The anticipated and concurring effects of the EMU: exchange rate volatility, institutions and growth

Reduced exchange rate volatility and higher and less heterogeneous quality of institutional rules and macroeconomic policies are two of the main (anticipated and concurring) effects expected from a currency union.In this paper, we measure the magnitude of these two effects for the Eurozone countries looking at real effective exchange rates (REER) and at different indicators of quality of institutional rules and macroeconomic policies (QIRMP). We find that the first effect is much stronger than the second when we compare relative changes for Eurozone countries and the rest of the world in the relevant period.We further evaluate the impact of both effects on economic growth on a larger sample of countries. Our findings show that both have significant impact on levels (more robust) and on rates of growth (weaker) of per capita GDP.     

Catching up: The role of demand, supply and regulated price effects on the real exchange rates of four accession countries

The main aim of this paper is to examine the exchange rate behaviour of a group of four transitional, EU accession countries, with a view to making policy recommendations regarding their full accession to the European Monetary Union. We employ a dynamic OLS panel estimator to investigate the relative importance of demand and supply influences on the exchange rates of these countries. Our analysis shows that both supply‐ and demand‐side effects are important for the accession countries, although their overall effect on inflation differentials and competitiveness seems to be small. An additional focus of the paper is the examination of the role that administrated, or regulated, prices and the productivity of the distribution sector play in the real exchange rate dynamics. Using a unique database we show that administrative prices have been a powerful force behind price and real exchange developments for our group of accession countries. The distribution sector is shown to have an independent effect on the internal price ratio over and above that generated by the Balassa–Samuelson effect.     

Estimating exchange rate dynamics with diffusion processes: an application to Greek EMU data

Recently various exchange rate models capturing the dynamics during the transition from an exchange rate arrangement of floating rates into a currency union have been derived. Technically, these stochastic equilibrium models are diffusion processes which have to be estimated by discretely sampled observations. Using daily exchange rate data prior to the Greek EMU-entrance on 1 January 2001, we develop a rigorous estimation procedure. Our estimates point to an increasing interventionist economic policy in the run-up to the Greek EMU entrance. A comparison of this econometric indication with policy information provided (ex-post) by the Bank of Greece (BoG) in its Annual Report 2000 reveals that the BoG indeed pursued such an active policy stance (so-called institutional frontloading strategies).      

Effects of Economic Convergence on Stock Market Returns in Major EMU Member Countries

This study updates and extends existing literature by investigating the effects of economic convergence among major European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) member countries on stock market returns in each respective nation. Main findings include: (1) long-term stability in the EMU appears to be attainable, but further integration of product and factor markets is needed to reinforce convergence of real sectors; (2) the UK can be considered a quasi EMU participant due to convergence of its key economic variables with those of formal EMU members; and (3) economic convergence appears to be an important contributing factor to returns from stock markets in the included EMU countries except Germany.     

无拍频控制技术在新一代CRH380CL型高速动车组上的应用

高速动车组技术的迅猛发展对牵引变流器的性能提出了更高的要求。在动车组传动系统中,单相脉冲整流器工作时,会在中间直流环节产生2倍于电网频率的脉动分量,该脉动分量传递到逆变器输出侧会在电机上产生拍频现象,引起转矩脉动和电机过热。     

广深客运专线动车组能耗计算与分析

通过对动车组能耗的各种影响因素的分析,按照动车组运行过程的起停、运行、调速制动、出入库等环节,针对每一环节分别研究其能耗计算方法,考虑坡道附加能耗和空调能耗,分别建立数学模型、确定修正系数。研究提供的动车组能耗计算方法可以进行能耗计算与预测,以及对能耗影响因素进行分析。以广深客运专线为例,动车组能耗计算结果与实际能耗的拟合性好,可以为合理确定既有线和客运专线动车组能耗水平提供帮助。     

高速铁路动车组检修资源布局优化研究

高速铁路网的日趋完善,高速列车开行数量的进一步增加,对高速铁路动车组检修资源布局提出新的要求。为合理优化动车组检修资源布局,提高动车组检修效率,在分析我国动车段和动车运用所管理模式及布局方案的基础上,将动车组检修资源布局优化问题转化为基于多基地车辆路径运用的基地选址问题,基于"备选运用所-运输需求-动车组运用"间的关联关系构建动车组运用检修接续网络,建立动车组检修资源布局优化模型。以某区域的铁路网为例,利用近远期规划优化动车组检修资源布局,验证模型有效性,为今后动车组检修资源布局优化提供参考。     

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES INTERACTION IN MONETARY UNIONS

In this paper, the literature on the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in a monetary union is surveyed. By adopting the concept of symbiosis as a starting point, the paper highlights the importance of uncertainty, policy makers' preferences and targets. Then, the role of commitment to policy rules and coordination is addressed. The analysis also focuses on the importance of the data considered for the generation of the policy mix. As a final step, the paper discusses the main results in the literature on public debt management in a monetary union. All the reported theoretical results are then adopted to retrieve policy and institutional implications for the European Monetary Union.     

Assessing time-varying stock market integration in Economic and Monetary Union for normal and crisis periods

In this paper, we examine the stock market integration process amongst 17 Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries from January 2002 to June 2013 over a normal period as well as for the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and Eurozone Debt Crisis (EDC) periods. We classify the economies in three groups (A, B and C) based on their GDP to examine whether the economic size influences financial integration. Seven indicators are used for the purpose, namely, beta convergence, sigma convergence, variance ratio, asymmetric DCC, dynamic cointegration, market synchronisation measure and common components approach. The results suggest that large-sized EMU economies (termed as Group A) exhibit strong stock market integration. Moderate integration is observed for middle-sized EMU economies with old membership (termed as Group B). Small-sized economies (termed as Group C) economies seemed to be least integrated within the EMU stock market system. The findings further suggest presence of contagion effects as one moves from normal to crisis periods, which are specifically stronger for more integrated economies of Group A. We recommend institutional, regulatory and other policy reforms for Group B and especially Group C to achieve higher level of integration.     

Productivity,Demand, and Regulated Price Effects Revisited: An Analysis of the Real Bilateral Exchange Rates of Four New EU Member States

This paper examines the behavior of internal price ratios and bilateral real exchange rates of a group of four new EU member states-Estonia, Hungary, Slovakia, and Slovenia. We employ a dynamic ordinary least squares panel estimator to investigate the relative importance of demand and supply influences on the internal and external exchange rates of these countries. Our analysis shows that both supply- and demand-side effects are important, though supply-side effects dominate. The paper also examines the role that administrated or regulated prices and the productivity of the distribution sector play in real exchange rate dynamics. We show that administrated prices have been a powerful force behind price and real exchange developments for our group of accession countries.