Deep learning for modeling the collection rate for third-party buyers

This study evaluates a wide range of machine learning techniques such as deep learning, boosting, and support vector regression to predict the collection rate of more than 65,000 defaulted consumer credits from the telecommunications sector that were bought by a German third-party company. Weighted performance measures were defined based on the value of exposure at default for comparing collection rate models. The approach proposed in this paper is useful for a third-party company in managing the risk of a portfolio of defaulted credit that it purchases. The main finding is that one of the machine learning models we investigate, the deep learning model, performs significantly better out-of-sample than all other methods that can be used by an acquirer of defaulted credits based on weighted-performance measures. By using unweighted performance measures, deep learning and boosting perform similarly. Moreover, we find that using a training set with a larger proportion of the dataset does not improve prediction accuracy significantly when deep learning is used. The general conclusion is that deep learning is a potentially performance-enhancing tool for credit risk management.     

网络环境下博物馆信息资源的采集策略

博物馆信息资源建设是博物馆信息化建设的重要组成部分。网络环境下的博物馆信息资源建设除了传统的藏品资源建设以外,还包括文献信息资源建设和网络信息资源建设等。针对不同的信息资源类型,采取不同的采集策略。时博物馆藏品档案信息,输入要完整、处理要规范、输出要主动,充分揭示藏品的文化内涵及实现其科技信息价值;对博物馆文献信息资源要拓宽进书渠道,实行采购方式多样化,重视数据库及灰色文献;充分挖掘网络信息资源,开展共建共享,全面提升文献信息保障能力。     

浅谈外文藏书建设与图书利用率

文章从广西图书馆外文藏书情况入手，分析了外文图书利用率低下的原因，提出了提高外文图书利用率的对策。     

Are Fundamentals Priced in the Bond Market?*

To date, the discussion of the Lev and Thiagarajan 1993 fundamentals in the prior literature has been exclusively in the context of the stock market. Our study is the first to examine the value‐relevance of these fundamentals for default risk. By focusing on the market for new bond issues, we examine the value‐relevance of the fundamental score using expected rather than realized returns. Also, by focusing on the bond market we provide a different perspective than that brought by prior studies relying solely on stock prices. We find the fundamentals to be priced in the market for new bond issues as indicators of expected future earnings and to be value‐relevant in enabling the market to discern differences in bond credit quality over and above the published bond ratings.     

2005年国际金融市场回顾与2006年展望

2005年的国际金融市场走势跌宕起伏,股票市场表现不一,债券市场基本上是区间波动走势,外汇市场美元一枝独秀,石油价格冲高回落而黄金的表现也引人注目。决定市场走势的因素是美国经济表现稳健,欧、日经济相形见绌,同时美国利率持续上升。2006年受房地产市场降温的影响,美国经济可能温和放缓,利率很快见顶,将对金融市场产生重大影响,总体而言风险加大。     

Use of Statistics in the Monetary Policy of the Czech National Bank: The Case of a Country in Transition

In the presented text the authors judge the importance of statistics in the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank (CNB) over the course of the economic transformation process, with particular consideration of changing statistical needs and the possibilities and limits of statistical data exploitation in the monetary analyses. The importance of statistics lies on the level of collection and processing of statistical information and on the level of use of statistical methods to analyse data. Since the start of the 1990s the requirements for statistics were significantly influenced by monetary policy. In the period 1990–1997, monetary targeting was the primary influential factor. Since 1998, the monetary policy is influenced by inflation targeting. Statistical priorities switched from monetary data to economy and financial market data. Much progress has been made in the use of statistical methods for analysing data. Statistics available at present cover the CNB's standard monetary-policy requirements and are on par with those in developed countries. Its further development will reflect the standard changes taking place in the more advanced countries.     

基本养老保险筹资权行使主体的确定及其理论依据

基本养老保险筹资权的行使主体的确定问题,应从中央与地方政府财权划分的角度进行分析。我国地方政府行使基本养老保险筹资权存在不合理性,应建立由中央政府统筹的基本养老保险制度。     

企业债券融资的比较优势与实证分析

为稳步推进资本市场改革开放和稳定发展，我国明确了大力发展企业债券市场的目的与总体方案，但市场状况仍不尽如人意。本文在分析西方企业融资理论的基础上，归纳了企业债券融资的相对优势，并结合中国融资市场的现状进行了实证研究，实证结果表明，中国上市公司企业债券融资的成本优势并不显著，但融资“信号”传递作用明显。     

税务征收体制下的社会保险费征管制度建设研究

我国社会保险费征管体制改革正在不断深入。当前,社会保险费征管仍存在制度设计有待完善、法律依据不够清晰的问题。本文基于税收征管视角,对社会保险费征管制度进行了重新审视,在全面梳理了制约社会保险费征管制度完善的限制性因素的基础上,从科学设置社会保险费征管前置程序、全面构建社会保险费征管的保障程序等多个方面,对将社会保险费征管融入税收征管流程的可行性进行了分析和探讨,以期为我国社会保险费征管制度的完善提供参考。     

中国债券市场发展评析

经过多年的艰辛努力，2002年，我国全国统一、多层次、面向各类经济主体的具有中国特色的债券市场框架基本形成，银行间、柜台和交易所三个债券子市场各有侧重、相互连通和互动。本从债券市场机制和框架形成角度，对我国债券市场10余年的发展轨迹进行了全面回顾和分析。在此基础上，对我国债券市场进一步深化发展提出了若干建议。