Sampling equilibrium, with an application to strategic voting

We suggest an equilibrium concept for a strategic model with a large number of players in which each player observes the actions of only a small number of the other players. The concept fits well situations in which each player treats his sample as a prediction of the distribution of actions in the entire population, and responds optimally to this prediction. We apply the concept to a strategic voting model and investigate the conditions under which a centrist candidate can win the popular vote although his strength in the population is smaller than the strengths of the right and left candidates.     

基于谱分析的连续加工过程检验批量的确定

在连续加工过程中 ,合理地确定检验批量 ,不仅可以反映加工过程的稳定性 ,而且也是确定抽样检验方案及检验频次的基础。本文主要利用时间序列的谱分析方法对连续加工过程的质量检测数据进行周期划分 ,从而确定抽样检验的批量 ,并根据周期分析结果 ,指出了导致加工质量产生波动的一些原因。     

Forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall with mixed data sampling

I propose applying the Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) framework to forecast Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected shortfall (ES). The new methods exploit the serial dependence on short-horizon returns to directly forecast the tail dynamics of the desired horizon. I perform a comprehensive comparison of out-of-sample VaR and ES forecasts with established models for a wide range of financial assets and backtests. The MIDAS-based models significantly outperform traditional GARCH-based forecasts and alternative conditional quantile specifications, especially in terms of multi-day forecast horizons. My analysis advocates models that feature asymmetric conditional quantiles and the use of the Asymmetric Laplace density to jointly estimate VaR and ES.     

Auditor Expertise and the Estimation of Dollar Error in Accounts

A major task that auditors undertake in formulating their audit opinion is to estimate the dollar error that might exist in accounts in light of their evaluation of internal control strengths and weaknesses. The research that has been undertaken to evaluate the quality of auditor performance on this task, however, has produced mixed results. The current study tries to overcome some theoretical limitations and measurement limitations that have undermined prior studies. Forty practising auditors rated their abilities on fourteen characteristics derived from a model of expertise. They then undertook an experiment where they judged the extent of dollar error that might exist in the inventories of a manufacturing company. They based their judgments on working papers provided to them that contained, among other information, an evaluation of the company's internal control system. An estimate of the 'true' dollar error in the inventories was calculated using a program that simulated the company's internal control and accounting system. This estimate was then used to calculate the accuracy of the auditors' judgments. Their ratings on the expertise characteristics were not related to their judgment accuracy. Their ratings were related, however, to their confidence in their judgment accuracy. Auditors who considered themselves more expert at the task were more confident in their judgment accuracy but they were, in fact, no more accurate than auditors who considered themselves to be less expert at the task.     

直接数字频率合成技术实现调频

本文阐述了ＤＤＳ的基本原理，语音信号的采样，如何用ＤＤＳ实现调频，并提供了试验结果。     

统计理论在木片抽样方案中的应用

介绍了木片取样的系统抽样方案,经验抽样方案和概率抽样方案,通过分析系统取样方案中含水率、规格片、朽木和树皮等检验项目的历史统计,提出含水率,规格片和树皮都服从近似正态分布的规律,并在此基础上预设了含水率的允差。     

Sampling,discounts or pay-what-you-want: Two field experiments

Free sampling and price discounts are important, popular promotional tools used to attract new customers by reducing their risk of trial. The authors investigate pay-what-you-want (PWYW) as an alternative promotional tool to free sampling and price discounts in two field experiments. The authors find significant differences in perceived promotional characteristics and relevant performance measures, such as trial and repeat purchases by new customers. The entertaining and innovative character of PWYW induces many people to try it. PWYW may yield a higher repeat purchase rate of new customers, and sellers using PWYW benefit from higher word-of-mouth behavior. Finally, PWYW yields the highest promotional revenues.     

中频接收机数字化设计中的几个关键问题

本文以短波数字化中频接收机为例，讨论中频数字化接收机设计的几个关键问题，包括收机前端增益的确定、数字和模拟AGC门限的选取、二中频频率与取样率的选择、以及接收机信噪比（SNR）的核算。     

Mixed-frequency approaches to nowcasting GDP: An application to Japan

In this paper, we discuss the approaches to nowcasting Japan’s GDP quarterly growth rates, comparing a variety of mixed frequency approaches including a bridge equation approach, Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) and factor-augmented version of these approaches. In doing so, we examine the usefulness of a novel sparse principal component analysis (SPCA) approach in extracting factors from the dataset. We also discuss the usefulness of forecast combination, considering various ways to combine forecasts from models and surveys. Our findings are summarized as follows. First, some of the mixed frequency models discussed in this paper record out-of-sample performance superior to a naïve constant growth model. Second, albeit small, the SPCA approach of extracting factors improves predictive power compared with traditional principal component approach. Furthermore, we find that there is a gain from combining model forecasts and professional survey forecasts.     

宏观经济信息与金融市场关联性——来自混频动态条件相关系数模型的证据

宏观经济信息是金融市场之间相互传递的重要信息内容,有效利用宏观经济信息是否有助于更好地理解金融市场关联性？为此,本文运用混频动态条件相关系数(DCC-MIDAS)模型分析了我国四个重要金融市场之间的动态相关性如何受到纳入的宏观经济信息的影响。结果发现:(1)工业增加值和货币供应量M2负向影响金融市场关联性,经济政策不确定性和通货膨胀水平反之。前三者是影响金融市场关联性较为重要的因素,而通货膨胀的重要性相对较低;(2)宏观经济信息作为市场关联性的长期成分相较基于市场信息的模型可以获得至少1.45%的效率提升。(3)工业增加值和通货膨胀对金融市场关联性的影响较为稳健,货币供应量M2和经济政策不确定性的影响表现出周期性特征。经济上行阶段工业增加值、货币政策信息带来的效率提升更为明显,经济下行阶段政策不确定性相对重要。本文研究结论对于加强金融监管协调和防范金融市场风险共振具有参考价值和指导意义。