Introduction to “Economic and Financial Governance in the European Union after a decade of Economic and Political Crises.”

ABSTRACT

This paper offers the Introduction to the Special Issue “Economic and Financial Governance in the European Union after a decade of Economic and Political Crises.” We introduce the five papers. We distill three important lessons they offer for EU integration.     

Eurobond underwriter spreads

We examine the determinants of underwriter spreads on straight/fixed rate Eurobonds issued by US firms between 1990 and 1998. We find that underwriter spreads are influenced by: (i) the governing law as it influences the timely and orderly renegotiation of contract terms, with bonds governed by English law having significantly lower spreads; (ii) the distribution mechanism, with spreads higher on public issues than private placements; (iii) underwriter reputation, with more reputable underwriters charging higher spreads; and (iv) the choice of currency, with spreads higher in the less frequently used currencies and/or in currencies where underwriting activities are more concentrated.     

Effects of Eurobonds: A stochastic sovereign debt sustainability analysis for Portugal,Ireland and Greece

This paper assesses the impact of Eurobonds on sovereign debt dynamics for selected European member states (Greece, Ireland and Portugal). For each member state, we produce sovereign debt fan charts of (i) a baseline scenario (no Eurobonds) and (ii) a Full-Fledged Eurobond introduction. The key building blocks of our methodology are (i) a debt framework (which embeds the traditional recursive debt equation), (ii) a vector autoregressive model to take into account and parametrise macroeconomic uncertainty and (iii) a fiscal reaction function. Conditional on the absence of moral hazard, we find Eurobonds to be a good instrument to absorb macroeconomic shocks and to diminish uncertainty over future debt forecasts; for Ireland and Portugal, we find debt to be 20 percentage points lower than under our baseline scenario, by 2020.     

Insider employee stock option trading and stock prices

The question of which factors determine corporate bonds pricing is investigated by analysing the spreads of eurobonds issued by major G-10 companies during the 1991–2001 period. Three main results emerge from the analysis. First, bond ratings appear as the most important determinant of yield spreads, with investors’ reliance on rating agencies judgments increasing over time. Second, the primary market efficiency and the expected secondary market liquidity are not relevant explanatory factors of spreads cross-sectional variability. Finally, rating agencies adopt a different, ‘through the cycle’, evaluation criteria of default risk with respect to the forward looking one adopted by bond investors.     

Lemmings in the bond market? An empirical analysis of the term structure of credit spreads

The paper examines the credit spread between government and corporate bonds at different maturities. Theoretical models assume that credit risk premiums for high quality firms monotonously increase with maturity. We find evidence suggesting that bonds issued at maturities attracting the highest issuance volumes tend to have credit risk premiums that are on average 10 to 15 basis points higher than issues at nonconventional maturities. These results point out a shortcoming of existing theoretical models and show that the credit yield curve is not smooth, but affected by the local supply of issues at various parts of the yield curve. In addition, the empirical evidence presented in this paper indicates that firms utilizing the bond markets for funding could lower their funding costs by shifting the term of their debt away from the most commonly targeted maturities.

An analysis of eurobonds

We analyse different forms of debt mutualisation in a union of countries. One country suffers from a political distortion and may resort to (partial) debt default. We consider a debt repayment guarantee, which can be “unlimited” or ”limited”, i.e. only be invoked when the guarantee threshold is not exceeded. We also explore the ”blue–red” bonds proposal, under which blue debt is guaranteed, while red debt is not guaranteed. Only a suitably chosen limited guarantee induces the government to reduce debt and raises union welfare. This result is upheld under the time-consistent solution when there are costs to the rest of the union of not providing financial rescue. Making the guarantee also conditional on sufficient structural reform may in addition stimulate reform effort, thereby raising union welfare.     

The choice of maturity and additional covenants in debt contracts: A panel data approach

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis for the choice of contract terms in UK Eurobonds. Typically, the theory associates the choice of debt contract terms to firm and market characteristics, arguing that an adequate choice of these terms allows for the reduction of debt contracting costs. We use a panel data approach to examine the validity of extant predictions concerning the choice of maturity, call options, convertible options and protective covenants. Findings provide support to the agency prediction that debt contract terms function as alternative control mechanisms. Additionally, complementary role is found for the use of convertible and call options. Evidence that managers follow a maturity-matching rule, favour capital structure's flexibility in high growth scenarios and use protective covenants when firm's credibility is low corroborates further agency predictions.     

Forecasting Credit Spread Volatility: Evidence from the Japanese Eurobond Market

Different approaches to forecasting the volatility associated with the credit spreads on Yen Eurobonds are investigated. The actual volatility, historical volatility and estimated conditional volatility on spreads derived from a regression-based model with a GARCH and ARMA specification are compared within an adaptation of Black’s (J. Finance, 31, 1976, 361–367) option-pricing model. Surprisingly, the regression forecast over a medium forecasting horizon suggests that historic volatility provides the better forecast. The implications of these results for volatility forecasting and credit spread modelling are also discussed.JEL Classification: C32; G15     

World Cities and the Uneven Geographies of Financialization: Unveiling Stratification and Hierarchy in the World City Archipelago

This article critically evaluates the network‐centrism of much of contemporary world cities research and queries its capacity to unveil key accumulation processes under financialized globalization. Our object of inquiry is the world city archipelago (WCA), a material yet non‐contiguous space of world city ‘islands', which is (re)produced through the socio‐spatial practices of advanced producer services (APS) firms as they assist in constructing (financial) accumulation strategies for their clients. Scrutinizing the WCA with a singular focus on networks can veil dynamics that lead to internal stratification and hierarchy between world cities and their constitutive outside. Alternatively, these veiled dimensions are better grasped by territorial, scalar and place‐based abstractions. As an example, we unveil WCA space by studying the space of APS practices in three recent cases of Eurobond issuance. By comparing these three instances through an encompassing approach, a bounded geography of a financialized accumulation space is identified, which contains London and other world cities as a necessary space of dependence but also stretches out to various contingent spaces of engagement at the fringes of the WCA network: offshore jurisdictions and places of debt origination. We conclude by making the case for a heightened sensitivity in respect of core–periphery structures that exist between the WCA and its outside, but also within the WCA itself.