PITFALLS IN CROSS‐SECTION STUDIES WITH INTEGRATED REGRESSORS: A SURVEY AND NEW DEVELOPMENTS

In cross‐section studies, if the dependent variable is I(0) but the regressor is I(1), the true slope must be zero in the resulting “unbalanced regression.” A spuriously significant relationship may be found in large cross‐sections, however, if the integrated regressor is related to a stationary variable that enters the DGP but is omitted from the regression. The solution is to search for the related stationary variable, in some cases the first difference of the integrated regressor, in other cases, a categorical variable that can take on limited number of values which depend on the integrated variable. We present an extensive survey, new developments, and applications particularly in finance.     

浅谈行政事业单位国有资产的有效管理

目前我国国有资产管理主要侧重于经营性资产，行政事业单位的非经营性资产管理仍处于模糊状态。加强行政事业单位国有资产的有效管理，应改革管理体制，健全机构、明确职责，全面清产核资，加强资产配置、使用、处置等环节的管理。     

君特·格拉斯和《猫与鼠》

格拉斯是德国当代著名作家 ,是 1999年诺贝尔文学奖获得者。《猫与鼠》是格拉斯《但泽三部曲》的第二部。文本以动物隐喻的方式叙述了纳粹文化对个体的驯化。主人公马尔克本是个善良的青年学生 ,因为生活在希特勒的国家社会主义时代 ,在纳粹文化的诱骗下 ,丧失了自我道德、自我价值 ,最终走向毁灭。马尔克的命运是特定背景下青年人相同相近的精神状态的真实写照     

An objective Bayesian analysis of common stochastic trends in international stock prices and exchange rates

This paper uses Bayesian methods to analyze unit root and cointegration properties of two different finance data sets. Avoiding the use of subjective prior information, the paper surveys and utilizes several different objective Bayesian methodologies in an investigation of common stochastic trends in international stock markets and in spot and forward exchange rates for several different countries.     

经济全球化悖论之对策研究

经济全球化过程中的负面效应如同经济全球化本身一样是客观的,问题的关键在于如何兴利除弊,特别是发展中国家、欠发展国家应采取积极的对策应对经济全球化的悖论.一是争取建立弱小国家平等地参与全球经济的机制,包括平等地参与制定游戏规则,制定自己的标准等;二是富国应为反贫困负起更大的责任,反贫困的内容是多方面的,发达国家应在多方面承担反贫困的义务;三是增加经济全球的稳定节点.     

把地勘单位推向市场的深层次思考

把地勘单位推向市场是地勘业体制改革的必然选择。只有把地勘单位全面推入商品市场、要素市场、特别是产权交易市场,才能从根本上解决地勘单位营运的激励机制和约束机制。把地勘单位推向市场的实质是把地勘单位塑造为具有“四自”能力的市场主体。为此,必须全面转换地勘单位的经营机制,逐步割断其对国家的依赖关系,使其自主选择市场,立足市场。要进一步深化改革目前不彻底、不完善的两权分离,从不对称性两权分离状态走向对称性两权分离状态。     

Testing of unit roots and other fractionally integrated hypotheses in the presence of structural breaks

Tests of unit roots and other nonstationary hypotheses that were proposed by Robinson (1994) are applied in this article to the Nelson and Plosser's (1982) series. The tests can be expressed in a way allowing for structural breaks under both the null and the alternative hypotheses. When applying the tests to the same dataset as in Perron (1989), we observe that our results might be consistent with those in Perron (1989) when testing the nulls of trend-stationarity or a unit-root. However, we also observe that fractionally integrated hypotheses may be plausible alternatives in the context of structural breaks at a known period of time. Final version received: August 2000/Final version accepted: August 2001 RID="*" ID="*"  The author gratefully acknowledges the financial support from the European TMR grant No. ERBFMRX-CT-98-0213. Comments of two anonymous referees are also acknowledged.     

企业内部组织单元绩效评价:一项有效的制度安排

企业内部组织单元绩效评价是企业绩效评价体系的重要组成部分,是连接企业整体绩效评价与员工个人绩效评价的中间环节。应用委托代理理论对企业内部组织单元绩效评价的地位在理论上进行了分析,并对企业内部组织单元绩效评价的功能也进行了系统分析,认为企业内部组织单元绩效评价是一项有效的制度安排,是解决企业内部组织委托代理链上委托代理关系的重要手段。     

地勘单位合同管理面临的问题及措施分析

论文对地勘单位合同管理中问题及措施进行了探讨研究,首先明确地勘单位合同管理工作中现存的主要问题,然后与其中内容相结合,对处理地勘单位合同管理中问题的措施进行分析,希望能够为有关人士提供帮助。     

Do TFP and the relative price of investment share a common I(1) component?

Results from cointegration tests clearly suggest that TFP and the relative price of investment (RPI) are not cointegrated. Evidence on the alternative possibility that they may nonetheless contain a common I(1) component generating long-horizon co-variation between them crucially depends on the fact that (i) structural breaks are, or are not allowed for, and (ii) the precise nature and timing of such breaks. Not allowing for breaks, evidence points towards the presence of a common component inducing positive long-horizon covariation, which is compatible with the notion that the technology transforming consumption goods into investment goods is non-linear, and the RPI is also impacted upon by neutral shocks. Allowing for breaks, evidence suggests that long-horizon covariation is either nil or negative.Assuming, for illustrative purposes, that the two series contain a common component inducing negative long-horizon covariation, evidence based on structural VARs shows that this common shock (i) plays an important role in macroeconomic fluctuations, explaining sizeable fractions of the forecast error variance of main macro series, and (ii) generates ‘disinflationary booms’, characterized by transitory increases in hours, and decreases in inflation.