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1.
The main objective of this paper is to use the Markov regime‐switching modelling framework to describe and analyse the credibility of a number of countries participating in the European Monetary System during 1980–1998. Our credibility indicator, based on Hughes Hallet et al.'s (1997) methodology, is subject to discrete regime shifts and is made dependent on macroeconomic fundamentals. We carry out extensive testing to assess the specification of the Markov regime‐switching model and the potential existence of permanent breaks. A contribution of our paper is the specification of a multivariate Markov switching model that allows us to examine whether macroeconomic variables have asymmetric effects on credibility. Another contribution is the specification of a regime‐switching model with time‐varying transition probabilities, which enables us to determine whether changes in macroeconomic variables can trigger switches between the low and high credibility regimes. We find strong evidence of regime switching behaviour in all countries. Both the level of credibility and the transition probabilities display an asymmetric response to changes in macroeconomic variables, with the stance of fiscal policy exerting the most systematic influence in all countries. 相似文献
2.
UNEMPLOYMENT, HYSTERESIS AND TRANSITION 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
In this paper, we quantify the degree of persistence in the unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. Initially, we work with the concept of linear ‘Hysteresis’ as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment as in most empirical research on this area. Given that this is potentially a narrow definition, we also take into account the existence of structural breaks and nonlinear dynamics in unemployment. Finally, we examine whether CEECs' unemployment presents features of multiple equilibria, that is, if it remains locked into a new level whenever some structural change or sufficiently large shock occurs. Our findings show that, in general, we can reject the unit‐root hypothesis after controlling for structural changes and business‐cycle effects, but we can observe the presence of a high and low unemployment equilibria. The speed of adjustment is faster for CEECs than the EU, although CEECs tend to move more frequently between equilibria. 相似文献
3.
纽约股票市场对中国A股市场的影响 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
首先,本文考察了纽约股市波动对中国A股市场的影响。一般认为,中国的A股市场由于严格的资本控制而免受外国影响。但是,通过月度、每周、每日的样本数据(1992年到2004年),经过季节性调整和汇率变动调整后,我们发现上海和深圳A股市场的变动与美国股票价格指数变动相一致。其次,我们考察国家贝塔值(country beta)在马尔可夫转换误差修正模型中的动态关系。对中国市场来说,国家贝塔值和错误纠正项的重要性紧密相连。在东亚金融危机之前,美国市场对中国A股市场的影响普遍存在,而东亚金融危机产生后,则是通过国家贝塔值来影响中国股市的收益。 相似文献
4.
Björn Nykvist Author Vitae Lorraine Whitmarsh Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2008,75(9):1373-1387
A wide range of intractable problems such as polluting emissions, noise, accidents, resource depletion, and inaccessibility of amenities are associated with the current transport regime. Given the slow movement towards a more sustainable mobility system, more radical, systemic innovation - a ‘transition’ - is required. Broadly speaking, this may be achieved via three routes: technological change, modal shift, and reduced travel demand. Drawing on concepts from the transitions literature (e.g., [Geels, F.W.: Technological Transitions and System Innovations: A Co-evolutionary and Socio-Technical Analysis, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2005.]), we conceptualise each of these routes as a bundle of niche activities within an Area of Innovation, deviating to differing degrees from the current mobility ‘regime’. We present empirical evidence and indications of ongoing development of niches in these three areas within the UK and Sweden, and explore processes of co-evolution, divergence and tension within and between niches. Findings indicate recent market penetration of novel transport technologies, more advanced than modal shift or demand management activities; however, different transport technologies are more successful in each country. We also identify examples of a close relationship between development of radical vehicle/fuel technologies and provision of mobility services; and information technology as a driver in all three areas of innovation. We conclude that future innovation in transport depends on diversity, hybridisation, and co-evolution of niches. Finally, policy implications are discussed. 相似文献
5.
John Baffoe-Bonnie 《Empirical Economics》2003,28(3):461-478
Recent application of the switching regression model to allocate workers into the primary and secondary labor markets is
considered to be the best solution to the classification problem of the empirical testing of the dual labor market theory.
In such models, normality of the error terms is assumed. This paper adopts the switching regression model to test the dual
labor market theory by assuming different distributions of the error terms. The test results strongly support the dual labor
market theory regardless of the assumption one makes about the error terms. However, the results indicate that different distribution
can lead to different percentage distributions of workers in the two segments. In particular, the normal distribution generates
more workers in the primary segment than the non-normal distributions. Therefore, care must be taken not to generalize the
type of industries or occupations that fall under the primary and secondary segments.
First version received: October 2000/Final version received: March 2002
RID="*"
ID="*" I would like to thank Kevin Lang, Robert Marshall, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments. I am grateful
for comments received from the session participants of the Western Economic Association International Conference, San Francisco,
CA, June 28–July 2, 1996, and the Midwest Economic Association Conference, Kansas City, 1997. I thank George Bonney, the Chief
Statistician of Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia for his comments. Any remaining errors are my responsibility. I gratefully
acknowledge financial support from Penn State Research and Development Grant, 1995. 相似文献
6.
股票市场收益率波动长记忆性的分解及实证研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
目前股票市场长记忆性检验和建模方法,不能很好地消除短期记忆的影响,针对这一问题,本文提出寻找序列的突变点,通过将序列分解为只包含长记忆性部分和不包含长记忆性部分的序列分解技术,来排除短期记忆的影响。对上证指数和深圳成分指数收益率波动的长记忆性进行实证研究发现,将序列分解以后进行长记忆性检验,不仅可以得出长记忆性检验更为精确的结论,同时可以检验序列分解过程的效果。 相似文献
7.
Tetsuo Ono 《Economic Theory》2003,22(1):141-168
Summary. The purpose of this paper is to consider environmental taxation which would control emissions of firms in a model of growth
cycles. In the model presented below, the economy may experience two phases of growth and environmental quality: “the no-innovation
growth regime” and “the innovation-led growth regime”. Aggregate capital and environmental quality remain constant in the
no-innovation growth regime, while they perpetually increase in the innovation-led growth regime. The paper shows that the
tax plays a key role in determining whether the economy stably converges to one of the two regimes or fluctuates permanently
between them. It also shows that there is a critical level of the tax and that the economy obtains higher growth rates of
capital and environmental quality by raising (or reducing) the tax if the initial tax is below (or above) the critical level.
Received: April 2, 2001; revised version: March 21, 2002
RID="*"
ID="*" This research reported here was conducted within the research project “Project on Intergenerational Equity” at Institute
of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. I am deeply grateful to an anonymous referee for his or her insightful comments,
which greatly improved the paper. I also thank Hiroshi Honda, Yasuo Maeda, Yuji Nakayama, and participants in workshops at
Hitotsubashi University, Kyoto University, Nagoya University, Osaka University, University of Tsukuba, Yokohama National University,
and University of Tokyo for their valuable comments and suggestions. Any remaining errors are mine. 相似文献
8.
Hans-Martin Krolzig Massimiliano Marcellino Grayham E. Mizon 《Empirical Economics》2002,27(2):233-254
There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. In this
paper we present a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of part of the UK labour market since the mid
1960s. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model in which some parameters change according to the
phase of the business cycle. Output, employment, labour supply and real earnings are found to have a common cyclical component.
The long run dynamics are characterized by one cointegrating vector relating unemployment to trend-adjusted real wages and
output. Despite there having been many changes affecting this sector of the UK economy, the Markov-switching vector-equilibrium-correction
model with three regimes (representing recession, normal growth, and high growth) provides a good characterization of the
sample data, and performs well relative to alternative linear and non-linear models. The results of an impulse-response analysis
highlight the dangers of using VARs when the constancy of the estimated coefficients has not been established, and demonstrate
the advantages of generating regime dependent responses.
First Version Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: August 2001 相似文献
9.
合作主义:中国福利制度框架的重构 总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13
合作主义 (corporatism)或称三方伙伴合作的程度在当代发达国家的经济制度和福利制度中是一个值得关注的问题。它与几乎所有工业化国家的社会保障制度相生相伴 ,相互依存 ,成为一枚硬币的两个侧面 ;它是现代文明国家发展进程中一个不可逾越的历史阶段 ,是现代社会保障制度与现代社会福利制度的结构中一种不可或缺的要素。在社会保障制度设计上我们应该有一个理性的预期 ,使之充分体现着我们价值观的追求 ,利用“后发国家”的优势和我国独特的政治优势 ,以避免当代西方福利国家中出现的问题 ;我国在进行经济制度的转型过程中不能忽略福利制度的转型 ,我国新工会法的颁布客观上为树立现代社会保障和社会福利制度法律框架的第一个支柱打下了桩基 相似文献
10.
发展中国家的货币错配与汇率制度选择困境 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
陈建斌 《广东金融学院学报》2006,21(5):44-50
货币错配是诱发发展中国家货币金融危机的一个重要因素,也加大了危机的解决成本。货币错配问题的形成是内外因素双重作用的结果,长期实行的“软”钉住汇率制度是其中的一个重要原因。发展中国家普遍遇到了货币错配与汇率制度选择的两难困境,僵硬的汇率制度为货币错配风险的累积提供了正向激励,加深了货币错配,货币错配程度的加深强化了汇率制度的“浮动恐惧”,必须采取有效措施走出这个困境。 相似文献