A Bayesian analysis of a variance decomposition for stock returns

We apply Bayesian methods to study a common vector autoregression (VAR)-based approach for decomposing the variance of excess stock returns into components reflecting news about future excess stock returns, future real interest rates, and future dividends. We develop a new prior elicitation strategy, which involves expressing beliefs about the components of the variance decomposition. Previous Bayesian work elicited priors from the difficult-to-interpret parameters of the VAR. With a commonly used data set, we find that the posterior standard deviations for the variance decomposition based on these previously used priors, including “non-informative” limiting cases, are much larger than classical standard errors based on asymptotic approximations. Therefore, the non-informative researcher remains relatively uninformed about the variance decomposition after observing the data. We show the large posterior standard deviations arise because the “non-informative” prior is implicitly very informative in a highly undesirable way. However, reasonably informative priors using our elicitation method allow for much more precise inference about components of the variance decomposition.     

休闲经济与自由本质

随着人们自己支配的时间和收入的增加,休闲将成为生活中的一个重要组成部分.而休闲经济作为日益火爆的经济现象也越来越受到人们的关注.分析和研究与此有关的种种问题,特别是与人的本质及生存条件的种种联系是本文的主旨.     

论我国人力资本的现状及投资对策

本文从阐述知识经济时代人力资本对经济增长的重要性入手，结合我国人力资本的现状，分析其存在的问题与不足，进而提出相应的建设性投资建议，以充分发挥人力资本对经济增长的直接动力作用。     

新形势下如何加强与改进学生思想政治工作

新形势下,高校学生工作环境发生了巨大的变化,使学生工作面临新的挑战。新时期如何加强与改进高校学生思想政治工作已成为学校工作的当务之急。因此,研究加强与改进高校学生思想政治工作应当从分析学生工作面临的环境变化着手,更新教育观念,确立“以人为本”的思想观念,搞好校园文化建设,坚持与时俱进,开拓创新。     

期转现是大宗商品期货交割的有效形式

期转现是当今世界商品期货交易中通行的一种大宗商品期货交割方式,是期货交易方式与现货交易方式最有效率的结合,是典型的非标准期货交割方式.本文着重论述了期转现的积极效应和实现条件.     

正确理解马克思劳动价值论的约束条件

文章从“问题域”、“概念”和“假设”三个层面分析了马克思劳动价值理论的约束条件,提出商品的价值与劳动力的价值的关系问题是马克思劳动价值论的深层结构,对于准确全面理解马克思劳动价值论具有指导意义。     

M公司外部环境和优劣势研究

M公司所处的外部宏观环境、铝型材行业竞争态势及公司自身内部条件表明,M公司存在诸多威胁和有利条件,企业内部也具有自身的优劣势.这表明M公司只有进行品牌创建,实施品牌策略,才能在激烈的市场竞争中立于不败之地.     

Employee Rights, Employee Responsibilities and Knowledge Sharing in Intelligent Organization

Much is currently being written about the need to encourage employees to share knowledge in order for companies to maintain a role as an intelligent organization in a technologically sophisticated environment. However, there is little written of the relationship between employee rights to satisfactory employment conditions, employee responsibilities in decision-making, and employee willingness to share their knowledge collaboratively. This paper seeks to redress this gap by discussing the importance of the relationship between employee rights and responsibilities and employee willingness to share knowledge. The reaction of a group of employees (academics) employed in an Intelligent Organization (university) to a reduction in their rights and responsibilities is discussed in order to design a framework of employee rights and responsibilities required for knowledge sharing in intelligent organizations.     

The British low-wage sector and the employment prospects of the unemployed

Are low wages a way for the unemployed to switch to higher-paying jobs? Using data from the British Household Panel Survey, the labour market dynamics of unemployed, low-paid and higher-paid employed men are analysed. Moreover, the respective (un)employment duration and occupational skill level are accounted for. Results show that in general low wages significantly reduce the risk of future unemployment and increase the chances of ascending the salary ladder, especially in the case of long-term unemployment (>360 days). Furthermore, the occupational skill level has a substantial influence on the upward mobility of low-paid jobs: individuals working in the initial period in a low-paid and higher-skilled occupation have on average an 11 percentage points higher probability of entering higher pay compared to when working in a low-paid and low-skilled occupation.     

云南长防林体系建设中几个问题的探讨

本文就云南省长防林体系建设中存在的认识问题,指导思想、政策、资金投入及有关技术问题,进行分析。提出相应的对策和意见。