《难经》压力波参数初探

根据压力波理论，分析了《难经》脉状的参数，演绎了主要参数的特征曲线，这对推进中医切诊医术的现代化具有现实意义。     

Modelling the inflation process in transition economies: Empirical comparison of Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic

This paper starts from the observation that inflation in transition economies appears to be persistently high and volatile and attempts to provide some empirical characterisation of the inflation process in three such transition economies: Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. We first consider the role of monetary growth as a major causal factor for inflation in these economies, and argue that the evidence provides rather weak support for the causal relationship. We then propose a transition economy cost-plus model and estimate this using the equilibrium-correction modelling (ECM) strategy augmented by introduction of a number of transitory factors and changes in the internal structure of the real economy which we believe may have had a significant impact on inflation in these economies. We show that this approach enables us to account for long-run inflation in these economies from the early 1980s to the present despite the turbulence of the latter part of the sample period. Our results support wage and exchange rate based inflation policies.     

Contemporary Extensions of the Rasch Model

This paper will introduce, discuss and illustrate two contemporary extensions of theRasch model: the one parameter logistic model (Verhelst and Glas, 1995) and theMultidimensional Rasch model (Hoijtink et al., 1999). Using data with respect tothe measurement of schizotypy (Vollema and Hoijtink, 2000) the most importantfeatures of both models will be illustrated. For the one parameter logistic modelthese include: a (discrete) discrimination parameter for each item; a test for itembias; and, estimation of the location of a person on the (latent) trait that is beingmeasured. For the multidimensional Rasch model these include: specification ofthe model; and, model selection. All analyses presented in this paper can be executedusing either OPLM (Verhelst et al., 1995), TESTFACT (Wilson et al.,1984) or ConQuest (Wu et al., 1998). At the end of the paper some features ofmodels and software that have not been discussed will be summarized.     

Forecasting economic time series using flexible versus fixed specification and linear versus nonlinear econometric models

Nine macroeconomic variables are forecast in a real-time scenario using a variety of flexible specification, fixed specification, linear, and nonlinear econometric models. All models are allowed to evolve through time, and our analysis focuses on model selection and performance. In the context of real-time forecasts, flexible specification models (including linear autoregressive models with exogenous variables and nonlinear artificial neural networks) appear to offer a useful and viable alternative to less flexible fixed specification linear models for a subset of the economic variables which we examine, particularly at forecast horizons greater than 1-step ahead. We speculate that one reason for this result is that the economy is evolving (rather slowly) over time. This feature cannot easily be captured by fixed specification linear models, however, and manifests itself in the form of evolving coefficient estimates. We also provide additional evidence supporting the claim that models which ‘win’ based on one model selection criterion (say a squared error measure) do not necessarily win when an alternative selection criterion is used (say a confusion rate measure), thus highlighting the importance of the particular cost function which is used by forecasters and ‘end-users’ to evaluate their models. A wide variety of different model selection criteria and statistical tests are used to illustrate our findings.     

Lp空间上线性回归方程回归系数的估计

本文讨论了多元线性回归方程参数的L^p估计问题。首先采取消除方程中参数“。的技术，化参数估计为对回归系数的估计，然后进一步将问题转化为一个单目标数学规划模型，利用能自动搜索最优解的电脑软件，十分方便地求出规划模型的最优解。特别对一元回归方程，在消除参数a0后，还可以直接利用普通一元函数求极值的方法，求出回归系数的估计。     

Forecast combinations under structural break uncertainty

This paper proposes two new weighting schemes that average forecasts based on different estimation windows in order to account for possible structural change. The first scheme weights the forecasts according to the values of reversed ordered CUSUM (ROC) test statistics, while the second weighting method simply assigns heavier weights to forecasts that use more recent information. Simulation results show that, when structural breaks are present, forecasts based on the first weighting scheme outperform those based on a procedure that simply uses ROC tests to choose and forecast from a single post-break estimation window. Combination forecasts based on our second weighting scheme outperform equally weighted combination forecasts. An empirical application based on a NAIRU Phillips curve model for the G7 countries illustrates these findings, and also shows that combination forecasts can outperform the random walk forecasting model.     

Endogenous ranking and equilibrium Lorenz curve across (ex-ante) identical countries: A generalization

This paper proposes a symmetry-breaking model of trade with a finite number of identical countries and a continuum of tradeable consumption goods, which differ in their dependence on nontradeable intermediate inputs, “producer services”. Productivity of each country is endogenous due to country-specific external economies of scale in its service sector. It is shown that, in any stable equilibrium, the countries sort themselves into specializing in different sets of tradeable goods and that a strict ranking of countries in per capita income, TFP, the service sector share, and the capital–labor ratio emerge endogenously. Furthermore, the distribution of country shares, the Lorenz curve, is unique and analytically solvable in the limit, as the number of countries grows unbounded. Using this limit as an approximation allows us to study what determines the shape of distribution, perform various comparative statics and to evaluate the welfare effects of trade. In doing so, this paper extends the analysis of Matsuyama (Econometrica, 81:5 (September 2013), 2009–2031) for more general and flexible forms of scale economies. It turns out that the technique introduced in Matsuyama (Econometrica, 81:5 (September 2013), 2009–2031) is useful for the equilibrium characterization in this general case as well. Although some results of comparative statics and on welfare inevitably need to be modified, they change in ways that illuminate the underlying mechanism of symmetry-breaking.     

Structural breaks in the mean of dividend-price ratios: Implications of learning on stock return predictability

In their out-of-sample predictions of stock returns in the presence of structural breaks, Lettau and Van Nieuwerburgh (2008) implicitly assume that economic agents’ perception of the regime-specific mean for the dividend-price ratio is time-invariant within a regime. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and employ least squares learning with constant gain (or constant-gain learning) in estimating economic agents’ time-varying perception for the mean of dividend-price ratio. We obtain better out-of-sample predictions of stock returns than in Lettau and Van Nieuwerburgh (2008) for both the U.S. and Japanese stock markets. Our empirical results suggest that economic agents’ learning plays an important role in the dynamics of stock returns.     

分整阶数半参数估计的有限样本性质研究

随着对经济和金融时间序列长记忆性的研究,分整阶数估计已成为当前理论研究的焦点问题。以对数周期图回归和局部Whittle方法为代表的半参数分整阶数估计方法在实践中得到广泛应用,但对这两类半参数估计方法的有限样本性质的比较则鲜有涉及,影响了在实践中对估计方法的选择。利用蒙特卡洛模拟方法,在不同数据产生的过程下,这两种半参数估计方法有限样本性质的研究结果表明：在ARFIMA(0, d, 0)过程下,LW类估计量具有较好的小样本性质;在平稳ARFIMA(1, d, 0)过程下,本文建议的QGPH估计量的有限样本性质要优于其他对数周期图估计量;在非平稳过程下,MGPH的偏差最小。     

快速全站仪三角高程测量方法及应用

传统三角高程测量由于受仪器高和棱镜高量取误差的影响,精度较低。文章介绍了两种较传统三角高程测量更为简易且高精度的方法,分别是中间法和设定参数法。这两种方法无需量取仪器高和棱镜高,减少了三角高程测量的误差来源,提高了观测的精度。