Correspondence to what? Coherence to what? What is good scenario-based decision making?

This paper provides a framework for the evaluation of scenario planning and other strategic decision making methods or techniques. If scenario planning is useful, we should be teaching it in schools and we as individuals should be using it to cope with the uncertainty inherent in modern life. A prerequisite to this is the need to identify why, where and how (in what way) scenario planning and other methods or techniques are useful. Here, I review evaluations of scenario planning. Taking a Brunswikian perspective, I highlight the issues that have failed to be addressed in this evaluation. I demonstrate that there are many ways in which scenario planning could be useful other than those that have appeared in previous discussions. These multiple routes are dependent upon the interaction between the individual organisation, the environment in which they are operating and the method being followed.     

基于混合K-中心点的Web客户聚类

通过对Web日志文件进行分析，该文提出了一种改进的K-中心点聚类算法对Wweb用户的行为进行分析的方法。该算法利用模糊相似度，并模仿遗传算法中计算适应度思想，另加了一层循环迭代，每次比较适应度，保留最佳适应度，使之有较好的性能，改进了其易局部最优化的缺点。     

数据仓库相关问题的探讨

综述了数据仓库的概念、特点、结构及其关键技术，对创建数据仓库系统过程中存在的有关问题进行了探讨，并展望了其发展趋势。     

我国经济发展水平与劳动力就业数量关系研究——兼论我国劳动力资源是否过剩

我国劳动力对经济发展而言，其生产率高于资本，因而经济发展对劳动力就业的促进作用逐渐减弱（经济增长的就业弹性逐渐变小）。据测算，我国2013年以前劳动力就业压力很大，2015年以后劳动力又会供不应求。所以，我国未来经济发展中，2014年前后应采用不同的产业结构调整策略来充分满足劳动力就业的要求。     

Customer Profitability Analysis Reports for Resource Allocation: The Role of Complex Marketing Environments

Most decision making research in management accounting remains focused on cost information in a production context. Little is known on the relevance of customer profifitability analysis (CuPA) reports, which more accurately reflect revenue and marketing support variations acrosscustomers, for marketing decisions. This study uses an experimental design to examine the impact of such reports on resource allocation decisions (that affect the firm's profits) in marketing environments varying in complexity. The main result of the experiment suggests that the value of CuPA reports depends on the complexity of the marketing setting. Only in a highly complex marketing setting do they enhance resource allocation decisions and resultant firm profitability. Conversely, in the simple marketing environment, decision makers can combine their traditional volume-based cost data with other available types of feedback to perform as well as under a more accurate CuPA report. These findings on complexity contrast with those of a prior study in a production context ( Gupta and King, 1997 ). It is argued that improvements in the current research design, in the form of regularly updated profitability reports and concerning accuracy, increase the relevance of CuPA reports in a complex marketing setting.     

Lotus Domino/Notes的公开密钥加密机制

公开密钥加密技术在最近几年得到了极大的重视和发展。本文讨论了公钥加密技术的原理和实施技术，并结合公钥技术在Lotus Domino/Notes中的应用，着重探讨了Lotus系统内部用户校验和认证机制的建立和实施。     

Cost monotonicity, consistency and minimum cost spanning tree games

We propose a new cost allocation rule for minimum cost spanning tree games. The new rule is a core selection and also satisfies cost monotonicity. We also give characterisation theorems for the new rule as well as the much-studied Bird allocation. We show that the principal difference between these two rules is in terms of their consistency properties.     

Conditioning as disintegration

Conditional probability distributions seem to have a bad reputation when it comes to rigorous treatment of conditioning. Technical arguments are published as manipulations of Radon–Nikodym derivatives, although we all secretly perform heuristic calculations using elementary definitions of conditional probabilities. In print, measurability and averaging properties substitute for intuitive ideas about random variables behaving like constants given particular conditioning information.
One way to engage in rigorous, guilt-free manipulation of conditional distributions is to treat them as disintegrating measures—families of probability measures concentrating on the level sets of a conditioning statistic. In this paper we present a little theory and a range of examples—from EM algorithms and the Neyman factorization, through Bayes theory and marginalization paradoxes—to suggest that disintegrations have both intuitive appeal and the rigor needed for many problems in mathematical statistics.     

Generalizations of Ho–Lee’s binomial interest rate model I: from one- to multi-factor

In this paper a multi-factor generalization of Ho–Lee model is proposed. In sharp contrast to the classical Ho–Lee, this generalization allows for those movements other than parallel shifts, while it still is described by a recombining tree, and is a process with stationary independent increments to be compatible with principal component analysis. Based on the model, generalizations of duration-based hedging are proposed. A continuous-time limit of the model is also discussed. This research was supported by Open Research Center Project for Private Universities: matching fund subsidy from MEXT, 2004–2008 and also by Grants-in-Aids for Scientific Research (No. 18540146) from the Japan Society for Promotion of Sciences.