》2021
The work presents a robust approach to labor share analysis. The estimate of labor share presents various complexities related to the nature of the data sets to be analyzed. Typically, labor share is evaluated by using discriminant analysis and linear or generalized linear models, that do not take into account the presence of possible outliers. Moreover, the variables to be considered are often characterized by a high dimensional structure. The proposed approach has the objective of improving the estimation of the model using robust multivariate regression techniques and data transformation. 相似文献
3.
Hardle Wolfgang; Herwartz Helmut; Spokoiny Vladimir 《The Journal of Financial Econometrics》2003,1(1):55-95
Price variations at speculative markets exhibit positive autocorrelationand cross correlation. Due to large parameter spaces necessaryfor joint modeling of variances and covariances, multivariateparametric volatility models become easily intractable in practice.We propose an adaptive procedure that identifies periods ofsecond-order homogeneity for each moment in time. To overcomethe high dimensionality of the problem we transform the multivariateseries into a set of univariate processes. We discuss thoroughlythe implementation of the adaptive technique. Theoretical andMonte Carlo results are given. We provide two applications ofthe new method. For a bivariate exchange rate series we comparethe multivariate GARCH approach with our method and find thelatter to be more in line with the underlying assumption ofindependently distributed innovations. Analyzing a 23-dimensionalvector of asset returns we underscore the case for adaptivemodeling in high-dimensional systems. 相似文献
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Estimating the Size of a Criminal Population from Police Records Using the Truncated Poisson Regression Model 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Peter G.M. van der Heijden Maarten Cruyff Hans C. van Houwelingen 《Statistica Neerlandica》2003,57(3):289-304
The truncated Poisson regression model is used to arrive at point and interval estimates of the size of two offender populations, i.e. drunk drivers and persons who illegally possess firearms. The dependent capture–recapture variables are constructed from Dutch police records and are counts of individual arrests for both violations. The population size estimates are derived assuming that each count is a realization of a Poisson distribution, and that the Poisson parameters are related to covariates through the truncated Poisson regression model. These assumptions are discussed in detail, and the tenability of the second assumption is assessed by evaluating the marginal residuals and performing tests on overdispersion. For the firearms example, the second assumption seems to hold well, but for the drunk drivers example there is some overdispersion. It is concluded that the method is useful, provided it is used with care. 相似文献
6.
Chi-Yo Huang Author Vitae Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2008,75(1):12-31
Product life cycle (PLC) prediction plays a crucial role in strategic planning and policy definition for high-technology products. Forecast methodologies which can predict PLCs accurately can help to achieve successful strategic decision-making, forecasting, and foresight activities in high-technology firms, research institutes, governments, and universities. Over the past few decades, even though analytic framework strategies have been proposed for production, marketing, R&D (research and development), and finance, aiming at each stage of PLCs, forecast methodologies with which to predict PLCs are few. The purpose of this research is to develop a novel forecast methodology to allow for predictions of product life time (PLT) and the annual shipment of products during the entire PLC of multiple generation products. A novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, the product life-time of the specific generation to be analyzed will be predicted by the fuzzy piecewise regression line that is derived based upon the product life-time of earlier generations. In the second stage of the forecast methodology, the annual shipment of products of the specified generation will be predicted by deriving annual fuzzy regression lines for each generation, based upon the historical data on the earlier generations' products. An empirical study predicting the life-time and the annual shipment of the 16 Mb (Mega bit) DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) PLC is illustrated to validate the analytical process. The results demonstrate that two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis can predict multiple generation PLT and PLC precisely, thereby serving as a foundation for future strategic planning, policy definitions and foresights. 相似文献
7.
H. P. Lopuhaä 《Statistica Neerlandica》1997,51(2):220-237
By means of a straightforward application of empirical process theory, we show that S-estimators of multivariate location and covariance are asymptotically equivalent to a sum of independent vector and matrix valued random elements respectively. This provides an alternative proof of asymptotic normality of S-estimators and clearly explains the limiting covariance structure. It also leads to a relatively simple proof of asymptotic normality of the length of the shortest α-fraction. 相似文献
8.
We propose a new bivariate distribution following a GLM form i.e., natural exponential family given the constantly correlated covariance matrix. The proposed distribution can represent an independent bivariate gamma distribution as a special case. In order to derive the distribution we utilize an integrating factor method to satisfy the integrability condition of the quasi-score function. The derived distribution becomes a mixture of discrete and absolute continuous distributions. The proposal of our new bivariate distribution will make it possible to develop some bivariate generalized linear models. Further the discrete correlated bivariate distribution will also arise from an independent bivariate Poisson mass function by compounding our proposed distribution (Iwasaki and Tsubaki, 2002).Received March 2003 相似文献
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运用混沌理论对我国股票市场进行了实证研究 ,结果显示我国股票市场是一个低自由度的混沌系统 ,具有自相似的非线性结构 ,并且这种非线性结构可以用 GARCH( 1 ,1 )模型来拟合。 相似文献