中国国债发行规模影响因素的实证研究

基于VAR模型,并运用协整检验、方差分解、向量自回归误差修正模型的计量经济分析方法,对我国国债规模的影响因素进行实证分析.实证结果显示,我国国债发行规模与国内生产总值、财政赤字、国债还本付息额、居民储蓄之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,影响国债规模的主要因素是国内生产总值、居民储蓄、国债发行规模本身、财政赤字.     

开展地方国库现金管理的动因与模式选择研究—以宁夏为例

在当前流动性趋紧的形势下,开展地方国库现金管理有利于激活财政存量资金、增加地方财政收益,尤其是欠发达地区对实施国库现金管理的意愿日益高涨。本文探讨分析了开展地方国库现金管理的现实动因,认为现阶段宁夏回族自治区本级国库现金管理的模式应为“商业银行定期存款方式”,并通过Baumol扩展模型测算区级最佳库存现金余额。以期为开展地方国库现金管理提供有益参考。     

2011年上半年国际金融市场运行综述

2011年上半年,美元总体走弱;美元短期利率下降,欧元、英镑短期利率上升,日元短期利率基本走平;主要国家中长期国债收益率先升后降;欧美主要股指振荡走高。     

Degrees of tax indexation and nominal interest rates: Effects of inflation on incentives to save and invest

This paper examines the effects of inflation expectations on nominal interest rates, and incentives to save and invest under partial and complete tax indexation schemes. One would expect that a partially indexed structure would be better than a non-indexed system. However, this is not the case—it reduces the adverse effects of inflation on the incentives to save, but accentuates them on the incentives to invest. Moreover, a change from a non-indexed tax structure to a fully-indexed structure will, ceteris paribus, lead to lower equilibrium interest rates, whereas a switch to a partially indexed system will imply higher rates.

2010年1季度国际金融市场运行综述

一季度,受美国经济复苏的步伐较为稳固及希腊主权债务问题令投资者的避险需求上升等因素影响,美元对其他主要货币走强。美元、英镑短期利率上升,欧元、日元短期利率下降。美国中长期国债收益率呈“W”型走势,英国和德国中长期国债收益率下降,而日本中长期国债收益率上升。主要股指探底回升。     

ExpertLens: A system for eliciting opinions from a large pool of non-collocated experts with diverse knowledge

The complexity of policy decision-making raises the need to elicit opinions from large and heterogeneous groups of stakeholders with broad and diverse sets of expertise. Existing options for elicitation include small face-to-face panels of experts by using the Nominal Group Technique (NGT), large Delphi panels whose members do not interact with each other face-to-face, and crowdsourcing, which involves an open call for input issued to a large community of people. In an attempt to close the gap between the practical needs of policy makers and the methodological challenges associated with eliciting opinions of large, diverse, and distributed groups, we have developed a new online elicitation system and methodology called ExpertLens. By optimizing the direct interactions of NGT with the larger number of Delphi participants and the wisdom of “selected crowds,” our approach is designed to save on the costs associated with traditional expert panels, while increasing accuracy in elicitation by reducing the potential for group process losses that can occur in large, diverse, and non-collocated panels whose members interact via asynchronous online discussion boards. The ExpertLens approach is iterative, does not require participants to develop consensus, and determines what the group “thinks” by statistically analyzing data collected in all rounds of the elicitation. This paper describes the ExpertLens system and methodology, briefly discusses recent ExpertLens trials, provides conceptual arguments for why it is an appropriate model for eliciting expert opinions, illustrates its main components and analytics by using an infrastructure investment example, and discusses a research agenda for testing the underlying tenets of the ExpertLens approach.     

商业银行代理国库业务中的问题及其对策

长期以来,商业银行在办理国家预算收入的收纳和预算支出等代理国库业务中做了许多工作,为保证国家预算收支的顺利实现和国民经济发展做出了积极贡献。但是,近年来由于代理手续费低,商业银行受利润驱动,在国库代理业务中出现了人员配备不足、违规操作、延压税款、监管不力等问题,影响了国库业务的发展,应当采取相应措施加以完善。     

国库视角下的财政性存款问题研究

本文对我国财政性存款概念及其缴存管理的政策发展阶段进行了归纳,并对金融机构漏缴少缴财政性存款问题及其原因进行了分析,进而对现行财政性存款管理的风险进行探讨,同时,提出改进我国财政性存款缴存管理的途径。     

2012年8月国际金融市场运行综述

2012年8月,美元指数走低;主要货币短期利率小幅下降;主要发达国家中长期国债收益率先升后降;主要股指总体振荡走高。     

2014年1季度国际金融市场运行综述

2014年1季度,美元指数小幅下跌;美元、英镑、日元短期利率下降,欧元短期利率上升;主要国家中长期国债收益率下降;主要股指出现分化。