经济学家对剩余认识的分歧说明了什么

自魁奈提出"纯产品"学说以来,经济学家对剩余认识的分歧一直难以弥合,这是由他们对剩余研究的目的决定的,但万变不离其宗的是,研究剩余的来源或源泉都是为了给剩余的归属即剩余的占有找到更"合理"的出路,与剩余的真正来源无关.由他们所戴的理论有色眼镜所决定,经济学家把剩余的来源分为劳动说、创新说、不确定性说和监督说.劳动说体现的是社会公平正义,创新说注重的是激励,不确定性说强调了企业家的责任,监督说意在减少偷懒.只要我们不怀任何偏见,这些不同的学说就会为解决目前的经济发展与收入分配矛盾提供有效的思路和方法.     

Opinion dynamics and wisdom under conformity

We study a dynamic model of opinion formation in social networks. In our model, boundedly rational agents update opinions by averaging over their neighbors’ expressed opinions, but may misrepresent their own opinion by conforming or counter-conforming with their neighbors. We show that an agent׳s social influence on the long-run group opinion is increasing in network centrality and decreasing in conformity. Concerning efficiency of information aggregation or “wisdom” of the society, it turns out that misrepresentation of opinions need not undermine wisdom, but may even enhance it. Given the network, we provide the optimal distribution of conformity levels in the society and show which agents should be more conforming in order to increase wisdom.     

Does the Delphi process lead to increased accuracy in group-based judgmental forecasts or does it simply induce consensus amongst judgmental forecasters?

We investigate the relative impact of internal Delphi process factors - including panelists' degree of confidence, expertise, majority/minority positioning - and an external factor, richness of feedback - on opinion change and subsequent accuracy of judgmental forecasts. We found that panelists who had low confidence in their judgmental forecast and/or who were in a minority were more likely to change their opinion than those who were more confident and/or in a majority. The addition of rationales, or reasons, to the numeric feedback had little impact upon panelists' final forecasts, despite the quality of panelists' rationales being significantly positively correlated with accurate forecasts and thus of potential use to aid forecast improvement over Delphi rounds. Rather, the effect of rationales was similar to that of confidence: to pull panelists towards the majority opinion regardless of its correctness. We conclude that majority opinion is the strongest influence on panelists' opinion change in both the ‘standard’ Delphi, and Delphi-with-reasons. We make some suggestions for improved variants of the Delphi-with-reasons technique that should help reduce majority influence and thereby permit reasoned arguments to exert their proper pull on opinion change, resulting in forecast accuracy improvements over Delphi rounds.     

基于互联网大数据的CPI舆情指数构建与应用

研究目标：基于互联网大数据构建CPI舆情指数辅助预测CPI。研究方法：提出了一种构建CPI低频与高频舆情指数的统计方法,并通过选用2006年6月至2015年12月的数据验证了该方法的有效性。研究发现：相关关键词的搜索热度指标具有领先CPI的预测作用,依此建立的CPI舆情指数有助于改进CPI预测精度。研究创新：揭示了基于相关关键词的搜索热度指标与CPI的非线性关系,提出了一种基于门限回归的CPI低频舆情指数构建方法;使用动态因子模型估计出了CPI高频舆情指数。研究价值：预测CPI时可辅助利用基于大数据构建的CPI低频与高频舆情指数信息。     

网络舆论监督与中国行政腐败的预防治理

当前互联网在舆情反映和舆论监督方面开始实质性地发挥作用,在应对行政腐败的层面,体现出确保反腐独立、克服地方保护和升级民主法治三个特征。网络舆论监督对行政腐败的预防与治理发挥着积极的作用,但网络舆论监督也有它的缺陷,诸如网络信息的准确性无法核实和情绪性言论泛滥等较为突出的问题,都需要政府部门加强应对的主动性,最大化地发挥网络的积极功效。     

Analysing tax evasion dynamics via the Ising model

We develop a model of tax evasion based on the Ising model. We augment the model using an appropriate enforcement mechanism that may allow policy makers to curb tax evasion. With a certain probability tax evaders are subject to an audit. If they get caught they behave honestly for a certain number of periods. Simulating the model for a range of parameter combinations, we show that tax evasion may be controlled effectively by using punishment as an enforcement mechanism.     

Unique but integrated: The role of individuation and assimilation processes in teen opinion leadership

Opinion leaders propel the diffusion of innovation and exert a significant influence on the marketplace. This influence is especially pronounced during adolescence, a period marked by increasing reliance on peers and the emergence of a tension between two countervailing needs: assimilation and individuation. A survey of 1142 adolescents reveals that these developmental needs affect adolescent opinion leadership in the critical clothing market. Adolescent opinion leadership relies on a balance between desires for assimilation (i.e., centrality within the peer network) and individuation (i.e., need for uniqueness); adolescents' susceptibility to peers' normative influence and gender moderate these relationships. Adolescents who occupy central positions within their peer network tend to be opinion leaders, though only if they are not susceptible to normative influence. Position within the peer network is a key for girls, whereas need for uniqueness is a key for boys. These differences implicate different approaches for managers targeting adolescent males and females.     

中国开行地方政府债券的先决条件研究

是否允许地方政府发行债券是一个颇具争议的话题。本文通过运用宪政经济学和新公共管理理论的分析方法,对开行地方政府债券发行权利的先决条件进行了论述。结合目前中国实际,文章认为目前开行地方政府债券的条件尚不完全具备,并建议下一步推进政府债券的关键在于可行性建设。     

Lead users and the adoption and diffusion of new products: Insights from two extreme sports communities

Lead users are proposed as a valuable resource for marketers in terms of the (1) development, (2) adoption, and (3) diffusion of new products. We present the first consumer study to provide evidence that the latter two suggestions are justified. First, we find that lead users demonstrate stronger domain-specific innovativeness than more “ordinary” users. Second, lead users perceive new technologies as less “complex” and might therefore be better prepared to adopt them. Third, we find that lead users demonstrate stronger opinion leadership and weaker opinion seeking tendencies. Finally, we discuss the implications of our findings for the marketing of new products.