Impacts of Declining U.S. Retail Beef Demand on Farm-Level Beef Prices and Production

A systems model was estimated to determine the effects of declining U.S. retail beef demand on farm-level beef prices and production. Retail beef demand declined by nearly 66% from 1976 to 1999. Results indicate autonomous shifts in retail demand significantly impacted farm-level demands and production. Based on equilibrium multipliers, the 1976–99 reduction in beef demand decreased real slaughter cattle prices and production by 32.1% and 11.2%, respectively. Real feeder cattle prices and production decreased by 8.0% and 22.6%, respectively. Combining the decreases in farm prices and production, slaughter and feeder cattle producers experienced a real revenue reduction of $13.3 billion (61%) due to the long-term decline in demand.     

Exact and approximate D-optimal designs in polynomial regression

If the sample sizen is large enough, then the exact polynomial regression designs obtained by rounding the weights of the approximate D-optimal design to integral multiples of 1/n are D-optimal. This was shown by alaevskiî (1966) and Gaffke (1987). In this note, an efficient algorithm to determine the minimum sample sizen _d for a polynomial model of degreed is derived from a condition given by Huang (1987). Under an additional assumption we show that the conditions of Gaffke and Huang are equivalent; we verify the additional assumption for polynomial degreed40.     

General existence of competitive equilibrium in the growth model with an endogenous labor–leisure choice

We prove the existence of competitive equilibrium in the canonical optimal growth model with elastic labor supply under general conditions. In this model, strong conditions to rule out corner solutions are often not well justified. We show using a separation argument that there exist Lagrange multipliers that can be viewed as a system of competitive prices. Neither Inada conditions, nor strict concavity, nor homogeneity, nor differentiability are required for existence of a competitive equilibrium. Thus, we cover important specifications used in the macroeconomics literature for which existence of a competitive equilibrium is not well understood. We give examples to illustrate the violation of the conditions used in earlier existence results but where a competitive equilibrium can be shown to exist following the approach in this paper.     

The effects of public spending externalities

We conduct a positive analysis on the effects of ‘externalities’ produced by government spending. To this effect, we estimate, using U.S. data, an RBC model with two salient features. First, we allow government consumption to directly affect the marginal utility of consumption. Second, we allow public capital to shift the productivity of private factors. We provide an identification analysis that supports the strategy adopted for estimating the parameters governing these two channels. On one hand, private and government consumption are robustly estimated to be substitute goods. Because of substitutability, labor supply reacts little to a government consumption shock, so the estimated output multiplier is much lower than in models with separabilities. On the other hand, our results point towards public investment being ‘unproductive’.     

Lagrange插值多项式平均算子的逼近

本文引入以第二类 Chebyshev 多项式 U_n(x)的零点为基点的 Lagrange 插值多项式平均算子 F_n(f,x),研究用 F_n(f,x)逼近连续函数 f(x)的阶。     

Tourist-income multipliers for Turkey

Differential tourist-income multipliers were calculated for Turkey using conventional input-output methodology and standard linear equations. High values were obtained for the ratio multipliers demonstrating the importance of secondary effects to the Turkish economy. Results indicated that tourists who spent more on retail purchases and less on hotels and restaurants, had a greater propensity to generate more direct and induced income. Information on relative impacts and touristspending patterns could therefore be useful to the policy makers.     

The Environmental Outcome of Emissions-intensive Economic Growth: A Critical Look at Official Growth Projections for Sweden up to the Year 2000

Implications for carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides emissions from the Swedish government's medium-term economic projections are assessed, considering Sweden's environmental goals. Data from the first environmental accounting matrix of Sweden are exploited within the framework of the interindustry model to give emission multipliers for various components of aggregate demand. In view of these emission multipliers, it is evident that the outlined macro-economic development does not conform with Sweden's environmental goals. The oil price and the structural changes assumed in the economic projections stress still further the need for strong environmental policy measures to attain the emission goals. The allocation of total expenditure is shown here to be a critical factor for bringing down the emissions to accepted levels.     

The Japanese information economy: Its quantification and analysis in a macroeconomic framework (with comparisons to the U.S.)

Japan is one of the leading information societies and there is official policy promotion of its information economy image. In this study the information sector of Japan is measured and analysed within a macroeconomic framework, using input-output techniques. Important benchmark statistics on both the primary and secondary information sectors are derived and compared to those obtained in an earlier study of the U.S. The analysis reveals the high growth potential of both information sectors in the two economies. However, important inter-country differences also emerge, in particular in regard to the amount of resources devoted to the information task at the disaggregated sector level. This leads to a discussion of the relationship between investment in the information sector, organisational design, informational efficiency and productivity growth, which is seen to be of crucial importance for the future success or failure of the two economies. Limitations of the approach adopted in this study and areas for further research are indicated.     

The RAS Approach in Updating Input–Output Matrices: An Instrumental Variable Interpretation and Analysis of Structural Change

The main purposes of the paper are to reconsider the rationale of the RAS method, and to attempt to improve on its interpretation and usefulness. The substitution and fabrication factors in the RAS method are interpreted as statistical estimates obtained by the method of instrumental variables. This enables the computation of asymptotic standard errors for the factors and the relative precision of the predicted technical coefficients. Furthermore, an adjustment cost minimization model to describe how a sector determines its substitution and fabrication factors is presented. The solutions of the model provide another rationale for the RAS method, and the associated Lagrangian multipliers can be useful for assessing structural constraints and structural change.     

Scale and structure in economic modelling

In this paper an attempt is made to put together, within the same model, the supply and the demand side of the economic process. This is done by integrating the progress attained in two fields which have traditionally been considered separate: the input-output approach and the macroeconometric final demand approach. The composition of each traditional macroeconomic variable, determined within the model, is analysed into the functional headings which are peculiar for each variable (family budgets headings for personal consumption expenditures, investing sectors for investments, I-O sectors for output and so on). We can then identify for each variable a scale component - absolute level of the aggregated variable - and a structure component - its inner composition - which are mutually consistent. Two types of applications of the same model are then compared: simulation, where the parametric set is used to obtain the dynamic path of a specific scenario; and integrated impact multiplier analysis where scale and structure effects are evaluated with reference to all the potential behaviour of the system.