Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks?

Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks? Or do they have the perverse effect of increasing the probability of a devaluation of the currency under attack? Drawing on evidence from a large sample of speculative attacks in developed and developing economies, this paper argues that the answer to both questions is ‘no’. In particular, this paper documents a striking lack of any systematic association whatsoever between interest rates and the outcome of speculative attacks. The lack of clear empirical evidence on the effects of high interest rates during speculative attacks mirrors the theoretical ambiguities on this issue.     

Terrorism activities and long-term annual management forecasts

We study the effects of terrorist attacks on firms’ long-term annual management earnings forecasts bias. We find that the managers of firms located closer to the epicenters of attacks are more likely to issue optimistic long-term annual earnings forecasts relative to the managers of a control group of unaffected firms. The exposure effect is stronger for more severe terrorist events, and firms with more uncertain fundamentals and less geographic diversification. In addition, we document that managers’ forecast optimism intensifies for firms with stronger negative stock market reaction to the terrorist event, for CEOs with higher ability and for companies that are more likely to issue equity or engage in acquisitions following the terrorist event. Overall, our results are consistent with the idea that long-term annual earnings forecasts are used by managers to counterbalance the short-term pessimistic response to terrorist attacks.     

Bancarization and violent attacks from guerrilla and other illegal groups in Colombia

Income shocks affect violence through the opportunity cost and rapacity effects. Existing studies focus on the impact of transitory shocks, especially commodity price innovations. This paper builds on this literature and studies the causal effect of permanent income shocks on armed conflict in Colombia. Using a rich dataset reporting all guerrilla and other armed groups' attacks by municipality between 2009 and 2014 and information on the provision of banking services, it shows that increasing bancarization leads to reductions in violence. These results have important implications for public policy in countries with a long history of violence. They suggest that promoting financial inclusion is useful for reducing conflict.     

Do terror attacks affect the dollar-pound exchange rate? A nonparametric causality-in-quantiles analysis

While much significant research has been done to study the effects of terror attacks on stock markets, less is known about the response of exchange rates to terror attacks. We suggest a non-parametric causality-in-quantiles test to study whether (relative) terror attacks affect exchange-rate returns and volatility. Using data on the dollar-pound exchange rate to illustrate the test, we show that terror attacks mainly affect the lower and upper quantiles of the conditional distribution of exchange-rate returns, while misspecified (due to nonlinearity and structural breaks) linear Granger causality test show no evidence of predictability. Terror attacks also affect almost all quantiles of the conditional distribution of exchange-rate volatility (except the extreme upper-end), with the significance of the effect being particularly strong for the lower quantiles. The importance of terror attacks is shown to hold also under an alternative measure of volatility and for an important emerging-market exchange rate as well.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

The new exchange rate policy in the Asian emerging economies – goodbye trouble,hello comfort?

In this paper, we discuss new aspects of exchange rate policy that can be observed in the Asian emerging economies. In the first place, we show the alternative regimes they may choose and their respective pros and cons. Secondly, we concentrate on the recent strategy of systematic undervaluation of one's currency – figuring prominently among ‘big’ Asian players such as China and India – and the most likely implications of such a strategy for domestic allocation, distribution and stabilization goals. With the background of Germany's experiences in 1969, almost on the eve of the Bretton Woods' system collapse, we model a speculative attack on an undervalued currency in the vein of the Flood–Garber seminal paper from 1984. Now, however, the country in concern (just like India and China) possesses strong rather than weak fundamentals. The continuous accumulation of international reserves, in addition, leads to the question of an ‘optimal management’ of foreign exchange reserves in Asian emerging economies with regard to size and composition. We finally propose a sequence of reforms/policies that should be implemented in those Asian emerging economies on their still long journey to a regime featured by autonomous monetary policy, flexible exchange rate and capital mobility. A brief summary and an outlook for future research close the paper.     

WIN7平台ARP网络攻防

为了确认Windows7平台下ARP欺骗攻击的防御能力,利用arpfree命令行工具,模拟三种不同的ARP网络攻击,分析攻击结果及对Windows7的性能影响,并检测ARP防火墙在面对以上攻击时的防御能力。未安装防火墙的Windows7可以防御ARPRequest攻击,但三种攻击都会显著的占用带宽资源。Windows7在防火墙的支持下,可以防御三种攻击,只能发现并阻断ARPRequest攻击,两种攻击仍然会占用大量用户的带宽与CPU资源。     

图书馆局域网ARP病毒的攻击原理与安全防范

图书馆网络现状随着图书馆数字化的发展,图书馆的管理也从原始的纸介的资料保存转向资料的网络版、电子版转化,原始的书籍、期刊等资料借阅模式也逐渐被电子版的原文请求、网络借阅方式替代,信息的瞬息万变、图书资料管理的数据化,导致图书馆的数字化、网络化发展,同时就要保证图书网络管理的安全及图书馆局域网稳定运行.ARP病毒是近年来局域网各种外部攻击比较频繁,对网络性能影响也比较大的一种病毒,针对目前该病毒在局域网内的频繁发作,本文对ARP协议及ARP欺骗攻击原理进行了分析,讨论了ARP欺骗行为的判定,并提出了对ARP欺骗攻击的解决方案.     

Speculative attacks to currency target zones: A market microstructure approach

This paper develops a simple optimization model to characterize the behaviour of market participants during currency attacks and tests it empirically. Specifically, we test for the determinants of the timing, magnitude and chance of success of an attack. The empirical part is carried out using Mexican data, as this market provides us with an appropriate target zone framework and with a very rich dataset. We find empirical support for a set of microeconomic determinants which include: daily order flow, inventory management, intra-day price volatility, and the forward intervention-price differential. Finally, we test for the role of central bank reserves in speculative attack dynamics.     

Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks? New evidence

Kraay [Kraay, A., 2003. Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks? Journal of International Economics 59, 297-321.] documents the lack of any systematic association between monetary policy and the outcome of a speculative attack. This paper revisits Kraay's work and modifies it by introducing an improved measure of monetary policy and an additional country-specific fundamental, short-term corporate debt, to capture balance sheet vulnerabilities emphasized by the recent currency crises literature. The results show that for low levels of short-term corporate debt, raising interest rates lowers the probability of a successful attack. This effect decreases and eventually reverses for higher levels of debt. These findings contrast earlier empirical evidence and imply a fundamental reconsideration of the role of monetary policy during currency crises.