Exchange rate volatility and its impact on the transaction costs of covered interest rate parity

This paper provides empirical evidence on the linkage between foreign exchange market volatility and daily 90-day covered interest rate parity (CIP) conditions of the three major exchange rates against the US dollar (US$). Markov regime shifting models were utilized to generate time series of volatility regime probabilities and these were used to explain the first and second moments of the daily deviations from and the transaction cost bands around the covered parity conditions. We find a significant positive relationship between the deviations and the regime probabilities, indicating an increasing probability of higher volatility state being associated with rising deviations (both first and second moments) from the parity condition. Similar positive relationship is found for the transaction bands. Rising (falling) probabilities of high (low) volatility regimes increased the first and second moments of the bands. Furthermore, we find a higher volatility state combined with a US$ depreciation is associated with significantly higher volatility in the daily deviations than an appreciation. Also, US$ depreciation is associated with widening transaction bands. This suggests that the level of market uncertainty was higher when the US$ was depreciating.     

Art of the possible or fool's errand? Diffusion of large-scale management innovation

Organizations are continually challenged to increase efficiency and improve performance despite frequent cuts to personnel and budgets. These challenges force organizations to identify, develop, and diffuse various management innovations. Diffusion efforts are often met by resistance, reluctance, or ambivalence, resulting in what many consider to be a fool's errand. While management innovation may not be the forte of large, bureaucratic organizations, we present a case study of a U.S. Air Force maintenance, repair, and overhaul organization that has recently, and successfully, diffused a large-scale management innovation. Results from the case study support the development of a diffusion of innovation framework that identifies important mechanisms associated with the acceptance, routinization, and assimilation of management innovation. The framework informs leaders of the diffusion process, while the recommended actions of relentless leadership, deliberate development of personnel, and enterprise involvement drive diffusion efforts and help leaders achieve desired results in innovation diffusion and associated performance improvement. Overall, we assert that the pursuit of management innovation is not necessarily beyond the art of the possible for business leaders.     

贸易术语解释国际规则的最新发展

本文介绍了《国际贸易术语解释通则》第6个修订本——INCOTERMS 2000(简称《2000年通则》)的结构及其主要的修改内容,并就如何在实际业务中加以运用提出建议。     

论房地产价格规律理论及其功能原理

置业投资系数CIP=(0,4]也是房价收入比,某地房地产均价Hp等于该地CIP乘以该地人平工资Wa。由之证明房价可粗略评估为人平月入三倍,进而可将房价Hp分解成三个Hp/3的组成结构。随着科技生产力发展,土地产出率不断提高,GDP、房价都应增长。基于地球村为人类共有和科技生产力由人类创造,增长的GDP应由全民共享,故房价的Hp/3应用于补贴"三农"补偿土地出让以缩小工农城乡差距,另Hp/3应用于充实社保以缩小贫富差距,剩下的Hp/3作为房屋造价和开发商利润。可见,房价经分解成三个Hp/3后具有宏调功能,在(0,4]内的适度高房价乃土地产出率不断提高的反映,有利于缩小收入差距,在改善民生克服经济危机中推动GDP平稳增长。     

P21^WAF/CIP1在胃肠道间质瘤中的表达及其与临床病理因素间的关系

P21^WAF/CIP1在GIST中的表达情况及其与临床痛理因素间的关系，为GIST的治疗和预后评估提供科学依据。方法应用免疫组织化学方法（PV-8000二步法）检测P21^WAF/CIP1在GIST中的表达。结果P21^WAF/CIP1蛋白在GIST中的总阳性表达率为61．7％（37／60）。P21^WAF/CIP1与GIST的肿瘤直径、核分裂像数和组织学分级间的差异有统计学意义（P〈0．05），结论P21^WAF/CIP1的表达水平与GIST的危险程度密切相关，提示P21^WAF/CIP1可成为临床判定GIST危险程度和预后的重要参考指标。     

试建立楼价调控公式——投资置业系数CIP=(0,4]的发现

近三年来中国楼市为什么飙升?年均近10%的GDP增长率同楼价间存在什么关系?楼价同恩格尔系数和基尼系数相关吗?现在的楼市价位合理吗?政府应如何调控楼价呢?未来楼价趋势能预测吗?……投资置业系数的发现和楼价调控公式的建立破解了这些令政府、专家、老百姓百思不得其解的疑问。房地产除成本价外,更重要的是购买力牵引而成的与工资挂靠的均价,因而楼价调控公式是指房地产均价等于投资置业系数乘以全社会居民月均工资。这个公式揭示了房地产均价与居民月均收入二者间比例关系,称这个比例函数为投资置业系数。在中国现行经济状况和政策条件下,投资置业系数最大为4,最小自然不得低于0。有了这组常数范围,政府就可对楼价作出实时数量化调控,老百姓就能时刻把握楼价市场趋势。     

内陆出口企业如何选择贸易术语

在国际贸易中,贸易术语的选择关系到贸易当事人的切身利益,将会对贸易当事人产生极大的影响。我国企业在出口业务中习惯采用CIF贸易术语,这一模式对内陆出口企业较为不利。CIF与CIP在适用的运输方式、签发的运输单据、出口方承担的责任以及运费方面存在差异,CIP术语更适用于内陆出口企业,有利于内陆出口企业降低风险、及早结汇并节省运费。因而在国际贸易中,内陆出口企业选择CIP术语不但有利于我国西部大开发战略的实施,也有利于加强泛珠三角区域经济合作。     

经济危机根源及其消除方法论

扫描人类活动,从中找到了公平、质效、GDP三个关键点。公平因素包括不公平分配和不公平交易,是引发经济危机的根本点。为实现公平,从土地切入发现了平衡工农城乡利益机制的投资置业系数CIP=(0,4]。这只能消除贫富悬殊引发的产消不畅之实体危机。为全面消除经济危机,应针对经济危机的六个阶段建设消除经济危机的系统工程。经济发展总是从公平到不公平,从公平、质效、GDP三者平衡到不平衡,最后进入经济危机状态;经济危机往往从金融危机开始,而我们应从土地切入调动资金作战。     

数字时代中美印刷高等教育现状分析及发展建议

伴随着媒介技术的融合,当今印刷行业面临前所未有的挑战,印刷专业人才的培养被提升至新的高度。顺应数字时代与国际化的发展要求,建立符合我国印刷产业发展现状的印刷高等教育,是数字时代赋予印刷行业的重要命题。本文从印刷学科归属、学位与专业设置、课程设置、教学理念、教学资源五个方面对美国和我国的印刷高等教育现状作系统化分析与比较,提出我国印刷学科归属急需调整、印刷专业人才培养应注重启发式与实践性教学、倡导开放式办学理念等观点。     

人民币对美元利率平价分析

引入外汇价格和存贷利率因素,把利率平价模型变得更贴近经济运行的实际情况,由此计算出在抛补利率平价模型下隐含的美元利率。运用此理论对中国实证发现,隐含美元利率和现实美元利率之间存在很大利差。各微观金融交易主体几乎没有利率自主权以及资本项目不可自由兑换是存在套利空间的主要原因。要消除美元套利空间,首先要掌握人民币外汇远期定价权;其次,要逐步开放资本项目,实现人民币的自由浮动和国际化;最后要完善汇率体制改革和加强国际间的协调。