中国城市化有关问题初探

城市化问题是当代社会经济发展的重大问题，是涉及到自然资源的合理开发利用，农村人口转化、剩余劳动力的走向以及城市工业、第三产业发展的关键问题。     

金融体系杠杆形成机制和管控建议

2008年国际金融危机的一个深刻教训是金融杠杆的过犹不及。本文在金融杠杆概 念及相关文献综述的基础上,对我国金融部门杠杆率进行了多角度的测算,并分析金融过度杠 杆化的形成机制,梳理当前已采取的金融去杠杆措施,总结值得关注的问题,为下一步管控金 融杠杆、稳住宏观杠杆提供参考。     

TFP growth in Chinese cities: The role of factor-intensity and industrial agglomeration

This article estimates agglomeration effects via calculating EG (Elilsion & Glaeser) and TFP growth (Total Factor Production) by considering the undesired output of the industrial enterprise database and the entropy weight method. Using panel data of 207 county-level cities in China and 28 two-digit manufacturing industries from 2003 to 2013 based on SIC codes, this paper analyzes the relationship between agglomeration and TFP growth through the smooth transition model under different regions and factor-intensity. The results are as follows. (1) A negative relationship appears in manufacturing productivity. The agglomeration effect changes to the crowded effect. Environmental pollution is also generated by transportation and inadequate pollution treatment technology. (2) The excessive agglomeration phenomenon of developed areas (eastern region) is less than the less developed areas (central and western regions). (3) Resource-intensity industries present two thresholds that indicate complex regional features. For various intensive industries in different regions, the relationship between GML and agglomeration is different. High agglomeration does not always promote TFP growth. (4) At different levels of urban industrial agglomeration, the influences of efficiency change and technical change on GML are different. Overall, moderate agglomeration in all regions helps promote economic development.     

危机冲击与中国贸易“超调式”震荡的经验分析

从总量层面、贸易国别层面以及BEC产品类别层面,对本轮全球金融危机冲击下中国进、出口贸易的波动情况进行了分析。结果表明,中国进、出口贸易不仅在总量层面上表现出十分显著的"超调式"震荡特征,而且"超调式"震荡特征有着显著的贸易国别差异性和产品类别差异性。综合分析后发现,本轮危机冲击下中国进、出口贸易的"超调式"震荡与当代国际分工的演进以及中国在全球分工中的定位有关。据此得到启示:一方面,不应过分夸大贸易波动可能引发的风险进而转向所谓"内需主导型"发展模式,另一方面,缓解危机冲击下贸易大幅震荡应从构建国家价值链入手。     

国有企业过度负债现状分析

国有企业债务负担沉重，资产负债率过高，正常生产经营难以为继，不仅直接危及国有企业本身的生存和发展，对国有经济的持续稳定也会产生不利影响，通过对国有企业进行债务重组，建立现代企业的治理结构，对国有经济进行战略性调整，根本解决国有企业的过度负债。     

对人民币汇率和通货膨胀的思考

2005年7月汇改后,人民币汇率兑美元呈现加速升值的走势。与此同时,国内居民消费价格指数(CPI)上扬,人民币国内购买力呈贬值态势。物价的上涨使大多数劳动者无法从人民币汇率升值中受益,也将使人民币兑美元升值现象难以持久。本文认为在当前人民币兑美元汇率仍存在升值预期下应未雨绸缪,积极疏导流动性过剩,稳定物价水平。     

THE TEN COMMANDMENTS FOR OPTIMIZING VALUE-AT-RISK AND DAILY CAPITAL CHARGES

Abstract.  Credit risk is the most important type of risk in terms of monetary value. Another key risk measure is market risk, which is concerned with stocks and bonds, and related financial derivatives, as well as exchange rates and interest rates. This paper is concerned with market risk management and monitoring under the Basel II Accord, and presents Ten Commandments for optimizing value-at-risk (VaR) and daily capital charges, based on choosing wisely from (1) conditional, stochastic and realized volatility; (2) symmetry, asymmetry and leverage; (3) dynamic correlations and dynamic covariances; (4) single index and portfolio models; (5) parametric, semi-parametric and non-parametric models; (6) estimation, simulation and calibration of parameters; (7) assumptions, regularity conditions and statistical properties; (8) accuracy in calculating moments and forecasts; (9) optimizing threshold violations and economic benefits; and (10) optimizing private and public benefits of risk management. For practical purposes, it is found that the Basel II Accord would seem to encourage excessive risk taking at the expense of providing accurate measures and forecasts of risk and VaR.     

过度竞争、进入壁垒与流通组织优化

过度竞争是流通产业健康运行的重要障碍。文章从产品同质性和产品差异化两个角度,运用扩展的伯川德模型和萨洛普模型,分析了过度竞争在流通产业中出现的必然性,即流通产业自由进入的特点决定了过度竞争的存在。然后运用斯塔尔博格模型,采用跨期分析,指出了流通企业选择合适的投资水平可以阻止潜在进入者,避免过度竞争的发生。最后,提出了优化流通组织的建议。     

Excessive risk exposure: A question of ethical decision-making

This commentary essay reflects on the article titled “When an irresistible force meets an immovable object: The interplay of agency and structure in the UK financial crisis” (Ashby et al., this issue). Specifically, managers took on excessive risk that ultimately contributed to financial crisis. This essay discusses whether the decision to accept excessive risk falls under ethical decision-making, including the degree of moral intensity as possibly perceived by risk and financial managers. The components for determining moral intensity include (1) magnitude of consequences, (2) social consensus, (3) probability of effect, (4) temporal immediacy, (5) proximity, and (6) concentration of effect.     

寻租、过度投资与地方保护

过度投资和地方保护一直是困扰中国经济发展的顽疾。由于这些行为的主体均是地方政府,很多文献试图从政府的角度来解释这两个现象,但是,这些解释与观察到的现实之间有很多差异。在本文中,为了更好的解释过度投资和地方保护现象,我们考虑了寻租动机对于地方政府行为的影响。在考虑了寻租动机后,我们发现,本地企业的最初的决策产能大于后期实际利用的产能。也就是说,存在我们通常说的产能过剩。为了利用这部分未被利用的产能,一个办法是本地企业独占市场,排挤外地厂商,要达到这一目的,只能通过提高外地厂商的成本,也就是实行地方保护主义。