Remodeling international tourism demand: Old theory and new evidence

The purpose of this study is to advance the tourism demand theory by excluding simultaneous effects of exchange rates and prices in empirical models, formulating an alternative pricing modus operandi consistent with recent research in the area, and demonstrating the efficacy of the use of an industrial production index (IPI) as a proxy for income. A panel fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) method is employed to estimate the inbound tourism demand for Turkey. Study findings suggest that the inclusion of exchange rates and prices, as mutually exclusive components, can be misleading; the IPI is not a good proxy for income; and country-specific coefficients need to be analyzed to accurately explain determinants of tourism demand for countries in the panel.     

中美地区航线运输条款之间的比较分析

美国海岸线较长,内陆城市众多,目前从远东运往美国中部、南部以及各个海湾港口的集装箱货物一般都经美国内陆运输。因此,远东至美国太平洋沿岸的集装箱运输实际上已发展到经由美国太平洋沿岸港口,将集装箱货物运至美国内陆城市,特别是美国中、西部的集装箱货物均使用多式联运方式。此种运输方式替代了原来由发货人安排的货物从港口经由铁路中转至内陆城市的运输方式,对货主来说,不仅可节省运输时间,提前交付和接收货物,而且手续简便,在货运量集中时,铁路还可给予货主一定的运价优惠。本文详细分析我国对美出口贸易中经常采用的OCP,MLB和IPI运输方式,提出正确区分和使用这些运输方式应注意的事项。     

The Euro Changeover and the Factors Influencing Perceived Inflation

The most flamboyant economic effect of the euro changeover on consumers was a dramatic increase in perceived inflation. To directly measure perceived inflation, Brachinger developed a new index of perceived inflation (IPI). This index is based on some hypotheses about factors influencing perceived inflation. An experimental study is presented which investigated the influence of two of these hypothesized factors, purchase frequency and loss aversion, on individual judgments of price changes. Furthermore, two additional factors have been included that are informative with respect to the IPI, product segment and price level. Judgments of inflation were assessed with three methods, yielding different results. Empirical evidence for the hypotheses was obtained.      

人民币汇率对国内价格的传导机制研究

本文构建了我国进口价格、消费者价格与各相关因素的长期均衡模型。通过实证研究发现：长期内汇率、国际初级商品价格波动是影响我国进口价格指数的显著因素,但其对国内消费者价格的影响并不明显;同时国内需求和货币供应量波动对消费者价格的影响也不显著。从方差分解结果来看,国内消费者价格的上涨更多来自CPI自身的粘性。分段分析结果表明,汇改后人民币有效汇率波动对国内进口价格和消费者价格的传递效率有所提高,汇率工具在宏观经济中的调节作用逐步增强。