SUPPLY CHAIN INFORMATION SHARING IN A VENDOR MANAGED INVENTORY PARTNERSHIP

Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) involves the vendor making the replenishment decision for products supplied to a customer based on various inventory and supply chain policies. Information sharing between supply chain members is required in VMI. Sometimes VMI decisions are delayed and/or the information shared is inaccurate. This research examines the effects of information delay and accuracy, and the sharing of sales and forecast information in a VMI environment facing stationary and nonstationary demand. The simulation experiments show the impact of information delay, information inaccuracy, and information sharing on a variety of performance measures, including inventory levels and fill rates.     

信用风险水平与宏观经济变量的实证研究——基于中国、美国、日本部分银行的比较分析

基于1999～2007年中国、美国和日本部分银行的不良贷款率数据,本文对影响银行信用风险的宏观经济因素进行了实证研究和比较分析。结果表明:(1)中国的银行信用风险水平与失业率呈现显著的负相关关系;(2)表面上美国的银行信用风险水平极低,而且不受宏观经济变量波动的影响,但是实际上其风险被金融衍生工具隐藏并积累起来;(3)日本的银行信用风险水平与CPI呈现显著的负相关关系。最后本文提出了几点建议。     

中国金融发展与产业结构升级关系的实证研究

本文在国内外研究成果的基础上,针对中国的金融发展与产业结构升级的关系问题,系统分析金融发展与产业结构转变的内在联系,采用中国1978～2006年反映金融发展和产业结构升级的指标数据,利用非平稳时间序列分析方法进行定量描述。结果表明,产业结构升级指标和金融发展指标相互之间存在着长期均衡关系,金融相关率和金融市场化率对非农产业产值比重的提高有正向促进作用,并且金融相关率对产业结构升级的影响要强于金融相关率指标。中国产业结构的变化具有自身的惯性,中国的产业结构升级与金融发展的长短期关系是不一致的。产业结构升级和金融市场化比率之间存在双向的因果关系,而产业结构升级与金融相关比率以及金融相关比率和金融市场化比率之间只有单向的因果关系。     

基于房价收入比的居民住房支付能力研究——以上海中等收入居民为例

面对高涨的房价,一些城市的中等收入居民既无足够的支付能力也不符合申请经济适用房的条件。本文以上海为例,通过否定国际惯用房价收入比4～6的合理取值范围,分析居民的实际购买力来确定房价收入比取值范围。同时对现行房价收入比指标进行修正和改进,以反映中等收入城市居民真实的住房支付能力现状。     

人口老龄化必然导致资本替代劳动吗

经济学理论认为,人口老龄化会导致劳动力成本上升,从而改变企业的要素结构、通过资本替代劳动的方式应对,但不同类型的企业对老龄化做出的反应可能存在差异,需要进行深入分析。文章利用中国工业企业数据对上述问题进行了研究,实证结果显示：整体来看,人口老龄化显著提高了企业的资本劳动比,但资本劳动比的上升并不一定表现为资本对劳动的替代。在规模较大、融资约束较轻的企业,老龄化促使其用固定资产投资替代了劳动,但在规模较小和融资约束程度较为严重的企业,人口老龄化并没有显著提高其固定资产投资,只是缩小了其劳动力雇佣规模,说明企业规模和融资约束是影响企业要素结构升级的重要因素。此外,文章还发现人口老龄化主要促使企业利用资本替代低技能劳动力,而人口老龄化的资本替代劳动效应在资本密集型、生产率水平较高和非出口企业中更为显著。文章从微观企业投资视角拓展了人口老龄化的经济效应的研究范畴,并通过规模效应和融资约束角度分析了制约工业企业提高智能化生产程度的因素,从而对传统的见解提供了有益的补充。文章的研究结论能够为政府制定积极应对人口老龄化和助力企业要素结构升级的相关政策提供经验证据的支持。     

资本充足率、存款准备金率与货币政策银行信贷传导——基于银行业市场结构的分析

基于垄断竞争的银行业市场结构,研究银行在受到资本充足率和存款准备金率双重约束条件下,在面对货币政策冲击的情况下所做出的最优信贷决策行为。通过构造贷款市场总体均衡模型,得出以下结论:当银行满足资本充足率和存款准备金率要求时,货币政策的银行信贷传导渠道表现出有效性;而当贷款市场中的银行不能满足资本充足率或存款准备金率要求时,货币政策的银行信贷传导渠道则表现出无效性。     

Auditor Expertise and the Estimation of Dollar Error in Accounts

A major task that auditors undertake in formulating their audit opinion is to estimate the dollar error that might exist in accounts in light of their evaluation of internal control strengths and weaknesses. The research that has been undertaken to evaluate the quality of auditor performance on this task, however, has produced mixed results. The current study tries to overcome some theoretical limitations and measurement limitations that have undermined prior studies. Forty practising auditors rated their abilities on fourteen characteristics derived from a model of expertise. They then undertook an experiment where they judged the extent of dollar error that might exist in the inventories of a manufacturing company. They based their judgments on working papers provided to them that contained, among other information, an evaluation of the company's internal control system. An estimate of the 'true' dollar error in the inventories was calculated using a program that simulated the company's internal control and accounting system. This estimate was then used to calculate the accuracy of the auditors' judgments. Their ratings on the expertise characteristics were not related to their judgment accuracy. Their ratings were related, however, to their confidence in their judgment accuracy. Auditors who considered themselves more expert at the task were more confident in their judgment accuracy but they were, in fact, no more accurate than auditors who considered themselves to be less expert at the task.     

我国证券投资基金业绩的持续性研究

以上海证券交易所上市的10只同质的基金为样本,分三个阶段对基金业绩的持续性进行了实证分析,结果表明我国证券投资基金的业绩并不具有持续性.     

研发费用加计扣除政策改革促进了民营企业创新吗——基于2018年政策调整的实证研究

民营企业是研发费用加计扣除政策的主要受益群体。文章实证检验了2018年研发费用加计扣除政策改革对民营企业创新的激励效应及其异质性。研究结果表明,提升政策强度对民营企业的创新投入、创新产出数量和创新产出质量均有显著的激励效果。这些效果存在行业、规模、技术类型、生命周期等方面的异质性：在创新投入方面,对非制造业民营企业、非大型民营企业、高新技术民营企业、成熟期民营企业的创新投入激励效果更大;在创新产出方面,对非制造业民营企业、非高新技术民营企业的创新产出激励效果更大。针对激励效应及异质性分析结果,文章建议,将2021年政策的扣除比例适用范围扩大到负面清单之外的全部企业;在适当的时机,可继续提高扣除比例,尤其是对中小企业,以促进民营企业释放更大的创新动能;强化对民营企业高质量创新的导向性,针对不同类型研发项目费用设置不同扣除比例。     

Does the Delphi process lead to increased accuracy in group-based judgmental forecasts or does it simply induce consensus amongst judgmental forecasters?

We investigate the relative impact of internal Delphi process factors - including panelists' degree of confidence, expertise, majority/minority positioning - and an external factor, richness of feedback - on opinion change and subsequent accuracy of judgmental forecasts. We found that panelists who had low confidence in their judgmental forecast and/or who were in a minority were more likely to change their opinion than those who were more confident and/or in a majority. The addition of rationales, or reasons, to the numeric feedback had little impact upon panelists' final forecasts, despite the quality of panelists' rationales being significantly positively correlated with accurate forecasts and thus of potential use to aid forecast improvement over Delphi rounds. Rather, the effect of rationales was similar to that of confidence: to pull panelists towards the majority opinion regardless of its correctness. We conclude that majority opinion is the strongest influence on panelists' opinion change in both the ‘standard’ Delphi, and Delphi-with-reasons. We make some suggestions for improved variants of the Delphi-with-reasons technique that should help reduce majority influence and thereby permit reasoned arguments to exert their proper pull on opinion change, resulting in forecast accuracy improvements over Delphi rounds.