Political credibility and economic growth in less developed countries

While the mainstream of economic development theory focuses on the efficiency of policy measures, the role of the credibility of these measures is rarely analyzed. In this paper we argue that in less developed countries the problem of establishing the credibility of policy measures is at least as important as the problem of choosing the efficient policy solution. We claim that many of the difficulties less developed countries face can be understood in terms of lack of effective control on the discretionary power of governments, which ultimately leads to policies that are not credible. The private sector anticipates large swings in policies and reacts by withholding its resources. Symptoms of these credibility problems in less developed countries include the size of the informal sector, capital flight, and the reluctance of investors to commit capital. All of these reactions contribute to the slow economic growth in these countries. This paper concludes that establishing strategies for the control of state discretionary power is a crucial precondition for overcoming these problems and generating long term economic growth.     

Full-cost pricing in the classical competitive process: A model of convergence to long-run equilibrium

In the last 10–15 years a lot of attempts has been devoted to study the calssical process of convergence of market prices toward natural prices. The two forces that one has thought could achieve this target were capital mobility, that determines the dynamics of output, and demand-supply forces, that determine the dynamics of prices. In this article a model of classical competition is proposed in which a full-cost pricing mechanism is adopted in the rule of evolution of market prices. An asymptotical stability result of long-run equilibrium is proved for a two-commodity model with and without a final demand.     

The α-stable processes and their relationship with the exponent of self-similarity: Exchange rates of USA Dollar,Canadian Dollar,Euro and Yen

This research work analyzes the yields of the exchange rate parities of the American dollar, Canadian dollar, Euro, and Yen; estimates the basic statistics and the α-stables; carries out the Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Anderson–Darling, and Lilliefors goodness of fit tests; estimates the self-similar exponents and carries out the t and F tests, ruling out that the series of parities are multifractal. It also estimates the confidence intervals of the exchange rate parities and concludes that the estimated α-stable distributions are more efficient than the Gaussian distribution to quantify the risks of the market, and that the series are self-similar. Through the ? index, we can infer the risk of the events, indicating that the parities are anti-persistent and thus have short-term memory, mean reversion, and a negative correlation with the high risk in the short and medium term. The estimation and validation of the α-stable distributions and the self-similar exponent are important in the evaluation and creation of innovative investment instruments through financial engineering, risk administration, and the evaluation of derived products.     

四、六级网考环境下的大学英语教学

四、六级网考是一种基于听力的考试,采用知名英语媒体播出的音频和视频材料,增设了口语测试,以测试学生的综合语言能力为目的,考试过程具有不可逆性。这种考试要求学校在教学硬件上有更大的投入,在教材、教学大纲、课堂教学形式、学生课后练习安排等方面要有所调整,尤其对考生的听力提出了更高的要求。因此,学校必须优化教学配置,开放教学资源;教师必须调整教学内容,创新教学模式;学生则应努力提高自主学习能力,适应网考的新形势。     

Measuring Inflation Expectations Using Interval‐Coded Data*

To quantify qualitative survey data, the Carlson–Parkin method assumes normality, a time‐invariant symmetric indifference interval, and long‐run unbiased expectations. These assumptions are unnecessary for interval‐coded data. In April 2004, the Monthly Consumer Confidence Survey in Japan started to ask households about their price expectations a year ahead in seven categories with partially known boundaries. Thus one can identify up to six parameters including an indifference interval each month. This paper compares normal, skew normal (SN), skew exponential power (SEP), and skew t (St) distributions, and finds that an St distribution fits the data well. The results help us to better understand the dynamics of heterogeneous expectations.     

提高英语单词记忆效率的策略选择

为帮助学生在有限的时间里记忆更多的单词,笔者根据自己多年教学的心得体会,总结、归纳实用有效的四级单词的记忆方法,包括重复循环记忆法、词缀记忆法等,并对具体方法的实施提出了自己的见解。     

Bivariate income distributions for assessing inequality and poverty under dependent samples

As indicators of social welfare, the incidence of inequality and poverty is of ongoing concern to policy makers and researchers alike. Of particular interest are the changes in inequality and poverty over time, which are typically assessed through the estimation of income distributions. From this, income inequality and poverty measures, along with their differences and standard errors, can be derived and compared. With panel data becoming more frequently used to make such comparisons, traditional methods which treat income distributions from different years independently and estimate them on a univariate basis, fail to capture the dependence inherent in a sample taken from a panel study. Consequently, parameter estimates are likely to be less efficient, and the standard errors for between-year differences in various inequality and poverty measures will be incorrect. This paper addresses the issue of sample dependence by suggesting a number of bivariate distributions, with Singh–Maddala or Dagum marginals, for a partially dependent sample of household income for two years. Specifically, the distributions considered are the bivariate Singh–Maddala distribution, proposed by Takahasi (1965), and bivariate distributions belonging to the copula class of multivariate distributions, which are an increasingly popular approach to modelling joint distributions. Each bivariate income distribution is estimated via full information maximum likelihood using data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey for 2001 and 2005. Parameter estimates for each bivariate income distribution are used to obtain values for mean income and modal income, the Gini inequality coefficient and the headcount ratio poverty measure, along with their differences, enabling the assessment of changes in such measures over time. In addition, the standard errors of each summary measure and their differences, which are of particular interest in this analysis, are calculated using the delta method.     

CET-4写作命题规律分析和应试技巧点拨

文中分析了近年来大学英语四级考试中的写作命题规律，有针对性地提出了一些应试技巧和方法。     

Pricing of a structured product on the SX5E when the uncertainty of returns is modeled as a log-stable process

This work presents the participation factor and the valuation of a first-generation structured product with European call options on the Eurostoxx, when the uncertainty of the yields is modeled through log-stable processes. The basic statistics of the index yields are also exposed, the α-stable parameters are estimated, and the valuation of the of the structured models is compared through the log-stable and log-Gaussian models using inputs from the bond markets; concluding that investors obtain higher yields than those of the bond market through both models, and that the differences of the yields depend on the participation factor and on the value of the index at the time of liquidation.     

Consumers’ Appreciation of Regional Certification Labels: A Pan‐European Study

Successful regional products, such as Florida oranges, Idaho potatoes and Parma ham, often have to compete against products passing themselves off as the authentic product using the exact same name. This unfair competition misleads consumers, discourages small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) from marketing products based on their region of origin, and may end up hurting rural economies. To protect consumers, and support SMEs and rural economies, many countries around the world have introduced regulations enabling SMEs to legally protect the names of their regional products. The success of these regulations largely depends on consumers’ appreciation of regional certification labels that inform consumers that the name of the regional product is protected and that it denotes the authentic product. To gain an understanding about consumers’ appreciation of regional certification labels, this paper investigates consumers’ image of these labels and proposes a model that relates this image to consumers’ willingness to buy and pay for protected regional products. The model is tested based on Regulation No. 2081/92 that was introduced by the EEC allowing European SMEs to protect their regional products and market their products with a protected‐designation‐of‐origin (PDO) label. Structural equation modelling results suggest that consumers’ image of regional certification labels consists of a quality warranty dimension and an economic support dimension, which positively relate to consumers’ willingness to buy and pay for the protected regional product. Protecting regional products and marketing them with regional certification labels may be beneficial for SMEs producing and marketing regional products. Policy and managerial implications are discussed.