Victory margins and the paradox of voting

This paper addresses a simple question: why do people vote? Though simple, this question remains unanswered despite the considerable attention it has received. In this paper, I show that purely rational–instrumental factors explain a large fraction of turnout variations, provided that the effect of the margin of victory on implemented policy is considered. I extend Myerson's models of elections based on Poisson games, and show that, when platforms are responsive to vote shares, the predictions of the model become consistent with several stylized facts, including the secular fall in turnout rates in the US.     

精品课程建设漫谈

精品课程要求具有一流教师队伍、一流教学内容、一流教学方法、一流教材、一流放学管理等特点。精品课程建设，就是以现代教育思想为先导，以建设相应层次的、具有较强针对性和适用性的优秀教材为核心，以提高师资队伍素质为前提，以教学内容现代化为基础，以现代信息技术手段为平台，以科学的管理体制为保障。是集观念、师资、内容、技术、方法、制度于一身的整体建设。     

Estimating the Size of a Criminal Population from Police Records Using the Truncated Poisson Regression Model

The truncated Poisson regression model is used to arrive at point and interval estimates of the size of two offender populations, i.e. drunk drivers and persons who illegally possess firearms. The dependent capture–recapture variables are constructed from Dutch police records and are counts of individual arrests for both violations. The population size estimates are derived assuming that each count is a realization of a Poisson distribution, and that the Poisson parameters are related to covariates through the truncated Poisson regression model. These assumptions are discussed in detail, and the tenability of the second assumption is assessed by evaluating the marginal residuals and performing tests on overdispersion. For the firearms example, the second assumption seems to hold well, but for the drunk drivers example there is some overdispersion. It is concluded that the method is useful, provided it is used with care.     

积分循环赛在学校篮球竞赛中的应用研究

为了在学校篮球竞赛中引入积分循环赛，文章针对棋类积分编排存在的三个方面问题，通过采用每轮比赛排名作为配对排序的条件，并对棋类积分编排方法进行了一定的简化移植，经过多次试验性编排，运用电子表格技术设计出了一整套篮球积分编排方法。这种方法可实际运用于篮球积分循环赛的手工编排，并能为实现计算机篮球积分编排提供理论依据。     

Modelling soccer matches using bivariate discrete distributions with general dependence structure

In this paper copulas are used to generate bivariate discrete distributions. These distributions are fitted to soccer data from the English Premier League. An interesting aspect of these data is that the primary variable of interest, the discrete pair shots-for and shots-against, exhibits negative dependence; thus, in particular, we apply bivariate Poisson-related distributions that allow such dependence. The paper focuses on Archimedian copulas, for which the dependence structure is fully determined by a one-dimensional projection that is invariant under marginal transformations. Diagnostic plots for copula fit based on this projection are adapted to deal with discrete variables. Covariates relating to within-match contributions such as numbers of passes and tackles are introduced to explain variability in shot outcomes. The results of this analysis would appear to support the notion that playing the 'beautiful game' is an effective strategy—more passes and crosses contribute to more effective play and more shots on the goal.     

Valuing Food Store Access: Policy Implications for the Food Stamp Program

Food stamp recipients may lack access to larger stores, reducing the availability of nutritious food. Reliance on smaller stores may have undesirable impacts. Policy alternatives include limiting food stamp redemption to larger stores and subsidizing store development. I estimate that limiting redemption to supermarkets and grocery stores, or supermarkets alone, results in losses ranging from $499.2 million to $1.05 billion, or $1.17 billion to $2.44 billion (respectively) annual loss in food stamp recipient welfare nationwide. The impact of improving access is also significant, ranging from $333.6 million to $931.2 million.     

Asymptotically optimal estimation of smooth functionals for interval censoring, part 1

Estimation in the interval censoring model is considered. A class of smooth functionals is introduced, of which the mean is an example. The asymptotic information lower bound for such functionals can be represented as an inner product of two functions. In case 1, i.e. one observation time per unobservable event time, both functions can be given explicitly. We mainly consider case 2, with two observation times for each unobservable event time, in the situation that the observation times can not become arbitrarily close to each other. For case 2, one of the functions in the inner product can only be given implicitly as solution to a Fredholm integral equation. We study properties of this solution and, in a sequel to this paper, prove that the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of the functional asymptotically reaches the information lower bound.     

完善城市整体功能是旧城改造的方向

城市的更新、改造是社会发展的必然 ,如何通过现状调查、分析、研讨 ,找出城市建设的症结 ,使城市趋于完美是城市建设者的历史使命。但现实中 ,片面追求经济效益 ,发旧城改造之财 ,只能使城市变成“崭新的旧城” ,只有按城市发展的固有规律去完善城市的整体功能才是旧城改造的发展方向。     

Polyhedral Combinatorics in Combinatorial Optimization

Polyhedral combinatorics is a subarea of combinatorial optimization of increasing practical importance. It deals with the application of the theory of linear systems and linear algebra to combinatorial problems. The paper is not intended as a survey on polyhedral combinatorics but it reviews some of the main concepts and proof techniques.     

中期财务报告准则的比较研究

为提高上市公司会计信息质量，更好地保护投资者利益，2001年11月，财政部发布了《企业会计准则——中期财务报告》。鉴于美国是实行中期报告制度最早的国家，其制度也相对完善，本文拟将我国中期财务报准则同美国的相关准则及国际会计准则IAS34作粗浅的比较分析。通过比较分析，借鉴国外准则之长处，有利于推动我国中期报告理论和实务的发展。