中国股票市场风险和收益风格效应的非参数检验

本文利用Kendall协同系数检验考察我国股票市场风险和收益的风格效应。通过实证研究首次发现各风格指数的收益率、总风险及指数特有风险均具有明显的分层结构,风格效应显著。对影响风险和收益的风格因素进行的分析表明:股票风险受规模因素的影响十分明显;而股票回报率受价值因素的影响比较显著,受规模因素的影响不明显。并进一步用Spearman相关系数考察了风险与收益之间的秩相关性。本文研究结果对资产配置和风险监管等问题具有参考价值。     

融入全球化的中国：世界生产贸易大逆转及其原因剖析

16世纪以后，以中国为代表的东方文明和西方文明出现分野，东方的科学技术越来越落后子西方，历史称之为“李约瑟之迷”，进入21世纪后，中国正在以前所未有的速度走出这个迷团。2011年，中国制造业产值为2．05万亿美元，而美国制造业为1．78万亿美元，首次超过美国成为全球第一，贸易也是如此，2012年中国货物进出口总额38670亿美元，美国为38628亿美元，也已经超过美国成为世界第一。分析这个大逆转的厚因，一是从体制上解放了了生产力，社会主义市场经济体制是人类社会主义伟大实践的创举；二是对外开放；三是坚定不移地贯彻了科学技术是第一生产力的伟大国策；四是融入了了全球的货币体系。     

Short-term overreaction to specific events: Evidence from an emerging market

This paper investigates the short-term overreaction to specific events and whether stock prices are predictable in the Egyptian stock exchange (EGX). We find evidence of the short-term overreaction in the EGX. Losers (“bad news” portfolios) significantly outperform winners (“good news” portfolios) and investors can earn abnormal return by selling the winners and buying losers. Terrorist attacks have negative and significant abnormal returns for three days post event followed by price reversals on day four post event. Whereas, the tensions in the Middle East region have a negative and significant abnormal returns on event day followed by price reversals on day one post event. Moreover, the formation of a new government has no effect on the average abnormal returns post event in the EGX. The results also show that small firms tend to have greater price reversals compared to large firms. Overall, our results provide evidence of the leakage of information in the EGX.     

The long-run reversal in the long run: Insights from two centuries of international equity returns

We perform the most comprehensive test of long-term reversal in national equity indices ever done. Having examined data from 71 countries for the years 1830 through 2019, we demonstrate a strong reversal pattern: the past long-term return negatively predicts future performance. The phenomenon is not subsumed by other established cross-sectional return patterns, including the value effect. The long-term reversal is robust to many considerations but highly unstable through time. Finally, our findings support the overreaction explanation of this anomaly.     

基于K-S检验与距离相关分析的网络借贷信用评价指标体系构建

网络借贷作为一种新型互联网金融模式,提升了金融资源使用效率,缓解了小企业融资难的困局。构建合理的网络借贷信用评价指标体系,从而对网络借贷的潜在风险及时甄别与预防,对互联网金融健康持续发展意义重大。本文根据K-S检验与距离相关分析相结合,筛选对借款客户违约状态甄别能力强的指标,建立了网络借贷信用评价指标体系,通过P2P网络借贷(peer to peer lending,个人对个人借贷)平台LendingClub交易数据进行实证研究,结果表明:不仅借款金额、借款利率等借款标的特征对借贷者违约具有显著相关性,借款者年龄等个人特征、借款者年收入等财务特征以及借款者违约次数等信用特征均对借贷者违约风险产生显著影响。投资者在出借资金时,往往青睐于已婚、年龄适中、具有一定工作经历、历史违约次数较少的借款人。因此,风险监管部门应构建网络借贷违约风险评估模型,对P2P平台进行风险监测,同时建立关键信息共享机制,融合多源数据,明确审查范围,实现P2P网络借贷行业健康有序发展。     

Hierarchies and entrepreneurship

We establish a correlation between the hierarchical structure of a firm and the likelihood of business creation among its former employees, using a sample of 16 million observations of Swedish workers and a novel proxy for hierarchies based on occupation data. Conditional on firm size and many other variables, employees in firms with more layers are less likely to enter entrepreneurship, to become self-employed, and to switch to another employer. The effects of layers are much stronger for business creation than for job-switching and they are stronger for entrepreneurship than for self-employment. We discuss two potential explanations for the distinctive hierarchy effect we find. Part of the effect could be to be due to preference sorting by employees, and part due to employees in firms with fewer layers having a broader range of skills. One test showing that the probability of entrepreneurship increases with their prior rank in an organization is consistent with ability sorting and inconsistent with preference sorting.     

The Expiration Effects of Stock-Index Derivatives: Empirical Evidence from the Taiwan Futures Exchange

Five index derivatives with the same expiration days, settlement days, and settlement systems have been consecutively traded on the Taiwan Futures Exchange (TAIFEX) since 1998. This paper examines the expiration effects of TAIFEX index derivatives on the underlying stock market between 1998 and 2002. Our empirical findings show no significant expiration effects on the expiration day, but evidence demonstrates that expiration effects have strengthened as more relative index derivatives are listed on the TAIFEX. Meanwhile, the expiration effects seem to shift to the opening of the settlement day. In general, the expiration effects in Taiwan are not as significant as those in U.S. markets but are stronger than those in the Hong Kong market. The special settlement procedures adopted by the TAIFEX may account for the difference.     

Efficient rank tests for semiparametric competing risk models

We consider a semiparametric competing risk model given by k independent survival times. The paper offers an asymptotic treatment of tests for the semiparametric null hypothesis of equality of the underlying risks. It turns out that modified rank tests are asymptotically efficient for certain semiparametric submodels, where the baseline hazard is a nuisance parameter. In addition, the asymptotic relative efficiency of the present tests is derived. A comparison of asymptotic power functions can then be used to classify various tests proposed earlier in the literature. For instance a chi-square type test is efficient for proportional hazards. Data driven tests of likelihood ratio type are proposed for cones of alternatives. We will consider certain stochastically increasing alternatives as a special example. The paper shows how the concept of local asymptotic normality of Le Cam works for hazard oriented models.     

Determinacy in the Linear Model: Gauss to Bose and Koopmans

Gauss showed that least squares fails to produce a unique solution only when the problem is indeterminate. This note considers his argument and the notion of indeterminacy underlying it. It also relates the argument to twentieth-century discussions of estimability and identifiability.     

Ratio Analysis Using Rank Transformation

This paper presents an alternate method for transforming financial ratios. Ratios are ranked and scaled into a uniform distribution with boundaries between 0 and 1. Conceptually, we suggest that this method solves a number of methodological problems associated with ratios, including constrained choice of regression models, ratio outliers, negative ratios, and non-normal distributions. Scaled ranks of financial ratios are also conceptually appealing because they appear to capture comparative ordinal data about cross-sectional relationships between firms.The study empirically tests scaled rank transformations by examining the association of the transformations with stock returns. Results show that models using relative ranked accounting ratios have more explanatory and predictive power than untransformed, log-transformed and square-root transformed ratios.