Financial Integration in Asset and Liability Holdings in East Asia

In this article, we examine the evolution of intra-East Asian financial integration from 2001 to 2013. Most existing studies on this topic look primarily at asset holdings; we examine liability holdings as well. Using the International Monetary Fund’s Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey data for equities, long-term debt, and short-term debt, our analysis generally supports the conventional wisdom that East Asian countries are more financially integrated with global financial centers than they are with each other. This is true for both asset holdings and liabilities and is confirmed by an econometric analysis based on financial gravity equations. However, the gap between global integration and regional integration has narrowed for asset holdings over time but not for liability holdings. The results of additional econometric analysis indicate that diversification of liability holdings can mitigate financial instability due to global financial shocks. More precisely, diversification was associated with smaller exchange rate depreciation during the quantitative easing taper tantrum of 2013. These results point to a possible benefit from strengthening regional financial integration. Deeper regional integration would reduce dependence on global financial markets for funding and hence vulnerability to global shocks.     

PREDICTING NEXT TRADING DAY CLOSING PRICE OF QATAR EXCHANGE INDEX USING TECHNICAL INDICATORS AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

Accurate prediction of stock market price is of great importance to many stakeholders. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have shown robust capability in predicting stock price return, future stock price and the direction of stock market movement. The major aim of this study is to predict the next trading day closing price of the Qatar Exchange (QE) Index using historical data from 3 January 2010 to 31 December 2012. A multilayer perceptron ANN architecture was used as a prediction model with 10 market technical indicators as input variables. The experimental results indicate that ANNs are an effective modelling technique for predicting the QE Index with high accuracy, outperforming the well‐established autoregressive integrated moving average models. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to use ANNs to predict the QE Index, and its performance results are comparable to, and sometimes better than, many stock market predictions reported in the literature. The ANN model also revealed that the weighted and simple moving averages are the most important technical indicators in predicting the QE Index, and the accumulation/distribution oscillator is the least important such indicator. The analysis results also indicated that the ANNs are resilient to stock market volatility. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling European sovereign bond yields with international portfolio effects

This paper proposes a portfolio choice model with two countries to evaluate the specific role of volatility and co-volatility risks in the formation of long-term European interest rates over the crisis and post-crisis periods with an active role of the European Central Bank. Long-term equilibrium rates depend crucially on the covariances between international bond yields anticipated by investors. Positively anticipated covariances amplify the phenomena of fundamental contagions related to the degradations of public finance and solvency of sovereign debt issuer, while negatively anticipated covariances amplify the phenomena of Flight-to-quality. The two-step econometric approach over the period January 2006 to September 2016 analyses 21 European market pairs in a bivariate GARCH framework. Empirical results show that the decline in German and French long-term rates from March 2011 is partially due to the decrease in both risk premium and covariances with periphery countries. These declines actually amplify the mechanisms of Flight-to-quality. Finally, a lower sensitivity of rate to volatility and co-volatility risks during the crisis period gives credit to the hypothesis of a occasional fragmentation of the European sovereign bond markets (De Santis and Stein, 2016, Ehrmann and Fratzscher, 2017).     

Does US quantitative easing affect exchange rate pass‐through in China?

In this paper, we show theoretically and empirically that the US quantitative easing (QE ) policy results in lower exchange rate pass‐through into the destination prices of Chinese exporters. In addition, the more the exchange rate in the export destination appreciates than the Chinese yuan, the stronger this effect becomes. Our model combines various marginal effects of QE policy on the destinations of Chinese exporters and variable markups of export firms due to strategic complementarities. The model predicts that the impact of US QE policy on the pass‐through of Chinese exporters depends on its spillover on the exchange rate between China and the export destination of different firms. We provide strong support for the model predictions using Chinese firm‐product‐level data with information on export destinations. The baseline result and the heterogeneity we find in the response of exchange rate pass‐through of Chinese exporters to US QE policy remain robust to alternative measures of samples and controls.     

The time-varying relationship between credit spreads and employment growth

After the global financial crisis, several central banks introduced unconventional monetary policies, such as quantitative easing (QE). If QE increases asset prices, but does not boost the real economy to the same extent, the relationship between credit spreads and employment growth will weaken. This study investigates this issue for the U.S. in a moving-windows framework. Our results suggest that the link between credit spreads and employment growth is lower during bubbles and recessions. We also find that the relationship weakened after the Fed introduced QE.     

美联储量化宽松货币政策正常化与人民币汇率变动——基于时变参数向量自相关模型的研究

2015年后,随着量化宽松货币政策正常化和人民币汇率进入双向波动新常态,美国货币政策对人民币汇率的外溢效应日益显著。通过构建时变参数向量自相关模型对2008-2018年美联储量化宽松货币政策的实施和退出对人民币汇率的溢出效应进行研究,结果表明：美联储加息在滞后一季度作用人民币兑美元先升值后贬值,加息通过中美利差、产出差、货币供给之差分别作用于人民币兑美元贬值、升值和升值,利差渠道是主要作用渠道;美联储资产负债表扩张和缩减分别带来人民币汇率的升值和贬值,且扩张的升值影响大于缩减的贬值影响;美联储资产负债表和利率政策有一定替代性,替代关系存在明显的结构效应;美联储资产负债表的扩张和缩减分别带来中国银行间市场利率的下降和回升,两国利率表现出一定联动性。     

美国第二轮量化宽松政策实效分析

本文对美国第二轮量化宽松政策实效进行分析,认为总体上该政策取得了一定的成效,表现在一些部门投资扩大,耐用消费品支出增加,股市出现价格指数上升趋势。但是,房地产市场复苏缓慢,建筑投资依然低迷;工薪收入增额下降和较高失业率的存在,以及对未来经济前景的信心不足,使得个人消费支出难以迅速扩大。此外,该政策推动了国家债务规模进一步扩大,政府信用等级下降,投资者风险增大,这些因素反过来进一步使得投资者信心不足,就业岗位创造艰难,GDP增长疲软。该政策虽使金融市场流动性增加,但促进投资、刺激消费的两大目标并未充分实现。     

美国二次量化宽松货币政策研究

2010年11月3日，美联储第二轮量化宽松政策（QE2）正式启动。其主要内容为在维持0-0．25％利率水平条件下，从当日起至2011年6月份前，每月购买750亿美元的长期国债，总购买量为6000亿美元。此举意在降低长期利率，提高通胀预期，降低失业率，促进美国经济尽快复苏。本文主要分析QE2对美国的作用和对中国的影响，并从对冲流动性角度分析中国应对量化宽松政策应采取的措施。     

美联储量化宽松货币政策退出对我国跨境资金流动的影响分析

本文在回顾美国历次量化宽松货币政策的实施情况及未来可能的退出步骤的基础上,研究发现我国外汇资金净流入受美国量化宽松货币政策影响较大。针对美联储量化宽松货币政策退出产生的影响,本文提出了相关政策建议。     

美联储量化宽松货币政策实施效果评估与现实借鉴

2008～2011年,美联储推出的两轮量化宽松货币政策(QE)实施效果与预期有较大落差。基于后凯恩斯主义的内生货币理论,由于货币供给来源于经济体的内生需求,因而中央银行无法外生控制货币供应量,也无法简单地通过量化宽松政策刺激银行体系扩大信贷投放,以达到对内提升需求、扩大就业的政策目标,而对外的货币贬值也不必然能有效改善贸易逆差。中国调控经济、应对危机应该弱化汇率制度对国内政策的限制,完善信贷的内生创造机制,有效发挥政府与市场的互动机制确保就业。