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1.
Aid, policy and growth in post-conflict societies 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Paul Collier 《European Economic Review》2004,48(5):1125-1145
Countries emerging from civil war attract both aid and policy advice. This paper provides the first systematic empirical analysis of aid and policy reform in the post-conflict growth process. It is based on a comprehensive data set of large civil wars, and covers 17 societies that were in their first decade of post-conflict economic recovery. We first investigate whether the absorptive capacity for aid is systematically different in post-conflict countries. We find that during the first 3 post-conflict years absorptive capacity is no greater than normal, but that in the rest of the first decade it is approximately double its normal level. Thus, ideally, aid should phase in during the decade. Historically, aid has not, on average, been higher in post-conflict societies, and indeed it has tended to taper out over the course of the decade. We then investigate whether the contribution of policy to growth is systematically different in post-conflict countries, and in particular, whether particular components of policy are differentially important. For this we use the World Bank policy rating database. We find that growth is more sensitive to policy in post-conflict societies. Comparing the efficacy of different policies, we find that social policies are differentially important relative to macroeconomic policies. However, historically, this does not appear to have been how policy reform has been prioritized in post-conflict societies. 相似文献
2.
We examine potential information transfers from companies that announce dividend omissions to their industry rivals. Specifically, we examine the abnormal stock returns and abnormal earnings forecast revisions of rivals after a company makes a dividend‐omission announcement. Our results show negative and significant abnormal stock returns and negative and significant abnormal forecast revisions for rival companies in response to the announcement, and a significant and positive relation between the two. We conclude that a dividend‐omission announcement transmits unfavorable information across the announcing company's industry that affects cash flow expectations and ultimately stock prices. 相似文献
3.
This paper uncovers an increasing proportion of quoted UK companies omitting cash dividends. Using a large panel of quoted UK firms, we estimate panel data probit models for the incidence of dividend omissions and cuts as functions of financial characteristics including cash flow, leverage, investment opportunities, investment and company size. These variables account for most of the increase in omission since 1995. There is relatively little evidence to link this to the major tax reform of 1997 that abolished tax refunds on dividend income payable to tax‐exempt institutions. Significant persistence effects indicate companies are slow to adjust their balance sheets through their dividend. 相似文献
4.
In this paper we consider semiparametric estimation of a generalized correlation coefficient in a generalized bivariate probit model. The generalized correlation coefficient provides a simple summary statistic measuring the relationship between the two binary decision processes in a general framework. Our semiparametric estimation procedure consists of two steps, combining semiparametric estimators for univariate binary choice models with the method of maximum likelihood for the bivariate probit model with nonparametrically generated regressors. The estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. The estimator performs well in our simulation study. 相似文献
5.
This paper studies a link between inflation and economic activity that is built on two hypotheses. First, firms mitigate informational frictions in financial markets by accumulating retained earnings over a period of time. Second, firms allocate earnings among three competing uses - dividends, current investment, and the accumulation of internal funds - and inflation directly distorts this allocation decision as well as the real value of accumulated internal funds. The model predicts that the level of inflation - both unanticipated and expected inflation - as well as the variability of inflation distort firms’ internal financing decisions, increases frictions in financial markets, reduces the level and efficiency of investment, and reduces aggregate output. The marginal effects of inflation are increasing in the inflation rate. 相似文献
6.
Olaf Hübler 《Empirical Economics》1993,18(2):357-380
The theoretical status of the relationship between productivity, wages, and profit sharing (PS) is poor. Only some alternative hypotheses can be formulated. From these explanations six different econometric models are derived. Using data of the German Socio-Economic Panel the models are estimated and tests and indicators are employed to choose the best model. Our investigation speaks in favour of hybrid simultaneous Tobit models where the level of profit sharing is positively correlated with productivity which induces positive wage effects on the one hand. But on the other hand the level of wages is also relevant to the question whether a firm introduces or decides to continuePS and which amount ofPS should be paid.What is obvious is not always true and introspection is a notoriously unreliable guide to empirical magnitudes. Blinder (1990, p.2) 相似文献
7.
Sven Rady 《Finance and Stochastics》1997,1(4):331-344
This paper uses a probabilistic change-of-numeraire technique to compute closed-form prices of European options to exchange
one asset against another when the relative price of the underlying assets follows a diffusion process with natural boundaries
and a quadratic diffusion coefficient. The paper shows in particular how to interpret the option price formula in terms of
exercise probabilities which are calculated under the martingale measures associated with two specific numeraire portfolios.
An application to the pricing of bond options and certain interest rate derivatives illustrates the main results. 相似文献
8.
We survey 309 sample firms exhibiting behavior consistent with a residual dividend policy and their matched counterparts to learn how they set their dividend policies. The findings reveal that the sample firms are more likely than their counterparts to maintain a long-term dividend payout ratio, use long-run earnings forecasts in setting the dividend, and be unconcerned about the cost of raising external funds. Yet, firms behaving as though they follow a residual dividend policy generally do not profess to follow the policy. At best, the sample firms follow a “modified” residual policy in which they carefully manage their payout ratio and dividend trend. Although it may not be an explicit goal of such a dividend policy, consistently low free cash flow typically results. 相似文献
9.
Hao Wang 《Journal of Banking & Finance》2011,35(1):36-50
I develop a contingent claims model to examine the impacts of managerial entrenchment on capital structure and security valuation. The analysis shows that managers’ self-interested leverage choices deviate significantly from the optimal leverages that maximize firm values, partially explaining the suboptimal leverage ratios observed empirically (Graham, 2000). Both the extent and sensitivity of the deviations are affected by firm characteristics, debt features and default solutions. The shareholder-manager conflicts over risk level and cash payout vary dynamically with a firm’s financial health. Managerial entrenchment does not mitigate the agency problems of debt since managers’ discretionary decisions on milking properties or asset substitution could be driven by incentives to increase their own utility. 相似文献
10.
在配电系统中,开关设备是非常关键的部分。它若出现故障,可能引发大面积停电事故,会增加运行成本,降低设备的使用功能,而且有损电力公司的社会形象。本文基于现代电力系统运行要求,重点分析了10kV开关设备检修要点,旨在积累更多运行维护的技术经验,在保证设备功能的前提下,降低运行成本,提高电力系统运行的安全性和可靠性。 相似文献