制造业竞争力比较研究——基于浙江地区与国内外制造业的分析比较

制造业竞争力对于区域经济发展具有至关重要的支撑作用。通过建立MCI制造业竞争力指数模型量化比较发现，随着劳动力成本等要素制约加剧，浙江制造业竞争力和竞争优势近年来大幅弱化。加快实现创造驱动、人才驱动、技术驱动、改革驱动“四轮驱动”，加速提高劳动生产率，推进产业转型升级，提升产业核心竞争力，打造经济升级版，从而实现长期可持续增长，是今后很长一段时期内浙江经济的重大课题。     

A preliminary examination of the relationship between consumer attitude towards space travel and the development of innovative space tourism technology

With increasing global competition in service sectors, innovative technologies have radically changed the tourism industry, and to be successful innovative products/services must have clear, significant points of difference that are related to needs in the market place. Furthermore, changes in consumer perceptions that emanate from an innovation are central to its effective product and service design. Although for most of us space travel is still a faraway dream, it is in fact a future probability that will increasingly attract travellers who seek new vacation experiences, and as a result, sustain academic interest. Thus, in initiating space tourism for the purposes of recreation, leisure and knowledge enhancement, a preliminary estimation of potential global demand characteristics that are specific to consumer innovators for space travel needs to be undertaken prior to promotion of research and development. In this context, this paper investigates both consumer attitudes towards space travel by analysing the components of motivated consumer innovativeness and the interest that potential consumers have in developing space tourism technology innovations within Taiwan. Consumer innovativeness is complex and comprised four innovativeness types, namely, social, functional, hedonic and cognitive. As product/service innovation development has been relatively unexplored in the mature industry of tourism, many business managers would welcome an understanding of which vacation travellers are most likely to be the earliest buyers of such an exciting new product. With data collected from a sample of 354 Taiwanese, this research uses mediated regression to examine the influence of the four types of consumer innovativeness on consumer's attitudes and acceptance of a space tourism technology innovation, and the mediating role perceived novelty plays in the relationship. The findings indicate that only hedonic and social innovativeness are associated with improved consumer attitude and that novelty partially mediates the relationship for those two types of consumer innovativeness. The implications for theory and practice are discussed. Limitations and directions for future research are also addressed.     

中国货币条件指数构建及与经济增长的实证分析

货币条件指数作为反映一个国家货币政策松紧程度的指标,自1994年由加拿大银行首次提出后,引起了国际社会的普遍关注。本文选取1998年1季度～2011年3季度间共55个季度的实际利率、实际有效汇率、实际信贷规模缺口作为解释变量,选取实际产出与潜在产出之间的缺口作为被解释变量,使用单方程估计法,通过构造总需求曲线,利用最小二乘法计算各解释变量的权重,得出中国的实际货币条件指数。并通过分析对比中国汇率、利率、信贷规模变动与宏观经济增长之间的关系,验证中国实际货币条件指数对实体经济变动的解释能力。     

Assessing hospital system resilience to disaster events involving physical damage and Demand Surge

This paper investigates the effectiveness of formalized collaboration strategies through which patients can be transferred and resources, including staff, equipment and supplies, can be shared across hospitals in response to a disaster incident involving mass casualties and area-wide damage. Inflicted damage can affect hospital infrastructure and its supporting lifelines, thus impacting capacity and capability or, ultimately, services that are provided. Using a discrete event simulation framework and underlying open queuing network conceptualization involving patient flows through 9 critical units of each hospital, impacts on critical resources, physical spaces and demand are modeled and the hospital system's resilience to these hazard events is evaluated. Findings from numerical experiments on a case study involving multiple hospitals spaced over a large metropolitan region replicating a system similar to the Johns Hopkins Hospital System show the potential of strategies involving not only transfers and resource sharing, but also joint capacity enhancement alternatives to improve post-disaster emergency health care service delivery through joint action.     

Cross‐country asymmetries in monetary policy transmission: evidence from EMU members

This paper analyzes monetary policy asymmetries in EMU participating countries. In particular, we use a structural dynamic modelling approach to investigate asymmetric monetary transmission in Europe. Asymmetries are investigated in two different ways. First, we restrict the estimated structural models reflecting the monetary constraints each country faced during the EMS period. We obtain well‐behaved and comparable effects of monetary policy shocks. Second, efficiency frontiers for the selected EMU countries are estimated. In computing the optimal combinations of output gap and inflation volatility we use a weighted average of interest rate and exchange rate, i.e. the Monetary Condition Index (MCI), as a policy instrument. The impulse response analysis implemented with the MCI shows relatively small differences in the responses of the real economy to monetary policy shocks. Altogether the results suggest that, no matter which policy instrument is used, output gap and inflation respond to identical monetary shocks with a similar speed and movement, albeit with a different degree of effect.     

基于VAR的中国货币形势指数实证分析

本文根据1996～2007年我国短期实际利率、实际有效汇率和真实国内生产总值季度数据构建了我国近年来的货币形势指数,并运用VAR模型实证分析了我国货币形势指数比率。结果表明,汇率对产出变动的影响较大,而利率没有发挥应有的作用。因此,在当前我国宏观经济内外失衡的环境下,应以货币形势指数作为货币政策操作的参考指标,加快利率市场化进程,增强人民币汇率制度的灵活性。     

Alternative Monetary Policy Rules in the Turkish Economy Under an Inflation-Targeting Framework

This study analyzes alternative monetary-policy rules in Turkey under inflation targeting (IT) using a small-scale structural macroeconomic model. The alternatives are the Taylor rule, the monetary conditions index (MCI) rule under strict IT, and the MCI rule under flexible IT. Using the MCI rule under strict IT produces slightly better results than under flexible IT and, thus, is preferable. The results also indicate that the economy stabilizes much more quickly, and shows significantly less volatility, in the second alternative. Following the Taylor rule should definitely be avoided. However, in open economies, ignoring exchange rates when setting inflation targets is certainly not an optimal solution.     

音频采集和实时传输实现的研究

文章通过以软件方式实现的视频会议系统的介绍,通过简单音频设备提出了如何利用声卡来实现音频的实时采集、回放,并介绍了具体的实现方法和音频的传输以及关键技术。     

基于MCI视角的货币政策估计:以马来西亚为例

基于强调利率平价重要作用的货币状况指数(MCI)的视角,试图为开放型新兴市场经济估计一个最优货币政策模型,其目的是阐明内部和外部平衡的重要性和提供分析基础.通过估计利率和汇率对产出缺口的相关影响及实际利率和实际汇率的权重可以估计最优货币状况指数.用多种方法检验产出缺口的适度性,其被估计权重是1.6:1,它可以用来阐述货币政策的操作目标.     

开放经济条件下我国利率政策与汇率政策的矛盾与协调

利率和汇率作为两个重要的经济杠杆理应对一国的经济活动发挥不可替代的调节作用，然而，相当长一段时期以来，我国利率的市场化和汇率的非市场化使得二的调节作用大相径庭，跛足而行的利率和汇率政策使得矛盾也由此而生。如何协调二的矛盾也只能依靠市场化的力量和国家政策的调整，但MCI给了我们一些有益的启示。