Inflation dynamics in Kazakhstan1

In January 1992, Kazakhstan initiated a reform programme to move towards market-determined prices. The price liberalization process was characterized by large relative price shifts and an increase in the overall price level towards those observed in market economies. The paper shows how the piecemeal manner in which prices were liberalized resulted in strong relative price variability over a prolonged period of time, against a background of high inflation. Convergence towards international relative and absolute price levels has progressed but is not complete, with prices for energy and services in particular still below market economy levels.     

Stochastic Technology, Risk Preferences, and Adoption of Site-Specific Technologies

A model of farmer decision making is developed to determine the extent to which uncertainties about soil fertility and weather affect the value of site-specific technologies (SSTs) using jointly estimated risk and technology parameters. Uncertainty can lead risk-averse farmers to apply more fertilizers and generate more pollution than in the certainty case. Ignoring uncertainty and risk aversion would overestimate the economic and environmental benefits of SSTs and underestimate the subsidy required to induce adoption. Accounting for uncertainties and risk preferences might explain the low observed adoption rates of SSTs. Improving the accuracy of SSTs would increase the incentives for adoption.     

保定市经济区域差异及区域协调发展研究

本文运用统计学定量分析方法中的变差系数（CV）、标准差（S）和综合差异指标（TZ），分析从1965－1999年间，保定市所属各县市经济区域差异的现状和变化状况，指出了90年代经济差异不断扩大的变化趋势，在分析了形成原因后，进而对保定市区域经济发展战略提出了下列建议：优先中轴、带动西部战略；环京津外向型战略；发达县产业结构升级，县域特色经济集聚；构筑京津保经济联合体，形成纵向分工体系；加速城市化；区域倾斜与补偿相结合，建立预警机制等。     

Assessing Variability of Complex Descriptive Statistics in Monte Carlo Studies Using Resampling Methods

Good statistical practice dictates that summaries in Monte Carlo studies should always be accompanied by standard errors. Those standard errors are easy to provide for summaries that are sample means over the replications of the Monte Carlo output: for example, bias estimates, power estimates for tests and mean squared error estimates. But often more complex summaries are of interest: medians (often displayed in boxplots), sample variances, ratios of sample variances and non‐normality measures such as skewness and kurtosis. In principle, standard errors for most of these latter summaries may be derived from the Delta Method, but that extra step is often a barrier for standard errors to be provided. Here, we highlight the simplicity of using the jackknife and bootstrap to compute these standard errors, even when the summaries are somewhat complicated. © 2014 The Authors. International Statistical Review © 2014 International Statistical Institute     

Temporal and spatial variability of agricultural land loss in relation to policy and accessibility in a low hilly region of southeast China

The temporal and spatial patterns in land use change in a low hilly region in southeast of China was analyzed from maps of converted agricultural land for 1999–2006. The factors driving farm land conversion was analyzed using logistic regression models. The amount of agricultural land loss varied temporally, and the spatial distribution of converted agricultural land patches decreased from low to high altitudes in the study area. Analysis using logistic regression models showed that good accessibility sped up the conversion of agricultural land to other uses, the elevation of a parcel lowered the risk of conversion, and agricultural land conversions are highly correlated with its adjacent or neighboring parcels’ land use, with the probability of being converted decreasing as the distance to nearest construction land increases. In addition, land use policy, especially the land use regulation policy issued by the central government decreased the agricultural land loss, and the more stringent regulation on cultivated land conversion lowered the possibility of conversion from cultivated land to other use.     

国外情绪劳动策略最新研究进展评述

情绪劳动策略是指员工为满足组织的情绪表达规则而使用的调节情绪表达的方法。文章通过梳理情绪劳动策略的最新研究成果,分析了情绪劳动策略的概念内涵与结构维度,重点从情绪劳动策略的影响因素与影响效果两个方面对现有研究进行了评述,进而探讨了情绪劳动策略变化性及其影响结果,最后指出以往研究不足及未来研究方向。     

Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia

Extreme interannual variability of precipitation within Ethiopia is not uncommon, inducing droughts or floods and often creating serious repercussions on agricultural and nonagricultural commodities. A dynamic climate module is integrated into an economy‐wide model containing a detailed zonal level agricultural structure. This coupled climate‐economic model is used to evaluate the effects of climate variability on prospective irrigation and infrastructure investment strategies, and the ensuing country‐wide economy. The linkages between the dynamic climate module and the economic model are created by the introduction of a climate‐yield factor (CYF), defined at the crop level and varied across Ethiopian zones. Nine sets of variable climate (VC) data are processed by the coupled model, generating stochastic wet and dry shocks, producing an ensemble of potential economic prediction indicators. Analysis of gross domestic product and poverty rate reveal a significant overestimation of the country's future welfare under all investment strategies when climate variability is ignored. The coupled model ensemble is further utilized for risk assessment to guide Ethiopian policy and planning.     

State‐contingent analysis of farmers’ response to weather variability: irrigated dairy farming in the Murray Valley,Australia

The agricultural sector is commonly regarded as one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Current understanding of the impact of climate change on this sector relies on the underlying assumptions about farmers’ possible responses to weather variability, including changes in crop choice, input combinations and land management practices. Many previous analyses rely on the implicit (and restrictive) assumption that farmers operate under a fixed technology set across different states of nature. This assumption, represented through stochastic production or profit functions, is commonly made but seldom tested and may understate farmers’ responses to climate change if state‐contingent production technologies are, in reality, more flexible. The potential for farmers to adapt production technologies in response to unforeseen events is at the core of the state‐contingent approach. Advanced in Chambers and Quiggin (2000), the theory contends that producers can manage uncertainty through the allocation of productive inputs to different states of nature. In this article, we test the assumption that farmers’ observed behaviour is consistent with the state‐contingent production theory using farm‐level data from Australia. More precisely, we estimate the milk production technology for a sample of irrigated dairy farms from the southern Murray–Darling Basin over the period from 2006–2007 to 2009–2010.     

Occupational diversification as an adaptation to rainfall variability in rural India

Occupational diversification among household members in rural India is investigated as an adaptation strategy against the risks arising from the variability of local rainfall. Nationally representative household‐level survey data are combined with the coefficient of variation of rainfall constructed based on historical rainfall data at the district level. The analysis finds that high rainfall variability has significant negative effects on the agricultural specialization of within‐household occupational choices. This result is reinforced by the finding that improved access to irrigation, education, credit, roads, and postal services, is associated with a lower occupational diversification within families and a greater specialization of household members in agricultural‐related employment.     

城市扩张与集约农业背景下浅层地下水重金属污染特征空间分析

地下水是城乡结合部和农村地区的重要饮用水源之一,城市的扩张和农业集约经营对地下水的影响日益明显。本文以典型区—沈阳沈北新区为例,以地下水重金属为评价指标,采用经典统计和地统计的方法,分析城乡交错地区地下水污染程度和空间分异性特征,旨在为类似地区土地利用规划和地下水环境管理提供科学依据。结果显示:Fe、Mn超标率较高,分布范围较广;Cd、Hg分布集中,受城镇化的影响较为明显;Pb与集中养殖产业分布关系密切;As的分布与当地化工企业有关;Fe、Mn空间变异性强,空间异质性主要受自然条件等结构性因素控制;Cd、Pb、Hg空间变异性中等,As空间变异性弱,Cd、Pb、Hg、As这四种元素空间异质性的形成主要受人为活动等随机因素的影响;初步发现Fe和Mn,Mn和As有相似的来源。