Predicting the equity market with option-implied variables

We comprehensively analyze the predictive power of several option-implied variables for monthly S&P 500 excess returns and realized variance. The correlation risk premium (CRP) and the variance risk premium (VRP) emerge as strong predictors of both excess returns and realized variance. This is true both in- and out-of-sample. Our results also reveal that statistical evidence of predictability does not necessarily lead to economic gains. However, a timing strategy based on the CRP leads to utility gains of more than 5.03% per annum. Forecast combinations provide stable forecasts for both excess returns and realized variance, and add economic value.     

Directional duality theory Directional duality theory

In this paper we introduce a complete duality theory based on directional distance functions. This duality theory parallels the duality theory based on radial distance functions in Färe and Primont (1995).     

不良贷款约束下的中国银行业全要素生产率增长研究

本文运用共同边界Malmquist-Luenberger生产率指数测度了2004—2009年中国27家商业银行在不良贷款约束下的全要素生产率增长及其成分,并对影响全要素生产率增长的宏观经济因素进行了实证分析。本文的主要结论有:在表示偏离共同边界的技术落差比率方面,国有商业银行呈"V"型,股份制商业银行较平稳,城市商业银行逐步上升;总体上,中国银行业的全要素生产率是进步的,纯技术进步是推动全要素生产率进步的主要动力,纯技术效率变化和规模效率变化进步都不明显,技术规模变化显示中国银行业趋向CRS边界;股份制商业银行的纯技术赶超最优,而潜在技术相对变动方面表现较弱;外资银行进入和固定资产投资增加对银行全要素生产率提高有推动作用。     

SZJ-1三轴智能校验台标准装置测量不确定度的评定方法

简要介绍了建立SZJ-1三轴智能校验台标准装置的必要性及原理框图。详细论述了其测量不确定度的评定方法。并对标准装置的测量不确定度进行了验证。     

Reflections on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: 30 Years Later

In recent years financial economists have increasingly questioned the efficient market hypothesis. But surely if market prices were often irrational and if market returns were as predictable as some critics have claimed, then professionally managed investment funds should easily be able to outdistance a passive index fund. This paper shows that professional investment managers, both in The U.S. and abroad, do not outperform their index benchmarks and provides evidence that by and large market prices do seem to reflect all available information.     

Out‐of‐sample stock return predictability in emerging markets

This article builds on the widely debated issue of stock return predictability by applying a broad range of predictor variables and comprehensively considering the in‐sample and out‐of‐sample stock return predictability of ten advanced emerging markets. It compares forecasts from models with a single predictor variable, multiple predictor variables and a combination forecast approach. The results confirm the findings of Welch and Goyal (2008) for US data that only a limited number of individual predictor variables are able to deliver significant out‐of‐sample forecasts. However, a combination forecast approach provides statistically and economically significant out‐of‐sample forecast results.     

Brand capital and firm value

We study the role of brand capital – a primary form of intangible capital – for firm valuation and risk in the cross section of publicly traded firms. Using an empirical measure of brand capital stock constructed from advertising expenditures accounting data, we show that: (i) firms with low brand capital investment rates have higher average stock returns than firms with high brand capital investment rates, a difference of 5.2% per annum; (ii) more brand capital intensive firms have higher average stock returns than less brand capital intensive firms, a difference of 5.1% per annum; and (iii) investment in both brand capital and physical capital is volatile and procyclical. A neoclassical investment-based model in which brand capital is a factor of production subject to adjustment costs matches the data well. The model also provides a novel explanation for the empirical links between advertising expenditures and stock returns around seasoned equity offerings (SEO) documented in previous studies.     

Structural breaks in the mean of dividend-price ratios: Implications of learning on stock return predictability

In their out-of-sample predictions of stock returns in the presence of structural breaks, Lettau and Van Nieuwerburgh (2008) implicitly assume that economic agents’ perception of the regime-specific mean for the dividend-price ratio is time-invariant within a regime. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and employ least squares learning with constant gain (or constant-gain learning) in estimating economic agents’ time-varying perception for the mean of dividend-price ratio. We obtain better out-of-sample predictions of stock returns than in Lettau and Van Nieuwerburgh (2008) for both the U.S. and Japanese stock markets. Our empirical results suggest that economic agents’ learning plays an important role in the dynamics of stock returns.     

Credit risk pricing and the rationality of lending decision-making within dual banking systems: A parametric approach

The reduction of non-performing loans, and making correct provisions for them, plays a primary role in the management and minimization of banking credit risk. However, these actions depend primarily upon the cost at which banks may dispose of these bad loans. Hence, this study aims to perceive the price of banks’ credit risk via estimating the shadow price of non-performing loans. We assess and compare the perceived price of the credit risk of Islamic and conventional banks operating in 9 countries from the Middle East and Asia, using a quadratic directional distance function. Following this, we evaluate the impact of different settings of directional vectors on shadow prices by conducting a risk-sensitivity analysis. Applying bootstrap regression, the factors affecting NPLs’ prices are further investigated. The paper concludes that the estimation of the shadow prices of bad loans can provide important elements in favor of credit risk management and, therefore, credit risk mitigation.     

S&P 500 Affiliation and Stock Price Informativeness

Abstract

When firms are added to a stock index, more information should be discovered, traded on, and incorporated into their stock prices, making them more informative. We test this hypothesis using a large sample of additions to the S&P 500 index. Using two alternative statistical tests, we find that the stocks added experience more random, less predictable return and, thus, appear to be priced more efficiently information-wise. We further find concurrent increases in institutional ownership and investor awareness, which tend to contribute to the higher pricing efficiency, adding to the literature. These findings should be of interest to academics and practitioners.