Covariance breakdowns and connectedness of crude oil futures markets with non-synchronous data

ABSTRACT

This article identifies the breakdowns in the covariance of three benchmark crude oil futures markets (WTI, Brent and Dubai) and investigates the changes of market connectedness across the breakdown periods. As the crude oil futures are traded in different regions, this article eliminates the non-synchronous trading data by employing the Vector Moving Average structure and the Bayesian data augmentation approach, which keeps the integrity of original data without changing its properties. The results show that there are significant breaks in the covariance structure of crude oil futures markets. The breakdown periods are consistent with the periods when the market volatilities are at high level and the returns are volatile. The changes of market connectedness are independent of the covariance states, which supports the globalization hypothesis for the crude oil market. The results also suggest that there is more information flow out of the WTI than to the WTI during the sample period, particularly during the breakdown periods in 2008–2009.     

Is Volatility the Best Predictor of Market Crashes?

The objective of this paper is to determine the best predictor of equity market crashes by focusing particularly on volatility and market liquidity. In finance, volatility has traditionally been regarded as the best measure of market risk. However, this paper shows that the forecast value of market liquidity, in particular our modified calculated market depth, predicts equity market crashes much more accurately than does the forecast values of EGARCH or Implied Volatility.     

A Dynamic Analysis of Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Terminations

This paper provides a side-by-side comparison of loan-level statistical models for fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgages. Multinomial logit models for quarterly conditional probabilities of default and prepayment are estimated. We find that the estimated impacts of embedded option values for prepayment and default are generally quite similar across both FRM and ARM loans, providing additional empirical support for the basic predictions of the options theory. We also find that differences in estimates of conditional probabilities of prepayment and default associated with mortgage age, origination period, original LTV, and relative loan size, indicate the continued significance of these other economic and demographic factors for empirical models of mortgage terminations.     

Export marketing,interfunctional interactions,and performance consequences

Firms with export operations have internal environments that are often geared toward serving the home market. As a result, export marketing and other business functions compete for resources, which thus increases the likelihood of conflict between them. Using survey responses from more than 700 exporting firms, the authors test a model of the antecedents and consequences of two important interaction variables: exporting’s interfunctional connectedness and conflict. The model explains 52 percent and 49 percent of variance in exporting connectedness and conflict, respectively. The authors identify the key drivers of successful interactions as follows: management commitment, organizational training and reward systems, relative functional identification, centralization, and export employee job satisfaction and commitment. The authors also demonstrate that connectedness is most critical for export success when export markets are in a state of turbulence, whereas conflict is most detrimental when the firm’s export environment is stable. John W. Cadogan (j.w.cadogan@lboro.ac.uk), Ph.D., is a professor of marketing in the Business School at Loughborough University, United Kingdom. His primary areas of research interest are international marketing, marketing strategy, and sales management. He has published on these issues in theJournal of International Business Studies, theInternational Journal of Research in Marketing, theJournal of Business Research, Industrial Marketing Management, theEuropean Journal of Marketing, theInternational Marketing Review, theJournal of Marketing Management, theJournal of Strategic Marketing, and other academic journals. He received his degree from the University of Wales (United Kingdom). Sanna Sundqvist (sanna.sundqvist@lut.fi), Ph.D., is a professor in international marketing in the Department of Business Administration at the Lappeenranta University of Technology (Finland). Her research interests deal with the international diffusion of innovations, market orientation (especially in an international context), and consumers’ adoption behavior. She has published in theJournal of Business Research, theInternational Journal of Research in Marketing, theEuropean Journal of Marketing, theCanadian Journal of Administrative Sciences, and theAustralasian Marketing Journal. She received her degree from the Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland. Risto T. Saiminen (risto.salminen@lut.fi), Ph.D., is a professor of industrial engineering and management, especially marketing, in the Department of Industrial Engineering and Management at Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland. His primary areas of research interest are customer relationships and networks in business marketing, pedagogy in industrial engineering and management, and international marketing. He has published on these issues in theJournal of Business and Industrial Marketing, theJournal of Marketing Management, theEuropean Journal of Engineering Education, theInternational Journal of Research in Marketing, theEuropean Journal of Marketing, and theAustralasian Marketing Journal. He received his degree from Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland. Kaisu Puumalainen (kaisu.puumalainen@lut.fi), Ph.D., is a professor in technology research in the Department of Business Administration at Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland. Her primary areas of research interest are innovation, international marketing, and small businesses. She has published on these issues in theInternational Journal of Research in Marketing, theJournal of Business Research, theEuropean Journal of Marketing, R&D Management, theCanadian Journal of Administrative Sciences, theJournal of International Entrepreneurship, theAustralasian Marketing Journal, and theInternational Journal of Production Economics. She received her degree from the Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland.     

一类变质性物品的最优生产-库存策略

讨论了需求是时间的连续函数、允许缺货且缺货完全回补、变质率为常数、补货率有限的变质性物品在有限计划期内的生产-库存策略。同时证明了最优生产-库存策略的存在和唯一性,并给出了求最优策略的算法和算例。     

Why are there time-varying comovements in the European stock market?

This paper analyzes the dynamics of pair comovements between different domestic European stock market returns (Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland and the United Kingdom) seeking to check whether there is a unique source of risk driving those dynamics. Once it is shown that the comovements are time-varying, the question is to find whether a global index such as the Euro Stoxx can be considered the main source of risk. To that end we estimate and test for time-varying global pair covariances and for time-varying remaining pair covariances once the effect of the Euro Stoxx is removed. The empirical results are obtained considering locally stationary variables, a family that includes variables with first and second time-varying moments. Under that framework time-varying means and covariances can be estimated using a spline-based procedure and Wald-type statistics can be computed to test for time-variations. A simulation study shows that the role of the mean estimation part is crucial to the good performance of the tests for second moments. The empirical results evidence that all global pair covariances for the European countries analyzed are time-varying, but also that the Euro Stoxx can be considered as the driving source of risk for these time-varying dynamics. This conclusion is very useful for modeling purpose and financial strategies. Finally, we repeat the analysis considering the Nasdaq as an alternative global index and find that it explains only a small part of the dynamics in the European pair comovements.     

The Effects of Oil Price on the Korean Economy: A Global VAR Approach

This article empirically explores the effects of oil price on the Korean economy using a Global VAR model. First, we evaluate the average connectedness of oil price with the Korean domestic variables over the precrisis period. We then investigate the time-varying contribution of oil price to the Korean financial and real sectors during and after the global financial crisis through recursive estimation. It is found that the contribution of oil price becomes very large in the case of real exports, equity prices, and real output, but plays a much less prevalent role in the remaining cases. In the meantime, the time-varying contribution of oil price to the Korean economy has not changed during and after the global financial crisis. Interestingly, we find that the Korean economy is affected mostly by overseas financial conditions in the short-term but it becomes more susceptible to oil price fluctuations in the long run, suggesting that Korea’s reliance on energy imports leaves the economy exposed to volatility in energy prices.     

Sovereign Risk Contagion in East Asia: A Mixture of Time-Varying Copulas Approach

This study analyzes sovereign risk contagion between four East Asian economies (China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea) and its structural changes through the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the European Debt Crisis (EDC) by applying the mixture of time-varying copulas to those economies’ credit default swap (CDS) spreads.

This article first finds a strong contagion from the US and PIIGS economies to the East Asian sovereign CDS markets and intraregional contagion within the East Asian markets. Second, the impact of contagion is different according to whether it is measured by the linear (Gaussian) or the upper tail dependence. Third, Japan plays an important role in increasing the linear dependence whereas China and Korea are crucial in terms of the upper tail dependence. Lastly, the GFC has structurally increased the linear dependence but not the upper tail dependence between the East Asian sovereign CDS markets.     

Assessing time-varying stock market integration in Economic and Monetary Union for normal and crisis periods

In this paper, we examine the stock market integration process amongst 17 Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries from January 2002 to June 2013 over a normal period as well as for the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and Eurozone Debt Crisis (EDC) periods. We classify the economies in three groups (A, B and C) based on their GDP to examine whether the economic size influences financial integration. Seven indicators are used for the purpose, namely, beta convergence, sigma convergence, variance ratio, asymmetric DCC, dynamic cointegration, market synchronisation measure and common components approach. The results suggest that large-sized EMU economies (termed as Group A) exhibit strong stock market integration. Moderate integration is observed for middle-sized EMU economies with old membership (termed as Group B). Small-sized economies (termed as Group C) economies seemed to be least integrated within the EMU stock market system. The findings further suggest presence of contagion effects as one moves from normal to crisis periods, which are specifically stronger for more integrated economies of Group A. We recommend institutional, regulatory and other policy reforms for Group B and especially Group C to achieve higher level of integration.     

The influence of the DinEX service quality dimensions on casual-dining restaurant customers’ satisfaction and behavioral intentions

The following empirical study examines the effects of specific service quality dimensions from the DinEX model on customers’ satisfaction and behavioral intentions. The originality of DinEX over other restaurant service quality instruments is primarily its focus on dimensions such as social connectedness and homophily, which represent social constructs that portray an internal sense of belonging and the tendency for people to affiliate with similar others. A self-administered questionnaire was distributed in an independent casual-dining restaurant located in the southeastern United States and a sample of 209 respondents was obtained. Results show that food healthfulness and food quality have an influence on customers’ satisfaction, which in turn affects their behavioral intentions. The implications for practitioners are discussed in detail.