Forecasting category sales and market share for wireless telephone subscribers: a combined approach

The ability to forecast market share remains a challenge for many managers especially in dynamic markets, such as the telecommunications sector. In order to accommodate the unique dynamic characteristics of the telecommunications market, we use a multi-component model, called MSHARE. Our method involves a two-phase process. The first phase consists of three components: a projection method, a ring down survey methodology and a purchase intentions survey. The predictions from these components are combined to forecast category sales for the wireless subscribers market. In the second phase, market shares for the various brands are generated using the forecast of the number of subscribers that are obtained in Phase 1 and the share predictions from the ring down methodology. The proposed methodology produces the minimum Relative Absolute Error for each market as compared to the forecasts from each individual component in the first phase. The value of the proposed model is illustrated by its application to a real world scenario. The managerial implications of the proposed model are also discussed.     

浅析上市公司股利信息在价值投资中的应用

根据信号传递理论,股利政策传递了会计利润所不能传达的信息,股利政策能较为真实的反映一个公司的价值。文章通过对上市公司的分配方案的分析,揭示其利润分配的真实动因,解读管理者传递的公司内部信息,从而预测其未来发展前景,评价其投资价值。     

公共投资项目特许权经营面临的问题与对策分析

目前，我国大多数公共投资项目由政府投资建设厦经营管理，其结果是经营管理效率低下、建设资金短缺、融资难等问题日益突出，发展特许权经营已被公认为解决上述问题的有效模式。本文从法律、风险分担、政府监管等角度分析了在公共投资项目领域实施特许经营所面临的问题，并提出了有效实施特许经营模式的对策与建议。     

宁夏农业发展的生态问题与保护治理的投融资机制研究

宁夏农业的发展面临着严重的生态问题,其治理与保护的瓶颈之一就是资金不足。本文在分析了宁夏农地存在的生态问题和原有投资效果的基础下,结合生态保护和治理的特殊性,提出了新的融资模式和投资机制。融资模式可以采用基金会融资模式和准项目融资模式,以保证融资渠道的稳定长效。投资机制上应该考虑到生态退化程度不同的区域采用不同的投资途径以确保资金使用的有效。     

Do social factors influence investment behavior and performance? Evidence from mutual fund holdings

We study the economic significance of social dimensions in investment decisions by analyzing the holdings of U.S. equity mutual funds over the period 2004–2012. Using these holdings, we measure funds’ exposures to socially sensitive stocks in order to answer two questions. What explains cross-sectional variation in mutual funds’ exposure to controversial companies? Does exposure to controversial stocks drive fund returns? We find that exposures to socially sensitive stocks are weaker for funds that aim to attract socially conscious and institutional investor clientele, and they relate to local political and religious factors. The financial payoff associated with greater “sin” stock exposure is positive and statistically significant, but becomes non-significant with broader definitions of socially sensitive investments. Despite the positive relation between mutual fund return and sin stock exposure, the annualized risk-adjusted return spread between a portfolio of funds with highest sin stock exposure and its lowest-ranked counterpart is statistically not significant. The results suggest that fund managers do not tilt heavily towards controversial stocks because of social considerations and practical constraints.     

Altruism and egoism in investment decisions

We provide survey evidence that personal values have an impact on individual investment decisions, in particular preferences for socially responsible investing. Our findings show that there is a positive link between altruistic values and the relative importance of social responsibility. This effect is stronger when individuals believe that they can make a positive social or environmental impact with their investments, or when they feel morally obliged to invest responsibly. If altruistic individuals associate responsible investments with higher returns, it decreases their motivation to invest responsibly. Egoistic values are negatively associated with the decision to invest responsibly, unless individuals associate responsible investing with higher returns.     

Underperformance of Actively Managed Portfolios: Some Behavioral Insights

Abstract

Two glaring anomalies in investment management are apparent: (1) after fees, active portfolio managers do worse than market indices, and (2) clients continue to pay for services they don’t receive. The purpose of this paper is to offer explanations of these anomalies from a behavioral perspective. We explore some of the cognitive biases that perpetuate active management and subsequent underperformance, including herding, disposition, and endowment effects, as well as conservatism and status quo biases, overconfidence, and agency problems. Investors’ continued use of active managers despite persistent disappointing returns is attributed to being victims of framing effect, hot-hand fallacy, lack of knowledge as well as intimidation or insecurity, and status quo bias. We propose some ways that portfolio managers and investors could improve their decision making.     

The Significance of CSF Among Enterprises in Latvia： An In-depth Analysis

The present research paper is dedicated to the in-depth analysis of the significance of critical-to-success factors （CSF） among enterprises in Latvia. The goal is to distinguish and find key success factors of Latvian companies who survived the economic crisis, which started in 2008, and executed the enabling objectives of the paper. Research methodology involves the analysis of the existing theoretical literature, in-depth interviews with the top management representatives of large Latvian business entities were interviewed by GFK （Custom Research Baltic agency） on behalf of the authors of the paper. It is found out that 10 largest industries for the big companies are： fuel retail and wholesale, energetics, food retail and wholesale, chemical products, logistics, metal processing, financial services, information technologies service and production, passenger transportation, and telecommunication services. For medium companies such industries are： food retail and wholesale, logistics, fuel retail and wholesale, wood processing, automotive industry, construction, financial services, pharmaceutical products, metal processing, and beverage wholesale and production. The authors also scrutinised 72 articles of 38 Forbes magazine archiving from the years 2010-2014. Thirty CSF were defmed. The most significant CSF according to the Forbes interviews are specific market niche, export, technological innovations, and high quality of products and services. The in-depth interviews with the top management representatives prove the importance of the above mentioned factors. Relevant recommendations are provided in the end of the paper.     

生态建设与环境保护的政府投资战略研究

作者认为，政府投资于生态建设和环境保护的动力受其两类投资战略是否确定的影响：一是受生态安全投资战略是否确定的影响，二是受生态与环境经济投资的乘数效应战略是否确定的影响。本文探讨了政府对生态建设和环境保护的这两种投资战略和有机结合的三种方式及其相应的投资力度等问题。     

公募基金与阳光私募基金经理的投资能力实证分析

我国公募基金与阳光私募基金的发展从20世纪80年代末至今得到了长足的发展。主要采用TM模型和HM模型对基金经理的选股能力和择时能力进行了对比分析,总体来看,私募基金经理的投资能力优于公募基金经理。当用成功概率法进行辅助性验证的时候,发现两种激励模式下基金经理对市场方向的预测和判断基本相当,公募基金经理还略胜一筹。分析结果,我国基金行业基金经理的投资能力不具备显著的差异,投资业绩的差异关键在于对仓位的控制以及策略的灵活性。