On Testing for the Nullity of Some Skewness Coefficients

Three tests for the skewness of an unknown distribution are derived for iid data. They are based on suitable normalization of estimators of some usual skewness coefficients. Their asymptotic null distributions are derived. The tests are next shown to be consistent and their power under some sequences of local alternatives is investigated. Their finite sample properties are also studied through a simulation experiment, and compared to those of the √ b ₂-test.     

Some Cracks in the Empire of Chance (Flaws in the Foundations of Reliability)

Making quantified statements about the uncertainty associated with the lifelength of an item is one of the most fundamental tasks of reliability assessment. Most practitioners routinely do this using one of the several available statistical techniques. The purpose of this paper is two-fold. The first is to give the user an overview of the key tenets of two of the most commonly used parametric approaches. The second is to point out that these commonly used approaches involve strategies that are either ad hoc, or are in violation of some of the underlying tenets. A method that is devoid of logical flaws can be proposed, but this method is difficult to implement. The user must therefore resign to using that technique against which the fewest objections can be hurled.     

Conditioning as disintegration

Conditional probability distributions seem to have a bad reputation when it comes to rigorous treatment of conditioning. Technical arguments are published as manipulations of Radon–Nikodym derivatives, although we all secretly perform heuristic calculations using elementary definitions of conditional probabilities. In print, measurability and averaging properties substitute for intuitive ideas about random variables behaving like constants given particular conditioning information.
One way to engage in rigorous, guilt-free manipulation of conditional distributions is to treat them as disintegrating measures—families of probability measures concentrating on the level sets of a conditioning statistic. In this paper we present a little theory and a range of examples—from EM algorithms and the Neyman factorization, through Bayes theory and marginalization paradoxes—to suggest that disintegrations have both intuitive appeal and the rigor needed for many problems in mathematical statistics.     

Bayes方法在教学效度分析上应用与实现

本文提出了基于Bayes理论方法的多元数据融合方法,给出了该方法在教学改革中教学质量综合评估中的应用,并结合体育课内容制定的实例证明了该方法的有效性。     

我国发展对外直接投资的必要性

随着我国经济的快速发展和综合国力的显著增强，我国企业实施走出去战略。扩大对外直接投资是其必然的战略选择。本文运用发展中国家对外直接投资理论。对我国开展对外直接投资的必要性进行了分析研究，认为市场竞争、资源不足以及产业结构升级等是促使我国企业进行对外直接投资的主要动因，并对这些动因进行了实证分析和检验。     

What lies beneath—Negative interest rates and bank lending

We study the transmission of negative interest rates to bank lending around an unexpected policy rate cut into deep negative territory by the Swiss National Bank (−0.75%). We exploit a rich data set on transaction-level corporate loans matched with bank balance sheet data. We find that banks more affected by negative interest rates offer looser lending terms and lend more than other banks. This result is consistent with the risk-taking channel, where a lower policy rate spurs bank risk-taking to maintain profits. The result implies that, even in such deep negative territory, the reversal rate has not yet been hit.     

中国区域经济发展差异及其原因的多尺度分析

本文采用经验模态方法对中国1953—2002年区域经济发展差异进行多尺度分析,并对不同尺度的区域经济差异的原因进行探讨。研究表明,50年来中国区域经济差异波动主要以60年尺度、17.5年尺度和趋势为主,近期区域差异呈扩大趋势。从不同尺度生产要素投入差异和区域差异的关系看,要素投入差异会引起区域差异,区域差异也会引起要素投入环境差异并引发要素投入差异的变化,在制定区域政策时应考虑区域差距波动的短期性和长期性。     

Linking performance drivers in production planning and inventory control to process choice

This study investigates how process choice relates to production planning and inventory control decisions. We empirically examine the validity of deductively derived patterns about these types of decisions. More importantly, we look for normative insights by exploring how production planning and inventory control decisions affect operations performance. Our findings show that production line and continuous flow plants use more of a level production strategy, and carry less raw material and work-in-process inventory. The performance drivers for these plants, through which the operations function excels, are effective utilization of equipment, reduced finished goods inventory, and reduced setup down time. To gain forward demand visibility and batching economies, job and batch shops rely much more on backlogs in their planning process. These plants use more of a production chase strategy and position inventory lower in the bills of materials. Four performance drivers for top-performing job and batch shops are to find ways that better anticipate customers' orders, have a more responsive chase strategy, carry less raw material or purchased inventory, and shorten production planning horizon, partly through less reliance on backlogs. It is intriguing that top-performing plants not only do the expected things, given their choice of process, but also excel in selected dimensions—some of which fit the profile normally associated with a different process choice. To monitor and continuously improve operations, evaluation ‘scorecards’ should pay particular attention to performance drivers, which change depending on the plant's process choice.     

计量经济学的地位、作用和局限

目前,计量经济学和微观经济学与宏观经济学一起构成了中国高校经济管理类本科生和研究生必修的三门经济学核心理论课程。计量经济学在中国经济学界受到越来越广泛的关注,其方法与工具也在实证研究中被大量应用。本文将阐述现代计量经济学的基本思想和方法论,计量经济学在经济学研究中的地位、作用和局限性,计量经济学与数理经济学、数理统计学及经济统计学之间的差异,等等,并运用大量经济学和金融学中有代表性的实例说明计量经济学的应用以及在应用时应注意的若干问题。     

试论实物期权及其在会计实证研究中的运用

实物期权是以实物资产为标的物的未来选择权。实物期权的思想目前已被西方的学者广泛地用于会计的 实证研究当中,然而国内却鲜有学者涉足这一领域。因此本文试就此做出简要的介绍,以期起到抛砖引玉的作用。